Remaining Regular-Season Games with Major 2017 NCAA Tournament Implications

If the journey to make the NCAA tournament was a horse race, we'd be in the stretch run. But this is no ordinary race, since instead of paying attention to the leaders ahead of the pack, it's much more important how those in the middle of the field finish up.

Those are the equine equivalent of the bubble teams, the chasers that aren't quite good enough right now to challenge the front-runners but still feel they deserve a chance to compete for a title. And considering how Syracuse went from the bubble to the Final Four last year, everyone in this group should be given their shot.

Doing well in key games during the final week of the regular season can help this cause. Wins or losses won't make or break their NCAA tourney hopes—since the upcoming conference tournaments still provide an avenue to the bid—but being victorious will go a long way toward ensuring they make the field.

We've picked out 10 games set to be played this week that will have major NCAA tournament implications. Most involve bubble teams that can't afford many more losses, but a few will help decide conference regular-season titles or bids to their league's tourney.

Kansas State Wildcats at TCU Horned Frogs

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

When: Wednesday, March 1

Neither Kansas State nor TCU would be in the NCAA tournament if the field was picked today, the result of their combined 12-20 record in Big 12 play and weak nonconference schedules. But neither is completely out of it, either, and not just because one can still win the conference tourney next week in Kansas City.

Their meeting in Fort Worth will effectively be an elimination game from at-large consideration, since for TCU (17-12, 6-10) it would mean a sixth consecutive loss while Kansas State (17-12, 6-10) has dropped eight of 10. Amazingly, though, the Wildcats' only wins in that stretch were on the road, including a 56-54 win at then-No. 4 Baylor in early February.

TCU is 4-4 at home in Big 12 play, its best win against Iowa State in mid-January, while it won at K-State in overtime in their previous meeting.

UPDATE: Kansas State won 75-74 at TCU behind 20 points from Dean Wade.

Marquette Golden Eagles at Xavier Musketeers

Darren Hauck/Associated Press

When: Wednesday, March 1

Remember when Xavier was a top-10 team? It wasn't that long ago, actually, as the Musketeers spent almost all of November near the top of the rankings.

But the Musketeers (18-11, 8-8 Big East) head into March not just unranked but in serious danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013. Sunday's home loss to Butler was Xavier's fifth consecutive and there are no remaining regular-season opponents for it to get an RPI boost from, but there are opportunities to further hurt its resume.

That starts with Marquette, which itself is in a perilous position. The Golden Eagles (17-11, 8-8) lost at fellow bubble team Providence on Saturday, which Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller referred to as "a big no-no" and further diminishes the value of their January win over Villanova.

Marquette beat Xavier by 22 at home less than two weeks ago, a game that saw freshman guard Markus Howard erupt for 34 points, including nine of 12 three-pointers. He leads the nation in three-point shooting at 55.4 percent, and the Golden Eagles could use another big game from him to keep their bubble from bursting.

UPDATE: Marquette completed the season sweep of Xavier with a 95-84 road victory.

Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats

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When: Wednesday, March 1

Anyone who doesn't know Northwestern's heart-wrenching college basketball history, particularly its status as one of the five original Division I programs never to make the NCAA tournament, has either been living under a rock or doesn't follow any sports writers on Twitter. Many such scribes, not just the alumni, have rode the rollercoaster of the Wildcats' postseason hopes over the years, and this season has been particularly tumultuous.

For every time Northwestern (20-9, 9-7 Big Ten) has been deemed a "lock" to make its first-ever NCAA tourney appearance, such as after winning six league games in January or when it won at Wisconsin on Feb. 12, the Wildcats have fallen back to Earth via five losses in their last seven games, including two straight to Illinois and Indiana.

They're home for the final week, but that doesn't make it any easier, not with those games against a surging Michigan (19-10, 9-7) and conference-leading Purdue (23-6, 12-4).

Michigan's NCAA invite looks fairly safe, but a rough last week could mean the Wolverines would have to win at least once in the Big Ten tournament to be a lock. After visiting Northwestern, they finish against a Nebraska team that is 12-16 but has wins over Maryland and Purdue.

UPDATE: Northwestern pulled out a 67-65 home win over Michigan thanks to Dererk Pardon's layup at the buzzer. Pardon scored on a full-court pass from Nathan Taphorn.

Michigan State Spartans at Illinois Fighting Illini

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When: Wednesday, March 1

Way back in September we went out on a limb and tabbed Illinois as an "under-the-radar" team that could do some damage this season. The thinking behind this was that the Fighting Illini, after several rough seasons in which injuries and other issues impacted their play, had a veteran team that was primed to do damage in a Big Ten that seemed top heavy but lacked much depth after the top few teams.

Yet Illinois (17-12, 7-9) enters the final week of the regular season in ninth place in the Big Ten and listed on only a small number of brackets tracked by Bracket Matrix. And it's only getting that much consideration because of a three-game win streak that includes a victory over Northwestern.

The Illini can get closer to their first NCAA tourney bid since 2013 by knocking off a team that's trying to hold on to what would be a 20th consecutive trip to March Madness. Michigan State (18-11, 10-6) has moved into a tie for third in the Big Ten by winning six of eight, including Sunday's victory over Wisconsin.

MSU is 2-5 in league road games, including a loss to Penn State that was played at The Palestra in Philadelphia. Another defeat in Big Ten play would give the Spartans seven in a season for the first time since going 9-9 in 2010-11.

UPDATE: Illinois edged Michigan State 73-70 behind 22 points from Malcolm Hill.

VCU Rams at Dayton Flyers

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When: Wednesday, March 1

By all accounts, both Dayton and VCU are headed to the NCAA tournament regardless of whether one or the other (or neither) wins the Atlantic 10 Conference's automatic bid. They could be the only ones from the league to make the dance — though Rhode Island is also in the mix — while everyone else would probably need to win the A-10 tourney.

From a league standpoint, it would be in its best interest to have someone other than Dayton (23-5, 14-2) or VCU (23-6, 13-3) to get that automatic bid to ensure at least three teams get in, but don't tell that to the Flyers or Rams. Each will want to win the conference tournament as well as the regular-season title, which is on the line when they meet.

VCU fell out of a first-place tie by losing 69-59 at Rhode Island on Saturday, a day after Dayton rallied to win in overtime at Davidson for its eighth straight victory. The Flyers have won 11 of 12, their only loss in that span by five at VCU in late January.

Dayton has won 13 straight home games, its last loss coming in mid-November to Saint Mary's.

UPDATE: Dayton got 20 points apiece from Charles Cooke and Scoochie Smith in a 79-72 home win over VCU to clinch the Atlantic 10 regular-season title.

California Golden Bears at Utah Utes

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

When: Thursday, March 2

The Pac-12 is arguably the most top-heavy league in the country, with three legitimate Final Four contenders in Arizona, Oregon and UCLA. After that there's a steep drop-off with no other teams assured of making the NCAA tournament at this time.

USC is the Pac-12's most likely team to get a fourth bid, but at 8-8, it sits in sixth place in the standings entering the final week. That's two games behind California (19-9, 10-6) and a game behind Utah (18-10, 9-7), each of which is on the bubble and unable to afford many more losses.

Cal won Friday to end a three-game skid that included losses to Arizona and Oregon by a combined eight points, the Oregon loss coming after the Golden Bears blew a 16-point lead. The Golden Bears are 4-6 outside of Berkeley this season and have lost their last two trips to Utah but beat the Utes at home in overtime Feb. 2.

Utah will need more than a sweep of Cal and Stanford this weekend to get into the NCAA tourney, since its nonconference strength of schedule (230) is horrendous. The Utes are 1-9 against top-100 RPI teams, the victory coming at home against USC in mid-January, but both Cal and Stanford provide chances to improve that record.

UPDATE: Utah rolled to a 74-44 home win over Cal.

Colorado State Rams at Nevada Wolf Pack

Ethan Miller/Getty Images

When: Saturday, March 4

Find another conference more unpredictable than the Mountain West, we dare you. Preseason favorite San Diego State is in sixth place with an 8-8 record, one game ahead of the San Jose State team that was picked to finish in last.

Colorado State (20-9, 12-4) was picked seventh but finds itself tied for first with Nevada (23-6, 12-4) entering the final week. They'll play for the conference title—as well as the top seed in next week's MWC tournament—in the regular-season finale.

It will be their first meeting of the season, a quirk that comes with an unbalanced schedule in an 11-team league.

Nevada has been at or near the top of the standings all season, a four-game win streak that includes beating third-place Boise State helping that cause. Colorado State has won six in a row and nine of 10 after opening with a 3-3 record.

The Mountain West is very likely a one-bid league, so getting the top seed for the conference tournament will go a long way toward either Colorado State or Nevada being that qualifier. However, 2013 was the last time the top seed won this tourney.

UPDATE: Nevada pulled away in the second half for an 85-70 win, clinching its first Mountain West regular-season title since 2012.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Syracuse Orange

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When: Saturday, March 4

The fact Georgia Tech is even remotely in the conversation for the NCAA tournament entering March is possibly the biggest surprise of the 2016-17 season. Not much was expected of the Yellow Jackets under first-year coach Josh Pastner, with CBS' Jon Rothstein going so far as to say they wouldn't win a game in the ACC.

Tech (16-13, 7-9) hasn't just far exceeded expectations; it's pulled off some pretty notable wins, beating regular-season ACC champion North Carolina as well as Florida State and Notre Dame. But those were all at home, with the Yellow Jackets 2-9 on the road, including winless in league play.

Compare that to Syracuse (17-13, 9-8) and its 7-1 home record against ACC teams that includes beating Duke last week and both Florida State and Virginia earlier in the season. The Orange's only home ACC loss came in overtime to Louisville.

In addition to trying to improve their NCAA tourney resumes, Georgia Tech and Syracuse are also trying to avoid finishing 10th or worst in the ACC. Doing so would mean having to play in the opening round of the conference tournament, requiring five games in as many days to win it all.

UPDATE: Syracuse rolled to a 90-61 win over Georgia Tech.

Harvard Crimson at Penn Quakers

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When: Saturday, March 4

Had this been a year ago, Harvard's entire season would come down to Friday's visit to Princeton. Win and it would remain in contention for the Ivy League title and the league's automatic bid, which until the 2016-17 season had always been given to its regular-season champion.

But the Ivy finally decided to join the conference tournament party this year, introducing a four-team event set for March 11-12. And because of this, Harvard's game at first-place Princeton (19-6, 12-0) won't have nearly as much impact as when the Crimson (18-7, 10-2) wrap up the regular season a day later at Penn.

The reason: Penn's home court is The Palestra, where the Ivy League tourney is being held. The Quakers (12-13, 5-7) are tied with Columbia for fourth place and can finish as high as tied for third with Yale, in which case they'd earn the No. 3 seed. And potentially face Harvard again on their home court.

Whatever the case, if Penn gets into the tourney—NYC Buckets has broken down all the tiebreaker scenarios—then it's going to be a tough out playing in front of its own fans in a win-or-go-home atmosphere.

UPDATE: Penn beat Harvard 75-72 to earn the No. 4 seed into the Ivy League tourney.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Virginia Tech Hokies

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When: Saturday, March 4

The tremendous depth in the ACC can best be illustrated by the strong at-large consideration being given to teams with sub-.500 conference records. We've already mentioned Georgia Tech's NCAA tournament hopes, and now it's Wake Forest's turn, which like the Yellow Jackets didn't seem like very good heading into this season.

The Demon Deacons (16-12, 7-9) have only one win against a top-50 RPI team, beating Miami by 17 at home in mid-January, but they also don't have any bad losses to sub-100 teams as is the case with many other bubble schools. Their situation is of the beat-the-bad-teams-but-lose-to-the-good-ones variety, but because of how well-regarded the ACC is, that's kept the Deacons in the hunt for their first NCAA bid since 2010.

Beating Louisville at home Wednesday would make for a huge resume-builder, possibly lifting Wake off the bubble and solidly into the field pending how the ACC tournament goes. But so, too, could ending the regular season with a win at Virginia Tech (21-8, 10-8) since it would be only Wake's third road win in league play.

Virginia Tech beat Miami (Florida) 66-61 on Monday to all but assure its first NCAA tourney appearance since 2007, though holding off Wake in its regular-season finale wouldn't hurt.

UPDATE: Wake Forest won 89-84 at Virginia Tech.

All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information courtesy of Scout.com, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.