Predicting New England Patriots' 2017 Starters After 1st Wave of Free Agency
Now that the bulk of the 2017 NFL free-agency period has passed, we have a pretty good idea of what the New England Patriots' roster is going to look like 2017. Actually, we should have a really good idea, since the Patriots don't currently hold a selection higher than a third-rounder in this year's draft.
Realistically, the core of New England's starting lineup should be similar to what it was in 2016—since, you know, the Patriots won a championship with it. However, some recent comings and goings will give the group a slightly different flavor.
Given what we've seen transpire in free agency—and what we can expect from the draft—let's take a look at what we might expect the Patriots' starting lineup to look like in 2017.
We'll run down each position group individually, focusing on the starters but digging into positional depth when applicable. We'll also try to point out where the team might benefit from adding to the position.
Quarterback: Tom Brady
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This one is pretty easy. Tom Brady might be almost 40, but he's still playing at a high level. He won his fifth Super Bowl last season and was rated first overall among quarterbacks by Pro Football Focus.
The Patriots are lucky to still have Brady, and they know it.
"We're privileged to have the greatest quarterback in the history of the game, and it looks like he's playing pretty solidly," team owner Robert Kraft said, via the team's official website. "He's off the charts, in my opinion, and we're lucky to have him."
As long as Brady is healthy, he'll be starting under center. Barring an unforeseen trade, Jimmy Garoppolo will play the backup role. However, we're likely to only see him or third quarterback Jacoby Brissett in mop-up duty.
Running Backs: Rex Burkhead, James Develin
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This is one of the positions the Patriots might want to address in the draft. As things stand, the team has three versatile backs, but no proven workhorse.
Given the contract the Patriots gave to free-agent acquisition Rex Burkhead—$3.1 million for one season—he might be the guy New England views as its lead ball-carrier. He has shown the ability to gain the tough yards between the tackles in the past but only on a limited basis.
Burkhead had just 87 carries in four years with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Sharing the load with Burkhead will probably be James White, the offensive hero of Super Bowl LI. Dion Lewis will likely serve in a receiving-back role, though we can expect him to garner some carries as well.
If the Patriots do add another back via the draft, they'll probably look for a bigger bruiser who can fill the role held by LeGarrette Blount last season.
James Develin should serve as the team's primary fullback.
Wide Receivers: Julian Edelman, Brandin Cooks
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One of the more amazing aspects of Brady's career has been the fact he's rarely operated with a legitimate difference-making No. 1-type receiver. For as good as guys like Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola can be, they're second and third options on most other rosters.
Well, the Patriots made a blockbuster trade during the offseason so that Brady has a true No. 1. The team sent a first-round pick to the New Orleans Saints in exchange for wideout Brandin Cooks.
Cooks, who racked up 1,173 yards in 2016, has the speed and the downfield ability to take the top off the defense. This should help Brady hit the big play and will open up underneath routes for shifty receivers like Edelman.
Cooks and Edelman figure to be New England's starting duo and were rated 27th and 31st, respectively, by Pro Football Focus last season.
Amendola's future becomes a bit murky after the acquisition of Cooks. He has a cap hit of nearly $8 million for 2017, which is a bit much for a third or fourth receiver. Of course, the Patriots are not desperate for cap space this year.
If Amendola does stay, he and Malcolm Mitchell will likely provide depth, while Chris Hogan gets on the field as a rotational deep threat and outside receiver when Edelman is in the slot.
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Tight Ends: Rob Gronkowski, Dwayne Allen
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The Patriots managed to reach and win Super Bowl LI without the aid of star tight end Rob Gronkowski. If the team is lucky, it won't have to do so again in 2017.
When healthy, Gronkowski is one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the entire league. He has 68 touchdowns in less than seven full seasons, and he should be one of Brady's top targets this season. He certainly appears ready to get to work.
"Having fun and all these days but literally can't wait to compete again and play ball," Gronkowski recently said, via Twitter.
Gronkowski's running mate at tight end this season will be Dwayne Allen, whom the Patriots traded for in the offseason. The 27-year-old is a young and athletic tight end who should thrive in the role held by Martellus Bennett last season.
If Gronkowski can stay healthy throughout the entire season, this should be the most dangerous tight-end duo in the NFL.
Offensive Tackles: Nate Solder, Marcus Cannon
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The Patriots should be set at the offensive tackle position in 2017. The team boasted two of the league's most efficient tackles a season ago in Nate Solder and Marcus Cannon, and they should lean on them again this year.
Pro Football Focus rated Solder and Cannon fifth and 11th overall, respectively, among all offensive tackles in 2016.
The Patriots don't have a ton of depth behind Solder and Cannon, though, and could look to add some through the draft.
The team could also look for an eventual replacement for Solder, whose contract expires after the 2017 season.
Interior O-Line: Shaq Mason, David Andrews, Joe Thuney
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New England should be able to roll with the guard combination of Shaq Mason and Joe Thuney again in 2017. Along with center David Andrews, the group anchored an offensive line that was rated third in run blocking for the 2016 season by Pro Football Focus.
If the Patriots decide to bring in any real competition for the interior line, it will probably be to compete with second-year man Thuney. While it's impressive that he was able to start all 16 games as a rookie, he was rated just 138th overall among guards by Pro Football Focus.
According to Pro Football Focus, Thuney allowed the second-most quarterback pressures among guards with 32.
Tre' Jackson will likely provide depth and could find his way into the guard rotation. He started nine games back in 2015.
Defensive Ends: Trey Flowers, Kony Ealy
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One of New England's defensive ends spots will be locked down by Trey Flowers. He was the Patriots' best pass-rusher in 2016 and one of the team's better defensive lineman. He produced 7.0 sacks and was rated 14th overall among 4-3 defensive ends by Pro Football Focus.
The other starting-end spot will likely be held by Kony Ealy, whom the Patriots traded for earlier in the offseason. He started 15 games over the past two seasons for the Carolina Panthers but could become a true star in New England.
"They're getting a guy that I think hasn't quite really, truly tapped his potential," Panthers head coach Ron Rivera said of Ealy, per Doug Kyed of NESN.com.
Guys like Rob Ninkovich and recently acquired Guy Lawrence should provide depth at the position, though New England may want to look for more in the draft. The team lost both Chris Long and Jabaal Sheard in free agency.
Sheard and Long were rated 15th and 31st among 4-3 ends by Pro Football Focus, respectively.
Defensive Tackes: Malcom Brown, Alan Branch
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New England had a good group of interior defensive linemen last season, and the bulk of them should remain in the starting lineup this season.
Since the Patriots like to utilize rotations and different looks with their defensive line, some of their defensive tackles and ends are often interchangeable. Their two main interior linemen last season, though, were Malcom Brown and Alan Branch.
Branch and Brown were rated 17th and 22nd, respectively, among defensive tackles by Pro Football Focus in 2016.
The Patriots have quality depth at the position in Woodrow Hamilton and Vince Valentine. We could also see Lawrence, who weighs in at 305 pounds, in the tackle rotation as well.
Linebackers: Dont'a Hightower, Shea McClellin, Kyle Van Noy
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This is another area the Patriots might try to upgrade through the draft. As of now, the team has one star and a nice supporting cast, but it could use an influx of linebacker talent.
The linebacker corps starts and ends with Dont'a Hightower. In addition to being the defensive hero of Super Bowl LI, he is one of the top linebackers playing the game today. New England brought him back on a new four-year, $35.5 million deal.
The beauty of having Hightower is that he can play both inside and outside, which gives the Patriots fluidity with their linebacker rotation.
Likely starting alongside the 27-year-old will be Shea McClellin and Kyle Van Noy. They are serviceable linebackers, but they aren't stars on the same level as Hightower.
If New England can find a quality linebacker in the draft to replace one of them in the starting rotation, the team may pull the trigger.
Ninkovich can sometimes be found in the linebacker rotation as well as the defensive-end rotation.
Cornerbacks: Malcolm Butler, Stephon Gilmore
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The only real mystery surrounding New England's cornerbacks this season is the future of Malcolm Butler.
He wasn't given a contract extension and has seemed pretty unhappy about it. He has yet to sign his restricted free-agent tender and has mentioned that he would like to find a long-term deal elsewhere.
Butler met extensively with the New Orleans Saints, but Kraft has made it sound like the Patriots don't intend to trade Butler.
"We have an offer sheet out to him and I know he has the ability to go out in the market and get someone to sign him," Kraft said, per Kevin Patra of NFL.com. "I hope he's with us and signs his offer sheet and plays for us."
Butler was rated fifth overall among cornerbacks by Pro Football Focus last season. If he's on the roster, he's starting.
The other starter will be Stephon Gilmore, who was given a five-year, $65 million deal in free agency. The Patriots obviously came to respect him during his time with the Buffalo Bills and wouldn't have handed out that much cash to not start him.
Guys like Eric Rowe and Cyrus Jones will provide depth.
Safeties: Patrick Chung, Devin McCourty
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New England boasts a pretty good safety duo in Patrick Chung and Devin McCourty. The two helped forge a pass-coverage unit that was rated first by Pro Football Focus last season.
McCourty is one of the league's best free safeties, and he was rated fourth overall among all safeties by Pro Football Focus in 2016. There's simply no questioning his position at the back end of New England's defense.
The Patriots could choose to bring in competition for Chung, who will turn 30 this summer and who appeared to take a step back last season. New England might be able to land a promising strong safety in the draft. However, it seems unlikely this would prompt the Patriots to boot Chung out of the starting role before the regular season kicks off.
Duron Harmon, who was inked to a new contract this offseason, was kind of like a third starter last season. He rotated between both safety spots and saw 508 defensive snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. He should be right back in the safety rotation this year.
Special Teams: Stephen Gostkowski, Ryan Allen
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Kicker Stephen Gostkowski had a bit of a down year in 2016. He made just 84.4 percent of his field goals and also gained a newfound issue with extra points.
However, the 33-year-old has been consistent in the past, and the team is unlikely to move on from him unless his struggles continue in the regular season.
Gostkowski's ability to pin opponents deep with targeted kickoffs is a valuable tool.
Ryan Allen also had a relatively underwhelming year in 2016. He was rated just 28th among punters by Pro Football Focus. New England will likely stick by him, though it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Patriots bring in some competition during camp.
A bigger question mark exists at the position of return specialist. Amendola was the team's best returner in 2016, but after acquiring Cooks, it's fair to wonder if the Patriots will keep him. Edelman is another strong option, but the Patriots probably won't want to tax their leading wideout.
Cyrus Jones got a look at the returner role but fumbled far too often last season. He probably won't be back in the rotation. Don't be surprised if New England targets players with return ability in the draft.
*All contract information via Spotrac.com.
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