Bowl Projections 2016: CFP Predictions, Postseason Outlook Heading into Week 12
The College Football Playoff is still a relatively new concept, but this season might change the way we look at the committee and how each year is approached.
In the first two years of this system, the national semifinals exclusively consisted of conference champions and never more than one team from each league. That could change this year due to some strange situations across the country.
The reality is the committee is looking for the four best teams, even if those squads don't end up winning their respective conference titles. Not everyone will be happy, but this is the only way to judge the best in college football.
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A lot can happen in the coming weeks, but here are predictions for how the playoff will look at the end of the season.
1. Alabama
Fans in the SEC don't like Alabama, and fans in the rest of the country are tired of the entire SEC. However, none of that stops the fact the Crimson Tide are easily the best team in college football at the moment.
It only takes a look at the Week 1 win over USC to see how good this squad is compared to the rest of the country. Alabama destroyed the Trojans 52-6 on a neutral field, yet USC is now back in the Top 15 and recently beat fellow national title contender Washington.
The Tide also have road wins over LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas and Ole Miss, plus a dominant home victory over Texas A&M.
Although the upcoming matchup against Auburn is never easy, and the team still has to play in the SEC Championship Game, it's hard to imagine the squad faltering at this point. With the No. 2 scoring defense in the country at 12.2 points allowed per game and some electric skill players on offense, it will take a lot to create an upset.
Additionally, even a single loss shouldn't be enough to derail Alabama from its path to a national championship. Based on what we have seen this season, the Tide could lose to Auburn and still remain No. 1 in the polls. At the very least, they will be in the Top Four at the end of the year unless there is a catastrophe in the coming weeks.
2. Ohio State
This is where things get a little dicey, as Ohio State is in trouble in its own division.
If the Buckeyes beat Michigan State and Michigan in the next two weeks, they will finish the regular season 11-1 with as good of wins as anyone in the country. In addition to a victory over the rival Wolverines, they will have beaten Wisconsin, Nebraska and Oklahoma, the last two pretty soundly.
The problem is if Penn State also wins out—not a tough scenario considering the final two opponents have a combined 1-13 record in the conference—it will be the Big Ten East champion. The Nittany Lions will play for the Big Ten title and not Ohio State.
While Penn State has had a fine season, it's nearly impossible to argue this squad being more deserving of a playoff bid than Ohio State. The Nittany Lions beat the Buckeyes at Beaver Stadium thanks mostly to a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown, but they also have a loss to Pittsburgh and a 49-10 defeat at the hands of Michigan. They also haven't beaten a single other team listed in the latest rankings.
Dan Wolken of USA Today summed up the issue:
Ohio State is the better team that has had a better season with better wins and losses. If the Buckeyes win out, they will be in the playoff regardless of what happens with Penn State.
3. Clemson
Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney has a big argument with teams like Ohio State and possibly others getting into the playoff without winning their conference, per Dan Hope of the Independent Mail:
It's easy to say that when his team remains in position to win its division and likely its conference.
Even after losing at home to Pittsburgh, the Tigers only have to beat Wake Forest to earn a trip to the ACC title game, where they will face either North Carolina or Virginia Tech. Anything can happen in a sport as crazy as this one, but Clemson should be able to bounce back with wins.
Unlike some of the other teams on this list, the Tigers haven't exactly been dominant this season. Even with a loaded defense and arguably one of the most talented quarterbacks in the nation in Deshaun Watson, there have been a lot of close calls. Five of the team's nine wins have been decided by a single possession.
With that said, wins are still wins. Beating Auburn, Louisville, Florida State and even Troy count as solid performances that few can replicate. Three more wins, and no one will be able to argue against Clemson's inclusion.
4. Louisville
This is where it gets confusing. Like Ohio State, Louisville can end up being on the outside looking in for its conference title game as Clemson takes home the ACC Atlantic title. Still, the overall resume is what matters.
The one loss is probably the most excusable among the contenders. Winning at Clemson under the lights is never easy, and the Cardinals came within a few yards of pulling off the upset.
Otherwise, Louisville has been blowing out opponents, leading the country with 49.6 points per game behind Heisman Trophy favorite Lamar Jackson at quarterback. The win over Florida State and potential road victory over Houston don't look quite as good as earlier in the year, but this is still an elite team.
Chris Fallica of College GameDay noted how the Cardinals compare to other contenders:
Point spreads obviously don't guarantee wins, but this shows just how highly respected Louisville is compared to fellow top teams in college football. Other one-loss or even two-loss teams simply won't be as deserving as this one.
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