Making the Call on Dallas Cowboys' Top Free Agents
As great as the Dallas Cowboys 2016 season was, the 2017 squad will likely look much different. Each year, more than 20 percent of the roster is churned, and 2017 projects a year where that number may rise even higher. Several key components of the 2016 team are set to hit free agency in March, and with little cap room, it's unlikely most will return for revenge in the playoffs.
What will make this free agency period interesting is that Dallas has multiple free agents at the same position, such as Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne, Barry Church and J.J. Wilcox, Terrance Williams and Brice Butler, etc. Will they choose familiarity and reliability over age and upside? Will they bring both players back or neither? Let's take a look at some of the Dallas Cowboys' top free agents heading into the 2017 offseason.
CB Morris Claiborne
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For the second time in consecutive years, the former sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft will find himself entering the free-agent market. At 27 years old, Morris Claiborne should be negotiating his biggest payday of his career. But Morris Claiborne's story has changed much since entering the NFL. A magnificent talent, Claiborne was playing like a top corner in 2016. According to the NFL1000, Morris Claiborne graded out as the 19th best cornerback in the NFL in 2016. He finally started to grasp the defensive system, and with Joe Baker taking over the role as secondary coach, he looked like he was finally reaching that top-pick potential.
But once again, injuries shortened Claiborne's season and likely any hope he had of getting a long-term deal in Dallas or anywhere else for that matter. After suffering a groin injury, he missed the final nine games of the season, returning only for the divisional round game against the Green Bay Packers. In five years with the Cowboys, he's only been able to play a total of 2,602 snaps on defense. That's less than half of the total defensive snaps in the same time span. He's just not someone you can count on for 16 games.
Claiborne's length, quickness and ability to play with physicality at the line of scrimmage is what will entice teams, including the Dallas Cowboys, into paying him this offseason. The Cowboys will likely offer a deal that will be similar to what he received last year: one year for $5 million. A "prove-it" deal of sorts. But with teams constantly looking for help in the secondary, it won't be surprising if Claiborne decides to take his talents elsewhere for more long-term stability. If the Cowboys decide to let him leave, it's likely they will need to address their cornerback need via the draft.
CB Brandon Carr
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Brandon Carr is basically everything that Morris Claiborne is not. He's not as long, physical or as athletic. He doesn't have the quickness or elite length that talent evaluators covet. He's four years older (turns 31 in May) and doesn't have the upside that Claiborne has. It should be an easier decision as to who Dallas should target in free agency, right? Wrong.
Carr's biggest strength is his availability. He's started every game since joining the Cowboys in 2012 and plays nearly every single snap of every game.
Despite his age in 2016, Carr actually played fairly well, all things considered. He graded out as the 44th best corner in the NFL, according to Bleacher Report's NFL1000. Ideally, Carr projects as a team's No. 2 corner who can take out a team's second best option without help. His physicality at the line of scrimmage and body positioning allow him to succeed, despite lacking elite quickness.
The Cowboys will likely choose Carr over Claiborne for two reasons: price and availability. Because of his age, there likely won't be a big market for his services. Expect him to get a one or two year deal from Dallas, probably around $4-5 million per year. He's not a better player than Claiborne, but if you can't stay on the field, does it really matter?
OG Ronald Leary
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For the past two seasons, the Cowboys have had one of the biggest luxuries in the NFL. The team has had a proven, highly regarded offensive lineman sitting on their bench in his prime. If for any reason, a starter wasn't able to perform at an elite level, the Cowboys could insert an above-average guard into the lineup seamlessly.
That's exactly what happened in 2016. Second-year guard La'el Collins struggled in the early portions of the year, and then an injury to his toe kept him out for the rest of the season. The Cowboys inserted Ronald Leary into the lineup, and the offense instantly improved. Leary started the rest of the season at guard, and even when Collins was healthy enough to return, Leary remained the starter in the playoffs.
But in the salary cap and free-agency era of the NFL, it's awfully hard to pay top dollar for luxuries. And with there being a shortage of good offensive linemen in the NFL, it's unreasonable to expect Leary to return to the Cowboys, as he will likely receive a massive payday from another team in March.
As a player, Leary plays his best football when he is at left guard in a zone-heavy scheme. His ability to get to the second level and block linebackers is incredible for a player of his size. He's one of the better reach blockers in football, but he's a complete player as he can play with power as well. His only weakness is that he can be beaten with speed at times when he's isolated in pass protection. But Leary is absolutely a top 20 guard in the NFL, and because of his experience in different types of offenses, he will be sought after by all teams who need an infusion of offensive line talent.
The odds of Dallas retaining Leary are slim to none. He deserves to start in the NFL and will be paid like a top 15 guard in the NFL. There are just too many offensive-line needy teams in the NFL to assume that he will be back with the Cowboys in any capacity. At 27, expect Leary to be one of the most coveted free agents come March.
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SS Barry Church
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Barry Church will be one of the more interesting test cases for the Dallas Cowboys' overall philosophy towards free agency. He will be 29 this month, and it's pretty clear that his best football is behind him. His athleticism isn't what the team typically covets from the safety position, and he provides little position flex.
But Church has been a team captain each of the past three seasons and is a favorite of the coaching staff. He provides leadership on defense and consistent play each week in the secondary. He's one of the few playmakers on the team, leading the team in forced fumbles since 2014. And he's actually a really good strong safety. In 2016, Church finished as the 10th best strong safety, according to the NFL1000. He doesn't excel in any one particular area, but he's a well-rounded player who can be trusted to make the right plays in crucial situations.
The Cowboys will likely offer Church a three-year deal, averaging around $4 million per year. That would match what he made in 2016. According to Spotrac.com, that would be just slightly under his market value of $4.5 million in average annual salary. However, it wouldn't be a surprise if the Cowboys decided to get younger at this position by drafting instead of spending free-agent money. Whatever happens with Church will allow us to peak through a keyhole to see how the Cowboys plan on handling trusted veterans who hit the free-agent market.
SS J.J. Wilcox
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Once a question mark to even make the initial 53-man roster, J.J. Wilcox had the best season of his career in 2016. He made major strides in all facets of his game. By the end of the season, he was routinely one of the Cowboys best defensive backs and deserved to be on the field in critical situations.
Wilcox will be 26 later this month, so teams will be attracted to his youth and athletic ability. But what also will intrigue teams is his experience. In four seasons, he played more than 3,600 snaps on defense and special teams. He has experience playing both strong and free safety, multiple positions on special teams and as a returner.
His best fit is as an in-the-box safety who can be an enforcer on a defense. He's got the range to be a center fielder, but the closer to the line of scrimmage he is, the better he plays. His angles in pursuit have been a problem in the past, but he seems to have corrected many of those issues through better coaching in 2016. A passionate player, Wilcox may be a highly coveted player in free agency. Typically, this type of athlete with this much experience doesn't hit free agency in their prime.
With Byron Jones, Jeff Heath and Kavon Frazier on the roster, it's unlikely the Cowboys will fork over the type of money that Wilcox will likely command. They are far more likely to retain Barry Church on a cheap deal and draft an eventual replacement rather than pay Wilcox mid-level starter money. The odds are fairly low that he will return to the roster in 2017.
WR Terrance Williams
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Terrance Williams fits the expression "better the devil you know than the devil you don't." Williams isn't flashy or elite in any one particular area. Williams was graded as the 77th best receiver in the NFL, according to Bleacher Report's NFL1000 for the 2016 season.
But what Williams does provide is stability. He's played in every game since being drafted in 2013, starting in 52 out of a possible 64 games. He's the team's best blocking receiver, showing no fear of blocking on the outside or inside, where he is often motioned inline as an H-back.
For the Cowboys, they love his ability to play the Z position in their offense. Williams thrives when he is coming back towards the ball and across the field. Despite not having elite speed, he's developed into one of the more underrated catch-and-run receivers in the NFL. Drops are a concern at times, but he has a knack for making big plays in crucial moments in games. He's a very average player, but he's a nice fit in the Cowboys offense.
The Cowboys trust Williams, so it's likely they will offer him a three-year deal, ranging from about $16-18 million. They value familiarity, and they likely don't wish to invest similar resources in his eventual replacement. It won't surprise me if a team offers him more money to help provide a veteran presence to their receiving unit, but it will shock me if he leaves. A reunion makes sense for both sides.
WR Brice Butler
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Brice Butler is an enigma. His flashes are spectacular. He's got everything you would want in an outside receiver; size, speed and pure athleticism. His hands are good enough, and he's at worst an average blocker. He's shown that he can play one of the hardest positions in football, an outside receiver in Dallas, and he's someone who can get open with ease. If you were to just watch the highlights of his career, you would be shocked to hear that he's not a vital part of the Cowboys' offense.
But it's the little things that keep Butler from reaching his potential. The lack of precision in his routes, the unnecessary penalties and the concentration drops are all reasons for the Cowboys to avoid paying him in free agency. All that aside, there's also the issue of fit. Butler's best football comes when he's at the X receiver spot. Unfortunately for Butler, the Cowboys already have a pretty good X receiver in Dez Bryant.
As a Z receiver, he just doesn't have the physicality the Cowboys want in that position. He's not as good after the catch as Terrance Williams and doesn't hold up on the edges as well in the run game either. There's just no way the Cowboys can justify paying Butler starting caliber money to be their backup X receiver.
Some team will make Dallas' decision easier, as at 27, Butler will likely get offers to play a bigger role on another teams' offense. Dallas may be interested if Butler would like to come back on a team-friendly deal, but that's unrealistic considering how much natural receiving ability Butler has. Someone will gamble on his talent, hoping that things will click for him in year five.
DT Terrell McClain
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Through the first half of the year, you could argue that defensive tackle Terrell McClain was the Cowboys' defensive MVP. He was a dominant force earlier in the year as the one-technique in Rod Marinelli's defense. His best performance of the season, and maybe his career, came against the Cincinnati Bengals, where he tallied 1.5 sacks and three quarterback hits. He was constantly in the backfield, disrupting the entire Bengals' offense.
It was McClain's best year of his career, but because of a previous deal in 2016, it's unlikely that he will return in 2017. During the 2016 free-agency period, the Cowboys zeroed in on former Eagles' defensive tackle Cedric Thornton. The Cowboys signed the 27-year-old Thornton to a four-year, $17 million dollar contract to be their starting one-technique. But it didn't take long to see that McClain was the superior player.
McClain out-snapped Thornton, 465 to 275 during the regular season, and was routinely the better player every game. In the NFL1000 final grades, McClain finished as the 28th rated defensive tackle, but Thornton finished 45th.
But with Thornton's contract setting the bar for what McClain will want in March, it's hard to imagine that the Cowboys will be able to afford two players at nearly $5 million per year at the same position. To make it even more difficult, it's a position that the team generally has made an afterthought in comparison to the rest of the defense. McClain will likely have to look elsewhere to find the money that he deserves.
RB Darren McFadden
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One of the more questionable moves the Cowboys made during the season was the choice to cut promising sixth-round pick Darius Jackson for Darren McFadden, who was on NFI after he broke his arm in the offseason. As soon as McFadden was activated, he immediately took over the second running back spot, forcing Alfred Morris to become inactive on game days. It was clear that the Cowboys valued his speed and receiving ability over the plodding Morris.
So what does this mean for Darren McFadden in 2017? There are quite a few reasons to believe that he will be back with Dallas next season. One of the most important reasons is that they value his ability to keep the quarterback clean. Unlike Alfred Morris and Lance Dunbar, McFadden is one of the better backs in the league in pass protection. He's got the size and physicality to take on linebackers without hesitation. One of the ways the Cowboys like to keep Ezekiel Elliott fresh is to replace him on 3rd-and-long yardage situations. This keeps him from consistently having to take on linebackers and defensive ends in the passing game.
Another reason why the Cowboys will look to re-sign McFadden is because of his speed. When the team brings in a back to spell Elliott, they want to keep that home-run threat in the backfield. As solid as Alfred Morris was in 2016, his longest run was only 17 yards. In just three games in 2016, McFadden had two runs that went for more than 17 yards.
The speed, combined with his ability to keep Dak Prescott protected, is ultimately a reason why you should expect McFadden to return to the Cowboys in 2017. Any time he's played for Dallas the past two seasons, he's been a productive player. He will possibly get another two-year deal, likely for the same price: $5 million. When you consider the importance the Cowboys put on the running game, that would be a nice insurance policy for the team.
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