Oregon's Downward Spiral Leaves Mark Helfrich's Future Tenuous at Best
Do you put him out of his misery or try to nurse him back to health?
It's a college football conundrum that's being experienced all over the nation this fall but perhaps nowhere more so than at the University of Oregon. There have been a lot of sleepless nights surrounding the Ducks this season, and with good reason.
Mark Helfrich's team is 3-7 overall, 1-6 in Pac-12 play, and has not been competitive.
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In three of its last five games, Oregon has fallen behind 21-0 during the first half. It hasn't won away from home this season and gave up 70 points to visiting Washington.
The string of Top 25 finishes will end at nine. The Ducks will not play in a bowl game for the first time since 2004, their last losing season. Even the streak of 82 games with at least one touchdown pass has been snapped.
It has fans booing, leaving games early and wondering if it's time for a new head coach. They aren't the only ones, as Helfrich is continually being asked about his job security.
"I have total confidence in what we're doing," Helfrich said during his press conference following last week's 52-27 loss to Stanford.
"Obviously, again, the results have not been what anybody wants. I'm responsible for that, period. We did not play well enough in any phase yesterday, and that's my responsibility. ... We will continue to fight, we will continue to do the right things, and it will turn."
Part of the problem of having an ongoing dynasty in a sport, like the one Alabama is currently enjoying, is that every other program wants the same. Oregon got a taste of that with Chip Kelly, who over four years led the Ducks to the BCS Championship Game, two Rose Bowls and the Fiesta Bowl.
Overall, his teams went 46-7 and, perhaps most importantly, proved the program had the potential to be a perennial national power.
So the expectation level rose. That's not necessarily fair to Helfrich, but he knew it came with the job.
He hasn't been able to maintain the same level of success. Still, before this season, he was pretty close with an appearance in the College Football Playoff and two Alamo Bowls. Plus, Marcus Mariota won the program's first Heisman Trophy.
Yet the warning signs were there.
In recruiting, there's been a noticeable dip. The hoped-for bump that can often come from playing for the national championship didn't develop.
| Year | Ranking |
| 2017* | 24 |
| 2016 | 22 |
| 2015 | T21 |
| 2014 | 22 |
| 2013 | 17 |
| 2012 | 15 |
| 2011 | 13 |
| 2010 | 13 |
Oregon went from having five players selected in the 2015 NFL draft, including Mariota, to just two in 2016. Obviously, next year is looking bleak.
The Ducks have had a defensive lineman selected in the first round three of the past four years, with Dion Jordan, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner. Taylor Hart was a fifth-round pick in 2014. There doesn't appear to be anyone like that on this year's roster.
New defensive coordinator Brady Hoke, in his first job since being let go as Michigan's head coach, had hoped to revamp the pass rush by switching to a 4-3 scheme. Instead, the Ducks rank No. 126 out of 128 teams in total defense and 127th in scoring defense.
On top of that, quarterback Dakota Prukop, a transfer from Montana State, was benched, and starting running back Royce Freeman hasn't had the season expected while dealing with injuries.
The rest of the roster has also been a mess. Out of the 22 base starting positions on offense and defense, Oregon has started 10 freshmen and seven sophomores. Four redshirt freshmen are starting on the offensive line. The leading tackler, linebacker Troy Dye, is a freshman, as is the player listed third, safety Brenden Schooler.
No program in college football would have a winning record in that situation.
Compounding the issue has been what fans see happening elsewhere. Washington has resurfaced as a conference power. USC appears to be back on the rise. Colorado, Utah and Washington State are all making noise as ranked teams.
Moreover, some of the innovative things Oregon did offensively a few years ago aren't unique to the Ducks anymore. Instead, they're again becoming primarily known for being the team that always wears different uniforms.
"For those who are calling, 'We lost our creativity. We lost our edge on offense,' I would disagree," Pac-12 Network analyst Yogi Roth said. "They're as creative as they've been, but other teams are much more improved.
"With any team that doesn't dominate on the defensive front, like Alabama, even Ohio State at times, you need a quarterback to not only be efficient, but a playmaker. Yes, you need to be a point guard, but you need to be more Allen Iverson, John Stockton, Steve Nash than be a normal point guard running the offense. You need to be dynamic in my opinion in this system, and they've struggled there."
It took a transfer from Eastern Washington, Vernon Adams, for Oregon to go 9-4 last year, but when he got knocked out of the game against Texas Christian, the offense struggled. That Helfrich's teams were 24-4 with Mariota and have been 12-11 without him shows how crucial the quarterback position is in Oregon's system.
When Justin Herbert took the first snaps against Washington last month, he became the first true freshman quarterback to start a game for Oregon since Chris Miller in 1983. With Herbert, the Ducks have been able to move the ball, just not at the same pace as previous teams.
The struggles and disappointment were undeniable. The unrest palpable.
Then came the tweet that sent the program on its ear, with ESPN's Darren Rovell claiming super-booster Phil Knight was ready to try to lure a top-echelon coach with the biggest contract in his profession.
Considering that the Nike chairman is believed to have donated more than $300 million to the school over the years, according to USA Today, and is responsible for Oregon's jaw-dropping facilities, the idea didn't seem far-fetched.
However, former athletic director Pat Kilkenny called the report "irresponsible journalism" on The Bald-Faced Truth podcast Monday in Portland.
Kilkenny, an insurance tycoon and major booster, said, "Oregon should have a holiday on his [Knight's] birthday." He also made a good point that firing Helfrich would go against the program's ideals that took years to establish.
Helfrich is the third straight head coach who was promoted from being an assistant—following Kelly in 2009 and Mike Bellotti in 1995. Running backs coach Gary Campbell is in his 34th year on the Oregon staff, followed by offensive line coach and running game coordinator Steve Greatwood in his 30th season and linebackers coach Don Pellum in his 24th.
Oregon hasn't fired a head coach since 1976.
Helfrich has three years remaining on a $17.5 million contract signed in February 2015. The buyout would be $11.6 million if fired after this season.
Although it's always easy for critics to spend someone else's money, suddenly the tweet about Knight doesn't appear to be as plausible.
Oregon's licensing/rights fees, tickets sales and average football revenues aren't on the same level as other parts of the country, where stadiums can seat more than 100,000 fans for home games and broadcast rights bring in a lot more money.
That's the dilemma athletic director Rob Mullens is facing: Come up with a ton of money to bring in a big name who will clean house and start anew, or stick things out a little longer and see if Helfrich can turn things around as this young team develops.
It can be done. Look at Auburn (which lost the 2014 BCS Championship Game) and Southern California this season, Penn State over a longer period of time and Colorado. The Buffaloes have pulled off nothing short of a resurrection.
"I hope they don't make a dramatic alteration to the coaching staff," Roth said. "I think you're looking at a coach who's two years removed from the national championship. Last year you could make the argument that he was a healthy quarterback away from being undefeated, or have just one loss.
"I think Mark Helfrich has earned the right to rebuild."
It comes down to two questions that Mullens has to ask himself (or Knight): Is the program not going in the right direction? Has the time come in which he can't afford not to make a move?
The moment the answer to both is yes is when Oregon will be hiring a new head coach.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter: @WritingWalsh.
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