Heisman Watch 2016: Odds and Predictions for All Candidates in Award Race
It may be a foregone conclusion that Louisville Cardinals quarterback Lamar Jackson is going to take home the Heisman Trophy, but he will have talented company in New York for Saturday's ceremony.
Jackson will be joined by Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma wide receiver Dede Westbrook, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson and Michigan playmaker Jabrill Peppers as finalists for the award.
Jackson may be college football's best player and the Heisman favorite, but he is the only finalist not playing in a high-profile New Year's Six bowl this season. The sport's marquee individual award will have to serve as a consolation prize.
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With that in mind, here is a look at the Heisman odds, a predicted order of finish and a breakdown. The odds are courtesy of OddsShark as of Thursday at 5 p.m. ET.
Odds
| Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville | 1-40 |
| Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson | 10-1 |
| Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma | 33-1 |
| Jabrill Peppers, LB/DB, Michigan | 50-1 |
| Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma | NA |
Predicted Order of Finish
| 1 | Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville |
| 2 | Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma |
| 3 | Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson |
| 4 | Jabrill Peppers, LB/DB, Michigan |
| 5 | Dede Westbrook, WR, Oklahoma |
Breakdown
While it is difficult to compare players across different positions, three of the finalists are quarterbacks this year. That makes direct statistical comparison fairly straightforward, and all three players turned in impressive campaigns:
| Lamar Jackson, Louisville | 57.6 | 3,390 | 30 | 9 | 1,538 | 21 |
| Deshaun Watson, Clemson | 67.6 | 3,914 | 37 | 15 | 529 | 6 |
| Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma | 71.2 | 3,669 | 38 | 8 | 143 | 6 |
Jackson is the favorite, but voters could hold Louisville's losses to Houston and Kentucky in the final two games against him. He threw three interceptions in the 41-38 loss to the Wildcats and didn't look like the player who dominated college football throughout the season.
Still, he built such an early Heisman Trophy lead that his poor performance in the final game and failure to reach a New Year's Six bowl won't prevent him from capturing the award.
Justin Hartling of OddsShark noted that Jackson's 51 touchdowns were more than 37 FBS schools scored as a team. Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com said the 51 scores represented an ACC single-season record. Jackson also became the first player in FBS history to finish with at least 3,300 passing and 1,500 rushing yards.
Adelson pointed to Jackson's September in the Heisman race: "Jackson has long been considered the favorite to win the award after opening September on a torrid touchdown pace, racking up 26 total TDs in the month and at least 400 yards of offense in each game."
"It really hasn't hit me yet. I'm still trying to let it sink in," Jackson said of his Heisman consideration, via Adelson.
The real race is for second place.
Despite Watson having the second-best odds, the thought here is Mayfield surpasses him in the voting. Clemson reached the national title game last season and was largely expected to be among the championship contenders again in 2016. It fulfilled those expectations by winning the ACC and reaching the College Football Playoff but also played a number of closer-than-expected games.
The Tigers beat Troy by six points, Virginia Tech by seven and North Carolina State by seven in overtime after the Wolfpack missed a short field goal to win.
Fair or not, some voters will hold it against Watson that he didn't bury those weaker opponents earlier in the game. What's more, his 15 interceptions are difficult to ignore when comparing him to the other two quarterbacks.
Mayfield led the nation in completion percentage and passer efficiency (197.8 compared to Watson's 154), per ESPN.com, and is riding a hot hand with a nine-game winning streak to finish undefeated in Big 12 play. The Sooners scored at least 34 points in all of those contests and reached the 45-point plateau six times in that span.
Unfortunately for Westbrook, the presence of Mayfield will hurt his chances to win the Heisman.
The pass-catcher's numbers are impressive with 1,465 receiving yards and 16 touchdown catches, but those voters looking to reward a Sooners player for their Big 12 title and turnaround after a 1-2 start will give the nod to the quarterback throwing Westbrook the ball.
As for the one defensive finalist, Peppers is listed as a linebacker and defensive back on Michigan's official roster but played a number of positions. He returned kicks and punts for the Wolverines, lined up at quarterback and took direct snaps, served as a rushing threat, and even caught two passes.
While Peppers deserves recognition as one of the most versatile playmakers in the country, he doesn't have the stats to justify being a Heisman finalist, let alone an actual winner.
According to Sports-Reference.com, he finished with 66 total tackles, one interception and one pass defended this season. Offensively, his 167 rushing yards and three receiving yards don't exactly jump off the page, even if he is a unique weapon.
Nicole Auerbach of USA Today said: "Peppers is a fantastic, versatile player. He was not the nation's best defensive player."
He may not even be the best defensive back on Michigan's roster, as cornerback Jourdan Lewis often shadowed the opponent's best receiver and was named a first-team All-American last year.
Peppers still became a Heisman finalist alongside four other players who stood out for their individual brilliance, but only one dominated discussion throughout the season. Jackson scored eight touchdowns in Louisville's opener, five touchdowns in a 63-20 blowout win over Florida State two games later and never looked back.
As a result, he will lift the Heisman Trophy on Saturday.
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