Chris Polk And More Big Uglies: National Championship Contender

As most Husky fans know, Chris Polk had ridiculous yards after contact against Notre Dame.  Specifically, on 22 carries, Polk had 136 total yards, 96 of which were yards after contact.

That makes for an average of 6.2 yards per carry, and 4.4 yards after contact per carry.  It seems reasonable to give credit to Polk for the yards after contact and to give credit to the O-line for yards before contact.  Of course, you might give credit to a poor defense for some yards, but let's just assume any error is a wash.

That means the O-line accounted for an average of 1.8 yards per carry before contact and Chris Polk accounted for 4.4 yards per carry after contact.

I was wondering how this compares to good and/or great running backs and O-lines in college football.  One data point that comes to mind is Cedric Benson and the Texas Longhorns.

As a true freshman in 2001, Cedric Benson amassed 131 yards on 31 carries against Oklahoma State.  Of those yards, 52 were yards after contact.  Here, Benson averaged 4.4 yards per carry, accounting for 1.6 yards after contact per carry.  Thus, the Texas O-line accounted for 2.8 yards per carry before contact.

The allocation of those yards between Benson and the Texas offensive line almost the complete opposite of what we saw from Chris Polk and Washington’s offensive line against Notre Dame.  Whereas Polk had 4.4 yards after contact on 136 total yards, Benson had only 1.6 yards after contact on 131 total yards.  Conversely, whereas the Washington offensive line had only 1.8 yards per carry before contact, the Texas offensive line had 2.8 yards per carry before contact.

This suggests two things:

1. Chris Polk has the potential to become one of the great Husky running backs of all time.  Although Polk is a redshirt freshman, it is not hard to look at Benson's performance as a true freshman to get some indication of the trajectory at which Polk's career might take off.  In fact, when you look at how good the 2001 Texas O-line was, you might say Polk is better than Benson was as a freshman. 

At any rate, in 2001, Benson set the all-time freshman rushing record at Texas with 1,053 yards.  Benson rushed for over 1,000 yards four straight years: in 2002, 1,293 yards; in 2003, 1,360 yards; and in 2004, 1,834 yards rushing.  Benson then went on to be the third-overall pick in the 2005 NFL draft.

Chris Polk has 452 yards through 5 games, which is an average of 90 yards rushing per game.  All that with a schedule front-loaded with tough defenses.  It is fair to expect that Washington's running game should become even more productive when they face the Arizona's, Oregon's and Wazzu's of the world as opposed to having already battled with juggernauts like LSU, USC, and Notre Dame. 

To match Benson's 1053 yards as a freshman, Polk needs 601 yards over the next seven regular season games, or an average of about 85 yards per game.  That's five yards per game less than his current average of 90. 

The last time Washington had a freshman rush for over 1,000 yards was...never.  Jake Locker holds the record with 986.  The last time Washington had a player rush for 1,000 yards for four consecutive years was...never.  Napoleon Kaufman did it for three consecutive years from 1992 to 1994.  Kaufman is Washington's only player to rush for over 4000 yards in his career.

Without a doubt, if Polk can do it, he will be among Washington's greatest rushers, most of whom came in a string spanning from 1989 through 1996.  In that eight-year period, Washington had a 1,000 yard rusher in every year except for 1991, when Beno Bryant had 981 yards rushing while splitting time with then freshman Napoleon Kaufman, and  in 1995, when Rashaan Shehee had 995 yards rushing.  The great 1,000 yard rushers in that era were:  Greg Lews, '89-'90; Kaufman, '92-'24; and Corey Dillon, '96.

If Chris Polk can maintain his average of 90 yards per game for the next seven games, he will finish the regular season with over 1,080 yards, which will plant the freshman firmly on Washington's top ten list of all-time single season rushing leaders.

2. The second thing Polk's performance suggests is just how great Washington's team could become with a better offensive line.  During the four straight years that Cedric Benson ran four over 1,000 yards, no less than five Texas offensive linemen were selected in the NFL draft.  The list includes Mike Williams, who was selected fourth overall in 2002 by the Buffalo Bills.  The others are Justin Blalock (2nd round), Derrick Dockery (3rd round), Johathan Scott (5th round), and Casey Studdard (6th round). 

Texas also put three tight ends in the NFL draft during that era:  Bo Scaife (6th round), David Thomas (3rd round), and Jermichael Finley (3rd round). 

In comparison, Washington had an absolutely enormous pipeline of offensive linemen going to the NFL during the 1989 to 1996 glory years of 1,000 yard rushers.  During that eightt-year period Washington had on its team, no less than 14 NFL offensive linemen and five NFL tight ends.  That's an average of 1.75 linemen drafted each year, and a tight end drafted every 1.5 years.

The list of Huskies includes: Bern Brostek (1st round), Dean Kirkland, Jeff Pahukoa, Ed Cunningham (3rd round), Siupeli Malamala (3rd round), Kris Rongen (3rd round), Lincoln Kennedy (9th overall in the 1st round), Pete Pierson (5th round), Frank Garcia (4th round), Andrew Peterson (5th round), Bob Sapp (3rd round), Olin Kreutz (3rd round), Benji Olson (5th round), and Tony Coats (7th round).  Also to the NFL were Husky tight ends including: Aaron Pierce (3rd round), Mark Bruener (1st round), Ernie Conwell (2nd round), Cameron Cleeland (2nd round), and Jeremy Brigham (5th round).

Conversely, during the 2000's decade, only four offensive linemen and one tight end have been drafted to the NFL from Washington:  Elliot Silvers (5th round), Chad Ward (6th round), Khalif Barnes (2nd round), Joe Toledo (4th round), and Jerramy Stevens (1st round).  Texas, on the other hand, has had seven offensive linemen and two tight ends drafted in the 2000's decade.

Washington would almost instantly begin to contend for National Championships if it could put an offensive line in front of Chris Polk like the line Cedric Benson had in front of him at Texas, or even better, like the line Washington had in the early 90's.

This leads me to conclude that Washington's decline over the past decade had been largely attributed to the decline in quality of the offensive line.  No question, the offensive line's performance was decisive in the outcome of the game last Saturday at Notre Dame. 

If Washington expects to return to the glory days, it will have to be on the backs of the Big Uglies.