NFL Draft 2017: 7 Ways Free Agency Has Reshaped the Draft
Three days into the new league year, the majority of impact players have already signed or re-signed with teams. While top players signing not only affects the teams they sign with and the long-term markets for the position, it also impacts the NFL draft.
Free agency may be the second-largest event of the offseason, but the entire offseason builds up and dies off based on the NFL draft, when teams are able to load up on college talent with long-term, fixed contracts. Specific players signing with, or leaving, franchises across the league impact how we should view the top-50 picks pretty drastically already.
We'll explain how seven situations league-wide were altered after the first 72 hours of free agency and what that means for prospects in late April.
The Indianapolis Colts Have Their Pass-Rushers
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While they aren't sexy names, the Indianapolis Colts still invested a lot of capital on pass-rushers in the first three days of free agency, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. The Colts have been on the wrong end of pass-rushers lately, as they traded away Jerry Hughes, a former-first round pick turned double-digit sack artist, and blew a first-round pick on Bjoern Werner, who is now out of the league, in 2013.
The outside linebackers the team added were Jabaal Sheard, John Simon and Barkevious Mingo, with Sheard and Mingo both coming from the New England Patriots.
Sheard, one of four second-round edge defenders since 2005 with three seven-sack seasons, signed a three-year deal worth $25.5 million, according to Zac Jackson of Pro Football Talk. Simon, who was a complementary rusher next to J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus in Houston, signed a three-year deal worth $13.5 million, per Aaron Wilson of the Houston Chronicle.
If you invest $39 million between two players, they're at least going to compete for a starting job. Mingo, a former top-10 pick, signed a one-year, $2 million "prove-it deal," according to the Indianapolis Star's Stephen Holder.
The Philadelphia Eagles Are out of the Receiver Market
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There are two major players at receiver who the team invested high draft picks in before Chip Kelly was fired: 2014 second-round pick Jordan Matthews and 2015 first-round pick Nelson Agholor. Ever since DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin left town, the team has needed help at receiver, but the pairing of the two haven't been able to get it done at this point.
This team clearly wants to build around their young passer Carson Wentz, who they mortgaged their franchise on last season, which is why they're paying Lane Johnson, a right tackle, like a top-end left tackle. Many expected receiver to be a position that the team targeted this offseason, and those people were 100 percent correct.
Torrey Smith was cut from the San Francisco 49ers by the franchise's new leadership, but he has since signed with the Eagles on a three-year, $15 million deal, according to ESPN.com's Adam Schefter. The squad also brought in Alshon Jeffery, expected to be the top receiver on the market, on a one-year, $9.5 million "prove-it deal," according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN.
Between Matthews, who is talented enough to be at least a top-three receiver on the majority of NFL teams, Smith and Jeffery, there's little room to invest at receiver. That's not even including Dorial Green-Beckham, a former second-round pick who the team traded for last offseason, and Agholor, a former first-round pick, who are projected to play off the bench at this point.
The Chicago Bears Have a Quarterback Body
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The Jay Cutler saga in Chicago lasted longer than many expected, with the quarterback throwing himself from the brink under offensive coordinator Adam Gase in 2015. When Gase took the Miami Dolphins head-coaching vacancy in 2016, Cutler regressed to the "same old Jay," which meant the end for the marriage.
The Bears earned the third overall pick in the upcoming draft, and there was speculation that the team could use that pick on a quarterback, but there isn't a consensus as to whether any of the quarterbacks in this draft class are surefire first-round picks. That made projecting what Chicago, who on paper had no options to start at quarterback in 2017, would do at the top of the draft.
Then came the Mike Glennon rumors. Glennon was a backup passer for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who, after being drafted in the third round by the team in 2013, threw for a combined 11 passes over the last two seasons behind first overall pick Jameis Winston.
In total, Glennon has a career record of 5-13 as a starter. Statistically, he's about Trevor Siemian. His contract now reads "three years, $45 million," though, and that tells you what the Bears think of him in the immediate future. A team who invested that much in a passer should feel no pressure to draft a quarterback at the top of the draft, whether or not we on the outside believe the quarterback is or isn't talented enough to be a 16-game starter.
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The New Orleans Saints Have Firepower
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After months of rumors regarding the New Orleans Saints moving receiver Brandin Cooks, the team finally traded him to the New England Patriots for a package which included a first-round pick, giving them two in the upcoming NFL draft. Immediately after that, the team signed Ted Ginn Jr. from the Carolina Panthers, who should give quarterback Drew Brees a speed receiver to pair with second-year standout Michael Thomas.
On the offensive line, the team has Terron Armstead, Andrus Peat, Max Unger, Larry Warford and Zach Strief listed as starters. The team just signed tight end Coby Fleener last season, and Mark Ingram is the top back in that backfield. Their offense is locked in.
On the other side of the ball, though, it's a different story. The team needs another pass-rushing end to pair with Cameron Jordan, though defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and Nick Fairley are locked in for at least the next three seasons. The team could also use help at cornerback.
With two first-round picks and their two biggest needs being at the most valued defensive positions, could the Saints use those selections to move up in the draft, potentially in the top five picks, to draft talents like Ohio State cornerback Marshon Lattimore or Stanford defensive end Solomon Thomas?
They're a major player to watch moving forward. Teams with two first-round picks rarely stay posted on Day 1 of the draft.
The Minnesota Vikings Are Done at Tackle
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We may never see a collapse due to offensive line play like we saw with the 2016 Minnesota Vikings. Early on, they looked like NFC favorites, but when it was evident that their offensive line was a massive weakness, the team buckled.
Tackle T.J. Clemmings is still on the roster and tackle Matt Kalil somehow signed a megadeal with the Carolina Panthers to play with his brother, Ryan, but the Vikings were able to address their bookend issues in free agency, a move that needed to be done without a first-round pick. There were no promises that a starting caliber tackle was going to fall where Minnesota was picking in the second round, so the options were to either A) sign two starters in free agency or B) package picks to move up in the draft.
The team executed option A by signing both Riley Reiff of the NFC North rival Detroit Lions and Mike Remmers of the Carolina Panthers. Reiff, who was moved from left tackle to right tackle for 2016 first-round pick Taylor Decker last season, signed a five-year, $58.75 million deal, which one would presume would lead to him becoming the blindside bookend.
Remmers, formerly the right tackle of the Panthers, signed a five-year, $30 million deal, which one would presume would make him the right tackle for right-handed quarterback Sam Bradford. The team now has the eighth-highest paid left tackle in football and the ninth-highest paid right tackle in football, with Clemmings, a now third-year fourth-round pick, coming off the bench.
You can assume they've checked that box internally.
The Buffalo Bills Need Receivers
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If you say "Buffalo Bills receiver," the first name that is going to come to mind is Sammy Watkins. Watkins was the best receiver prospect in the 2014 draft class, and the team traded up to select him, so there's nothing wrong with that.
With that being said, Watkins hasn't lived up to expectations in Buffalo as of yet, mostly due to injury, and that's left the Bills in a weird predicament: Do they want to build around him in the passing game or not?
The option has since been taken out of their hands, as Robert Woods signed with the Los Angeles Rams and Marquise Goodwin signed with the San Francisco 49ers. Woods, a possession receiver, signed a five-year, $39 million deal, while Goodwin, a speed receiver, signed a two-year, $8 million deal.
The team's leading wideout is now Watkins, who had 28 receptions for 430 yards and three touchdowns in 2016. The only other receivers on the roster are Walter Powell, who took 14 receptions for 142 yards and no scores in 2016, and Dezmin Lewis, who has never caught a ball in the regular season.
Buffalo's under-contract receivers combined for 42 receptions in 2016. That's something that will need to be worked on moving forward.
The Jacksonville Jaguars Will Draft Offense-Heavy
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The Jacksonville Jaguars lost games in 2016 because of the talent of the offensive side of the ball, not the talent of the defensive side of the ball. That didn't stop the team from investing on defense this offseason, though.
The team signed Calais Campbell, a former 3-4 defensive end for the Arizona Cardinals, to a four-year, $60 million deal. They also stole A.J. Bouye, a 25-year-old cornerback from their AFC South rival Houston Texans, for a five-year, $67.5 million contract.
They have few holes on defense now. On the line of scrimmage, they have a weak-side edge-rusher in Yannick Ngakoue, a strong-side end in Campbell and two talented tackles in Malik Jackson and Roy Miller.
At off-the-ball linebacker, they have Telvin Smith, Paul Posluszny and Myles Jack. At defensive back, they have cornerbacks Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, and safeties Tashaun Gipson and new signing Barry Church of the Dallas Cowboys.
The Jaguars have the fourth, 35th, 68th, 110th, 148th, 187th, 222nd and 240th picks in the upcoming NFL draft, and plenty of cap space still to spend. Expect the vast majority of these remaining assets to be used on the offensive side of the ball.
This team is just a little offensive line talent and a top back away from being able to claim that they're "a quarterback away," if some quarterback, notably New England's Jimmy Garoppolo, hits the open market next offseason.
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