Super Bowl Prop Bets 2017: Odds, Box Score, Point Spread Betting Advice

The New England Patriots have been a motivated team all year, and it started well before the 2016 season began.

A little over a year ago, the Patriots were stopped in their tracks by the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. After having the inside track on the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs for most of the season, the Pats lost their last two regular-season games and surrendered home-field advantage to the Broncos for the conference title game.

Bill Belichick and Tom Brady could not overcome, and they were unable to play well enough in Denver to win the AFC title. Two weeks later, they saw the Broncos lift the Lombardi Trophy after beating the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50.

It's taken more than a year, but the Patriots have their opportunity to win another Super Bowl on Sunday against the Atlanta Falcons.

The Patriots have been three-point favorites for the two weeks leading up to the game, according to OddsShark, and as of Sunday morning, that has not changed. The total is listed at 58 points.

Matchup	Time (ET)	TV	Point Spread; Over/Under	Prediction
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons	6:30 p.m.	Fox	New England (-3); 58	New England; Over

While both teams have explosive offenses, the Patriots have a major defensive edge. They ranked first in scoring defense this season, while the Falcons were 25th in yards allowed and 28th against the pass.

New England's proficiency on defense has earned high praise for defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. A look at the Patriots roster does not reveal superstar defensive players, and the Pats don't let their pass-rushers loose on the blitz very often.

Trey Flowers led the team with seven sacks in the regular season, while fellow defensive end Jabaal Sheard was second with five sacks. New England's defense is more about positioning and not allowing the quarterback to get a good look at the secondary. In addition, the Patriots tackle extremely well, and that's one of the keys to preventing big plays.

That's essential if the Patriots are going to contain Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

The Falcons defense has improved a bit in recent weeks, but that may not be enough against Tom Brady and the Patriots. If Brady is given enough time, he can pick apart any defense. If the Falcons and Vic Beasley (15.5 sacks) don't put significant pressure on the future Hall of Famer, it could be disastrous. 

David Goldman/Associated Press

Atlanta's defense is hard-hitting and aggressive, but this is a unit that takes its cues from rookie linebacker Deion Jones and rookie safety Keanu Neal. Those two led the Falcons in tackles with 108 and 106, respectively, and that's a positive development.

However, Brady has such a major edge in experience that he could have his way with the young players. His ability to maneuver, pump fake and look in one direction and throw in another could result in wide-open opportunities for receivers Julian Edelman and Chris Hogan, tight end Martellus Bennett, and running backs Dion Lewis and James White.

That's one of the keys to New England's success. Brady will throw to the open receiver and is not beholden to any big name. 

That tendency is likely to be critical in this game.

Brady should have his way with the Atlanta defense. The Falcons will get their points in the first half, but the New England defense will slow down Ryan in the second half. The Patriots will take control of this game in the second half and come away with a 35-24 victory.

The key could be power running back LeGarrette Blount. He rushed for 1,161 yards and 18 touchdowns this season. If Blount gets off to a good start, it could pay huge dividends, as New England will have an opportunity to control the clock and keep the ball away from the potent Atlanta offense.

Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Prop Bets

For those who are not point-spread bettors or just want more action on Super Bowl Sunday, prop bets are the way to go.

Many fans like to bet on which team will score first and which player will put the first points on the board. While that's an interesting decision, we like the prop bet on which team will score last. Based on our prediction that the Patriots will take over the game in the second half, we like New England to get the last score.

According to OddsShark, the Patriots are minus-115 to put the last points on the board. The same odds are offered for the Falcons, but we'll take the Pats.

From the prediction above, it's clear that we like the Patriots to take command and win by 11 points. That plays into alternate lines that are offered. We can take the Patriots a minus-10.5 points and get paid at a plus-275 rate if they cover that extended spread. It's a chance to get a much better payoff than even money, and we'll take it.

Another prop bet to consider is on those who can get into the end zone and score touchdowns. While Ryan is almost certain to throw for a touchdown or more, few give him any consideration when it comes to running in for a score.

Ryan is quite athletic and adept at scrambling out of trouble. While the regular-season MVP did not run for a touchdown during the regular season, he did rush for one in the playoffs.

The feeling here is that he will do anything to help his team win, and if that means rushing for a touchdown, he will do it. The odds on Ryan scoring a touchdown are plus-550, and we'll take that opportunity.