NY Knicks' Offense Is Improved, Yet Still Looks Doomed to Mediocrity
NEW YORK — It’s been a strange season so far for the Knicks.
They’re 14-12 and owners of the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference, yet they’ve also been outscored by 3.4 points per 100 possessions. They join the Oklahoma City Thunder as the only two teams with winning records and negative point differentials.
The defense, which allowed the Golden State Warriors to assist on 41 of 45 buckets Thursday night in a 103-90 win over the Knicks, has been atrocious (107.5 points allowed per 100 possessions, the NBA’s sixth-worst mark).
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If not for the offense, which is putting up a solid 104 points per 100 possessions, good for 14th in the NBA, the first couple of months of new head coach Jeff Hornacek’s tenure in New York would have a much different feel.
But one opposing scout who watched the Knicks in person for the first time this week thinks the offense could be even more potent if freed from the shackles of the vanilla scheme the Knicks are running.
“I was a little shocked at how little creativity there was in the offense,” the scout told Bleacher Report. “It was very strange. There were a lot of isolation post-ups, some very standard pick-and-rolls. I was expecting more.”
Some of those expectations, the scout said, were based off the type of offense Hornacek ran during his two-plus seasons with the Phoenix Suns. Those Suns teams pushed the ball up the floor and kept it moving from side to side; they were relentless in attacking the rim and seeking out three-pointers.
The Knicks, on the other hand, have relied on one-on-one play from Carmelo Anthony, Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick Rose. Only two teams—the Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers—are running isolations more frequently.
The Cavaliers, at least, are able to leverage those looks into open bombs and clean runs at the rim. The Knicks—who are third in the league in percentage of shots hoisted from the mid-range area—are instead repeatedly settling for contested pull-up jumpers.
“I’m not out there coaching so I don’t actually know what the game plan is,” the scout added, “but, based on Jeff’s experience, and how Phil is always preaching about moving the ball, I guess I was just expecting more.”
Of course, it shouldn't be a surprise that Hornacek is using a different playbook for this Knicks team. Anthony has always been a player who prefers to slow things down and go one-on-one, and he’s made a pretty good career out of doing so.
Also, the Knicks offense goes into the tank when Anthony steps off the floor. They’re scoring a blistering 107.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, compared to an anemic 96.9 when he sits, even with him shooting a career-low 42.1 percent from the field.
“You know, it’s a fine balance. He’s a star player who can really create his own shot from that mid-range area,” Hornacek told reporters last week in New York. “So sometimes when we talk about moving the ball and holding it, maybe it’s a second or two too long for a normal guy. But for Carmelo, it’s fine because he can make that play.”
There’s a deeper rationale behind Hornacek’s affinity for Anthony isolations, too.
“Some teams force four-on-three opportunities with pick-and-rolls,” he said. “We just do it with Carmelo.”
Hornacek’s goal, one would imagine, is for Anthony to morph into a cross-court pass-slinging machine, similar to what LeBron James does for Cleveland—a major reason why the Cavaliers are able to thrive off iso-ball. And Anthony’s certainly improved in this area.
Every now and then he seems to recognize the opening given to him and takes advantage. But his instincts are, and always will be, to attack first. His assist rate has plummeted from the career-high mark he set last year back to its typical mark, and he’s averaging just 0.92 points per isolation possession, a number that ranks in the 58th percentile.
It’s important to remember, however, that these plays don't seem to be the result of Anthony hijacking the offense, even with him currently ranking fourth in the league in isolations.
Hornacek wants him to get the ball in the mid-post, and Anthony’s not the only one getting his number called either. Rose is among the leaders in isolations, too, and Hornacek has made it clear that he’d like the Knicks to seek out Porzingis any time he has a mismatch, which, considering he’s 7’3”, is pretty damn often.
Then again, part of being a good coach is adjusting to your personnel.
Porzingis is a beast, the type of player who doesn’t necessarily need complex schemes to get good looks. (Why worry about drawing up some screen-the-screener action when a simple pick-and-pop involving Porzingis and Rose almost always leads to a wide-open Porzingis three from the top of the key?)
If your team is fourth in offensive rebounds rate and second-chance points, then maybe constructing an offense where the bodies have time to get into position to bully opponents on the glass is actually the best move.
It’s not like the Knicks aren't sharing the ball either; only two teams are throwing more passes per game.
It’s just that these passes don’t serve the same purpose as those we see from, say, the Warriors. The Knicks are not finding open cutters flashing to the rim but rather looking to get the defense moving before putting the ball in the hands of one of the team's three primary scorers.
But it’s still worth wondering whether this is the best way for New York to attack opponents. Yeah, if Anthony rediscovers his touch and if the defense tightens things up a bit, they could probably nudge their offense into the top 10 with this style.
But is that good enough, especially with how inept the team’s defense has looked so far?
Probably not, which is why Hornacek’s got a tough road ahead of him. He’s got a boss who wants the Knicks to play one style, then a star player and former All-Star point guard who prefer to play another. And they all have egos. And it’s Hornacek's job to somehow manage all that personality and mold all those predilections into one coherent offense.
So far on the ego front, he’s done a masterful job. The scheming, though, could probably use some continuing work.
Knicks Insider Notebook
Problems at the Point
Sometimes a player’s true value isn’t revealed until his team is forced to play without him.
That’s what’s going on right now with the Knicks and Rose.
Rose has missed three of the Knicks’ last five games due to back spasms. He was also held to just 10 minutes Tuesday during their 113-111 overtime loss to the Suns. The Knicks have shifted Brandon Jennings into the starting lineup while Ron Baker, an undrafted point guard out of Wichita State, is now serving as Jennings’ backup.
Not coincidentally, the Knicks' play has started to slip.
Rose is third on the Knicks in scoring (16.4 points per game) and second in assists (4.4). But it’s his presence on the floor coupled with his specific skill set that elevates the team.
His 9.4 drives per game is the 14th-best mark in the league, and more than twice as many as Jennings—who is No. 2 on the Knicks in this category. Rose might not be a pure distributor (his habit of always leaving his feet passing is particularly vexing), but his knack for relentlessly attacking the paint puts all sort of pressure on opposing defenses.
Also, it creates more open looks for his teammates: Nobody on the Knicks sets up Porzingis for more buckets.
There’s a reason New York is scoring 108.6 points per 100 possessions when Rose plays compared to just 98.2 when he sits. Without him on the floor, the Knicks offense often falls into a catatonic state.
Rose’s injury has also sapped some of the bench's bounce: Jennings is no longer there for Hornacek to insert as a basketball version of a 5-Hour Energy shot. Also, his style of play—lots of dribbling, streaky shooting, zesty full-court D mixed with occasional lapses in the half-court game—is more conducive to a bench role. He’s overexposed as a starter, and Ron “Shaggy” Baker isn’t the answer.
Phil Jackson did a lot of great things this offseason. But leaving Baker and Sasha Vujacic as the insurance plans for a Rose or Jennings injury could be a fatal mistake.
Courtney Lee Paying Off
But if we're going to criticize Jackson, we also have to give him props where he deserves it: His decision to ink Lee to a four-year, $50 million pact this summer looks fantastic.
Lee's basic stats (10.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists) might not leap off the page. But he's given the Knicks exactly what they wanted—strong two-way play from a player who doesn't need the ball in his hands.
It all starts with his smooth shooting. He's drilling a ridiculous 46.7 percent on 3.1 three-point attempts per game. He's been even better (52.0 percent) from the corners. He's a weapon, both with and—thanks to the spacing he provides—without the ball. Lee can do some nice things off the bounce, too. Most of his works comes off curls, where he's comfortable pulling up for a jumper or deploying a nifty floater.
He's a solid on-ball defender and one of the few Knicks that Hornacek says understands how to help off the ball without ceding wide-open threes.
The Knicks are five points per 100 possessions better when Lee plays. That's exactly the kind of impact team management envisioned when it handed him that big contract in the offseason.
Speaking of Lee...
Where's the Small Ball?
The Knicks' most effective lineup this season has been the five-man grouping of Lee, Rose, Justin Holiday, Anthony and Porzingis.
They've scored 131.4 points per 100 possessions and surrendered just 82.9. It's not surprising either. Lee and Holiday are both good (and long defenders) who can space the floor. That gives Rose, Porzingis and Anthony more room to operate. And while there's no bruiser here, Porzingis is able to protect the rim while Holiday, an excellent rebounder for his position, is able to help on the glass.
For some reason, though, Hornacek has given this group only 13 minutes.
He rarely lets Porzingis play without another big man on the floor, (Joakim Noah, Kyle O'Quinn or Willy Hernangomez), and doesn't seem to like pairing Lee and Holiday, either.
That could be a sound strategy when considering how to dole out extended minutes. But Hornacek would be wise to run out this lineup a bit more frequently, if nothing else to see if it can continue to be as potent as it's been so far.
All quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats from NBA.com and accurate as of Dec. 16.
Yaron Weitzman covers the Knicks, and other things, for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @YaronWeitzman and listen to his Knicks-themed podcast here.
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