Heisman Watch 2016: Predictions for College Football's Most Prestigious Award

On Monday, the Heisman Trophy Trust officially announced its finalists for the 2016 Heisman Trophy award, given annually to the most outstanding player in college football.

Five finalists were invited to the ceremony in New York City on Saturday, December 10:

The ceremony will be broadcast on ESPN beginning at 8 p.m. ET.

As has become the trend in recent years, there's not much drama in the Heisman race. Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson is the heavy favorite, as demonstrated by the most recent odds from OddsShark.com.

Here's a look at the latest odds, followed by a breakdown of Jackson, his closest competition and how the race could play out:

Candidate	Team	Odds
Lamar Jackson	Louisville	-4000
Deshaun Watson	Clemson	+1000
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	+3300
Jabrill Peppers	Michigan	+5000
Dede Westbrook	Oklahoma	N/A

Front-Runner: Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Billie Weiss/Getty Images

It's extremely rare for the Heisman front-runner in September to go coast to coast and win the award. Usually the early-season favorite pads his stats against lesser competition and then plummets back down to earth once the conference schedule and the weight of expectations catches up with him. 

Jackson solidified himself as the favorite with a signature victory over the Florida State Seminoles in September, but—unlike many early favorites before him—Jackson continued to build momentum deep into the season. 

It wasn't until the final two weeks of the regular season when Jackson finally ran out of gas, as Louisville dropped its final two games—including its finale to rival Kentucky in which Jackson tossed three interceptions. 

It's almost unheard of for the voters to anoint a Heisman winner after losing his final two games—it hasn't happened since Notre Dame's Tim Brown in 1987—but Jackson will likely benefit from a weak class around him. 

Sports Illustrated's Chris Johnson is among many writers who have speculated that Jackson would have lost the Heisman race in those final two games in another year. But his competition in this class simply doesn't stack up.  

Sleeper: Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

It's difficult to envision a scenario in which Jackson loses the Heisman, but if the vote ends up closer than expected, Clemson's Deshaun Watson will likely be his nearest competition. 

Heisman voters use a wide range of logic to cast their ballots, and some will undoubtedly look at the head-to-head battle between these two contenders as a tiebreaker. While Jackson played brilliantly against Clemson, Watson walked out with the victory. That could be enough to sway some voters his direction, despite the fact that the rest of their resumes fail to compare. 

Watson also had the benefit of having been a household name entering the season. In years when no obvious candidates emerge, voters often treat the Heisman as a lifetime achievement award. 

The career achievement effect most recently impacted the Heisman race in 2009, when Texas quarterback Colt McCoy was named a finalist despite numbers that fell far short of expectations. 

Like Watson, McCoy entered the season as a Heisman front-runner but failed to build upon his previous campaign. In most years, his numbers would not have been worthy of Heisman consideration, but in a weak field, he built some momentum and earned an invitation to New York. 

But ultimately, the voters favoring career achievement weren't enough for McCoy, who finished third, and Watson will likely face a similar fate on Saturday. 

Prediction: Jackson Wins in Landslide

There doesn't appear to be much drama surrounding who will win the award, but there is some intrigue in Jackson's margin of victory. 

In recent years, Heisman voters have tended to fall in line with the consensus at a record rate. 

It's tough to say exactly why this has occurred. If there's something to this trend, Jackson would appear to be in line to join the likes of Troy Smith, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota as one of the biggest winners in the history of the Heisman Trophy.