Power Ranking the Champions League Last 16 on Chance of Final Victory
The round of 16 in this season's Champions League has been extraordinary so far; after the first leg of each tie we've had 34 goals—some of them incredible team or individual efforts—and already more than one surprising result.
Even though there's still another 90 minutes to play for each pair of teams, some will be feeling they've quickly gotten one foot into the quarter-finals—and some will be despairing at having already let the chance of glory slip away.
Here, we rank all 16 sides according to their likelihood of emerging victorious in May, taking into account first-leg scores as well as team talent and penchant for success.
16. Arsenal
1 of 16
As predictable as a sunrise, Arsenal collapsed in brutal fashion when they came up against a top side, crumbling not only in terms of the result, but with their mentality and tactical game plan. They didn't give themselves any chance of staying in the tie once they went a few behind.
Even an emergency loan of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo wouldn't save them in the second leg, because the team as a whole have a severe deficiency of mental resilience and surrendered too much ground to Bayern Munich in a 5-1 defeat.
Expect a minor comeback in the second leg now the pressure is off—the real Arsenal way of doing things—but the Gunners are out, in the last 16, again.
15. Bayer Leverkusen
2 of 16
Bayer Leverkusen are above Arsenal only by virtue of scoreline and opponent, but realistically, they are as dead in the competition as the Gunners.
It's not just that they lost 4-2 and conceded four away goals, but it's also because their opponents are Atletico Madrid. One of the most determined, resilient and mentally powerful sides in all of Europe, Diego Simeone's team are unlikely to let the lead slip, and even if they do, Los Rojiblancos have the fortitude to pick themselves back up and go again.
Against all of that, Leverkusen have to admit that while their XI contains some extremely talented players, they're simply not as good as Atletico overall, certainly not on a man-to-man basis across the side.
14. FC Porto
3 of 16
FC Porto were always facing a tough test against Juventus, and their ultra-conservative approach to the first leg at home implied as much.
The task was made that much more difficult by two reckless lunges within 80 seconds of each other by left-back Alex Telles; two yellows and one red card later, the Portuguese outfit were facing more than an hour with 10 men.
They didn't cave, to their credit, but few teams can hold out against Juventus, and even though the Italians weren't at their best, two away goals conceded is a lot for Porto to overcome in Turin.
13. Barcelona
4 of 16
Perhaps more than any other of the defeated sides, there's still a small amount of belief that Barcelona could pull the 4-0 deficit back against Paris Saint-Germain, simply because they are Barcelona.
Top-class players, a devastating attack and a reputation based on name alone can all win matches, but none of that was on show against PSG first time out. They might win the game, but they almost certainly won't win the tie.
Barca are still ranked higher than the other heavily beaten sides because, if each of them were to surprisingly overcome their opponents, it would still be Barca who had the best chance of lifting the trophy in May.
12. Leicester City
5 of 16
Leicester City's horrid season looked like finally expanding into Europe when they went two down against Sevilla, but between goalkeeping heroics and a timely away goal, they're still in with a sniff of progression thanks to the 2-1 final score.
The Foxes have to improve their performance markedly on recent weeks (even months) and are still up against it, but at least they're still in touch of their Spanish opponents—which is more than many would have expected, certainly after their slow start.
Even if they turn things around in the second leg, they're unlikely to go on and win the Champions League itself—although, wasn't that what everybody said about the Premier League last season?
11. Napoli
6 of 16
Napoli are 3-1 down after the first leg, yet they could feasibly be heading home with a reversed scoreline or even better.
Real Madrid struck a couple of wondergoals and Napoli missed a barrel-load of chances, but they carved open Los Blancos so many times that it's impossible to write off the chances of a comeback.
They're up against it, and Real will probably net an away goal to cancel out Napoli's own strike, so the Partenopei can't possibly be ranked higher.
However, Napoli are one of the small handful of clubs who possess the attacking armoury to really trouble Madrid. Going on the offensive is their best bet, but a far more clinical edge is required to reach the last eight.
10. Benfica
7 of 16
A win and a clean sheet is everything Benfica could have hoped for from their first leg against Borussia Dortmund, but they were extremely fortunate to emerge unscathed in the 1-0 victory and must know that BVB won't be so forgiving, or perhaps so wasteful, next time out.
Still, worse teams than Benfica have produced a committed rearguard action that has led to heroic progression, and the knowledge that a clean sheet would seal Benfica's path to the next round gives them all the motivation they need to produce the performance of the season.
They're not going to win the trophy, but reaching the last eight and knocking out a big team en route would be impressive enough.
9. Borussia Dortmund
8 of 16
The only team to be ranked higher than the opponents they lost to, Borussia Dortmund are still going to be seen as big favourites to emerge past Benfica despite that 1-0 defeat in the first leg.
An out-of-form Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, wasteful finishing and luck not going the German side's way all contributed to that loss, and the chances of it all happening in exactly the same fashion in the second leg are remote.
Thomas Tuchel's side are far from infallible, but when on their game, they are capable of ripping any defence to shreds.
The sheer number of options in the final third surely means someone will find a way through, and if they get one, they can score several.
On an even footing, Dortmund perhaps have more of a chance of winning the Champions League this season than some other sides ranked higher here, but having to come from behind first is the point: they're not on an even footing.
There's work to do for BVB, but they are certainly capable of doing it.
8. Monaco
9 of 16
Like Dortmund, AS Monaco are trailing at the halfway point of the tie, but unlike Dortmund, Monaco have already displayed exactly why their offensive weapons can see them turn around the scoreline in the second leg.
Bernardo Silva, Kylian Mbappe and Radamel Falcao absolutely tore Manchester City apart in spells in the 5-3 loss, and that was without Thomas Lemar really getting involved in the way he can.
Monaco need that quartet to be at their peak again and the defence to perform somewhat better, but a two-goal margin of victory looked within them for most of the first leg—it's certainly within their grasp for the second, at home.
Three away goals scored, don't forget.
7. Manchester City
10 of 16
Precisely because of their own defensive paucity and the potential danger in the second leg from Monaco's attack, there's still a lot of uncertainty about Manchester City's own ability to progress much further.
They're two up, so should go through, but defensive weaknesses have been prevalent throughout the campaign for Pep Guardiola's team.
City are not yet as strong or resilient as Europe's true elite sides this season, and they shouldn't really be considered among the front-runners at this stage even if they do reach the last eight.
But each step closer is another chance to improve, to become a more well-rounded side, and goals are clearly in this side, too.
6. Sevilla
11 of 16
Sevilla aren't quite over the finishing line, having spurned a number of chances to kill off Leicester City in the first leg, but there's enough tactical intelligence and creative brilliance in the team to net at least once on the road.
Gone are last season's away-day troubles for Sevilla and, despite not having an absolute killer striker in their ranks, the rotating cast of support forwards are all capable of contributing to both the creation and scoring of goals.
They should progress, and they have already shown this season that they can trouble the biggest sides in Spain.
In Europe (in the Champions League at least), there's lots to prove, but they are one to watch in the latter stages nonetheless, and much of the squad is used to lifting silverware and coping with the pressure that comes with it.
5. Atletico Madrid
12 of 16
In a commanding position from the first leg and one of the most consistent teams in Europe in recent seasons, Atletico Madrid will be a tough team to stop once again.
They should be comfortably through to the last eight past Leverkusen, but in general, they have been below their best this season. It could end up seeing them go a little short, considering how consistent some of the other top sides are, but few teams have Atleti's self-belief.
That counts for as much as attacking intent at times, and they do still have the attackers to reach the final, as they did last season.
4. Paris Saint-Germain
13 of 16
Before the first leg, most viewers were expecting Barcelona to triumph; since the first leg, it seems most onlookers expect PSG to go on and walk the entire competition.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle: they certainly have enough quality to compete at the top end, but it only takes one or two deficiencies to fall short in this tough competition.
How often can PSG pull out a performance to mirror the one that destroyed Barcelona? Another two or three times? They'll need to do it six times to go all the way.
3. Real Madrid
14 of 16
In a commanding position despite not necessarily being the best team in the first leg, Real Madrid are the reigning champions and will be the first team that rivals look at as needing to get past to lift the trophy this year.
Under Zinedine Zidane, the Spanish side have had remarkable success, but there's still a lingering issue in the team of not always being as dominant as they might be—and they're certainly not as tight at the back as they'll have to be to retain the trophy.
No team has won the Champions League in back-to-back seasons. Real Madrid have the talent to do it, but teams can also exploit their weaknesses.
2. Juventus
15 of 16
Although nowhere near their best against Porto, Juventus still dominated, were comfortable and picked up a probably unassailable lead.
Finishing the job in professional style is probably on the agenda for the second leg, rather than in glamorous and relentless fashion, but this Juve side can do both.
Coming up against one of the biggest sides early on would give us a better idea of whether Juve are really ready to go all the way this year, but they certainly have the big-name individuals and tactical cohesion to reach the final.
The Old Lady have arguably the best back line in the competition and more than one proponent of magic in the final third. This could finally be their year.
1. Bayern Munich
16 of 16
Bayern must have been licking their lips when the draw was made, and they certainly made good on their ability to cruise through to the quarters by playing at full capacity in the first leg.
To not go through from this point at 5-1 up would take a collapse that would be as surprising as Arsenal going on to win the competition.
The Bavarian side have a remarkably complete and deep squad, have consistent talent throughout the side and have a few players who still have something to prove, too—a near-perfect blend to provide the impetus and desire to go all the way.
Few teams can stop Bayern Munich, and they could be the team to succeed Real Madrid and win this season's Champions League.
