Point-Counterpoint: Is Virginia Tech On Its Way To The BCS Title Game?

Point: Virginia Tech is a BCS-caliber team.

As ACC teams go, Virginia Tech is by far the one most familiar with the national title scene. They played Florida State for the NC (albeit as a Big East team) in 2000 and were a late loss to Miami away from returning the following year.

In the BCS era, they've traveled to the Sugar Bowl in '05 and were back-to-back ACC representatives in the Orange Bowl in '08 and '09, winning last year over the Cincinnati Bearcats.

Their just-short-of-stellar play the last few years has made them the premier program in the ACC on a consistent basis, and they've controlled the fate of the conference title for nearly every year they've been a member.

They were ranked fifth coming into this year, and, despite the loss to Alabama, posted strong wins over the upstart Hurricanes and the rebuilt Nebraska Cornhuskers to reclaim the five spot, a recognition of their resilience and talent.

In addition, their recruiting remains on par with the national elites and is arguably the best in the ACC as a whole despite Miami's recent hauls.

Counterpoint: They sure haven't played like one.

Despite its current ranking, VT would have lost to Nebraska if not for the late heroics of Tyrod Taylor, who, until that fateful final drive, had barely a hundred yards passing, rushed nine times for -22 yards, and had no touchdowns. Not exactly the statline of a Tebow or a Bradford.

In their loss, the Hokies were outgained 4:1, and would have been blown out if not for some gift fumbles deep in their own territory by Tide running backs Mark Ingram and Roy Upchurch.

They failed to cover against Duke, narrowly winning 34-26 on the road against a team that can claim one ACC win over the past five years.

The aforementioned Taylor battled with the undynamic, turnover-happy Sean Glennon his first few years with VT, and has failed both to fine tune his pocket presence and to augment the danger his legs supposedly pose.

Their running game is coming along, but again, it relies on two freshman running backs— one a true freshman—replacing the injured Darren Evans. Neither of these players has faced the requisite amount of big-game pressure or adversity.

Point: Tech's defenses under Bud Foster have been stellar, consistently ranking in the top-20 nationally.

Bud Foster's Hokie defense was 13th overall and 19th against the run in 2008, and was +1 in turnover margin, which lead the conference. The Hokie special teams unit was top-10 in kickoff returns, and has scored the most off blocked punts over a 10-year period of any team in the NCAA.

These numbers are typical of a Bud Foster unit, consistently regarded as one of the most innovative in the country, and have been replicated over several years. This is no freak occurance.

Counterpoint: Not this unit.

VT is sitting at 40th in the nation in total defense, and is currently well below half the nation in rush defense. The Hokies gave up 268 yards on the ground to Alabama and 207 to Nebraska, at 5.47 and 5.75 YPA, respectively.

Jumping out early on Miami precluded the Hurricanes' option to run, but there's little reason to believe Georgia Tech's triple-option won't gash them for almost twice these amounts if they continue to execute.

And if a team can't run, they can probably pass. Alabama threw for 230 once Greg McElroy found he had all day in the pocket. But, more alarmingly, Duke (!) hung 359 on the vaunted VT secondary, including two passes for scores.

Foster's terrific game-planning for the Miami game prevented Jacory Harris from ever finding a rhythm, but the VT home/road split personality on offense and defense might strike again, at Maryland or Virginia, or Georgia Tech, and the loss incurred is one the Hokies can't afford.

Point: Their toughest games are behind them.

College football is a linear game, and the fact that the Hokies lost early might be the best thing going for them. The 34-24 loss to Alabama will look better and better as long as the Tide keep winning.

The W over Nebraska also will look better if the Cornhuskers can beat Missouri tonight and compete for the Big-12 North title the rest of the year. That this game, at 16-15, was so close dampened a lot of critics' opinions of VT, and success for Nebraska would go a long way to bolstering VT's strength of schedule claims.

Boston College at home should fall in VT's favor; although BC did beat Florida State last week, that probably says more about the state of things in Tallahassee than Chestnut Hill. Expect a lot of turnovers to go VT's way.

Virginia and Maryland are bottom-dwellers regardless of their wins over UNC and Clemson last week, losing to 1-AA William and Mary and Middle Tennessee, respectively. They should be no trouble for the Hokies, who, if you can say nothing else, rarely fall victim to the upset.

Skip Holtz's East Carolina team, which scored the one notable exception to the above rule last year, will be a good revenge game for the Hokies, who are unlikely to let Holtz repeat the offense.

UNC may be a challenge, but the Tar Heels have lost two premier wideouts and are a year or two away from fully reloading (plus, they lost to Virginia, which is unspeakable).

If VT can survive the road game against the Yellow Jackets, an 11-1 season and a win in the ACC Championship (against, I don't know, Clemson?) are not only likely, but could result in a National Championship bid.

Additionally, the fact that VT plays so late in the year only helps their exposure to the BCS voters, who have tended to favor championship-game winners over conferences that don't feature them the last few years.

Counterpoint: Georgia Tech is a very losable game, and would cost VT their shot at the National Championship.

The Hokies won a close game, 20-17, last year in Blacksburg, in the Yellow Jackets' first year running the triple-option (and only their third game doing it). Their defense gave up a whopping 278 yards on the ground and another hundred passing (compared to Tyrod Taylor's 47), and won on a field goal in the fourth quarter. Hey, they blocked an extra point—that counts for something, right?

I'd say if anything dooms VT's national title hopes, it's this game. Georgia Tech held on at home against Clemson and should be able to do the same if the game is close. They should repeat or even surpass the rushing success they enjoyed last year with a healthy Johnathon Dwyer and the addition of Anthony Allen, who is the lightning to Dwyer's thunder.

Josh Nesbitt needs to cut down on his interceptions, but otherwise, the Hokies might find themselves outmatched and outcoached against a scrappy team looking for their first ACC division title since '06, and their first conference title since 1998.

Point: Winning is all that matters.

With the exception of the 2007 LSU example, no team has reached the BCS final with more than one loss.

Since it is conceivable that VT will a) remain ranked at or above No. 5, and b) win out, they will most certainly jump whatever SEC team loses in the coming weeks (between Florida, Alabama, and LSU, one of them and probably two will lose at least one game) Between that and their strength of their schedule, arriving at 11-1 and a trip to the ACC conference at year's end to face a team they've (probably) already beaten might be enough to punch a ticket to Pasadena.

Counterpoint: Winning pretty matters more.

If there's one thing of Beamerball that stands out, it's the ugly way a VT team wins. It's sludgy, arrhythmic, practically the antithesis of the win-fast-and-never-stop-scoring methodology preferred by current AP frontrunners Texas and Florida.

That's to be expected when your team wins on strong defense and turnovers, and almost no risk taken on the offensive side of the ball. The last team to win in such ugly fashion and be crowned National Champion was probably Michigan in 1997, or Ohio State in '03 (and even then, the Buckeyes had Maurice Clarett, good for more than a few highlight runs).

For the computers, the margin of victory is not factored in, but keep in mind they only contribute a third of the BCS standings. If VT expects to play in Pasadena, their style of winning needs to be more notable for voters not to have serious reservations about voting them the second best team in the country.

And on that point, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Conclusion: Win out, and pray for Alabama and Texas to lose.

Between Alabama, LSU, and Florida, one of those teams will be going to Pasadena. The media's love affair with the SEC is too strong to deny the winner of the SEC an autobid to the BCS title game. Accept it, masticate it, move on.

If it's Alabama, don't count on voters to schedule a rematch between the Hokies and the Tide. Rematches aren't too popular with this crowd. In the case of an SEC champion Tide, VT will represent the ACC in the Orange Bowl, but there's no way they get to the Rose Bowl if Saban and company are No. 1. We've already seen that game.

Nor do they have a prayer if Texas wins out, which, with Oklahoma ailing, looks more than likely. The Longhorns will sit atop the standings at number two and, barring some divine, resume-ranking-related miracle, will coast into the national championship game both as an apology for the snub last year, and as an appreciation for how hard it is to go wire to wire in these times.

The Hokies need to pray for the health of Sam Bradford's shoulder, or some other Big-12 miracle (Oklahoma State? Not without Dez Bryant. Maybe A&M?) in the regular season or in the Big-12 Championship game. If the Longhorns prove unstoppable, they'll face the SEC champion, and VT will be Orange Bowl bound once more.

So, that's settled. Hokie fans—you know what to root for. Now go out there and make sure Boston College doesn't win on Saturday. That would really derail things, wouldn't it?