College Football Week 12 Predictions: Picking Top 25 Games Against the Spread
Team Chaos won Week 11 of the college football season, but Bleacher Report's picks against the spread weren't far behind.
After finishing 7-15 in the preceding slate, we flipped that mark with a 15-7 showing and lifted the season record to 93-98-3. But we're not going to rest on our laurels.
Once again, every ranked team is in action. The picks are broken down into a midweek section and then by Saturday kickoff times, and rankings reflect the AP Top 25.
Please remember that the picks are for entertainment purposes only.
Note: Consensus spreads are not available for teams facing Football Championship Subdivision opponents.
Midweek Games
1 of 5
No. 3 Louisville (-16) vs. Houston
When: Thursday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
As of publish time, no spreads were listed for the non-conference showdown. This section will be updated after the line is released. For now, we'll give you the straight-up pick of Louisville. Lamar Jackson will take advantage of Houston's aggressive defense and protect the football when scrambling, something he failed to do against Wake Forest before the Cardinals pulled away.
Update: Tom Herman's team regularly impresses when the national lights shine brightest. The Cougars won't knock off Louisville this time around, but it'll be a fourth-quarter fight.
The Pick: Houston (+16)
Arkansas State vs. No. 25 Troy (-8.5)
When: Thursday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
For the first time in program history, Troy is ranked in the Top 25. The Trojans' first test is an Arkansas State team that started 0-4 overall yet is undefeated in Sun Belt play. The Red Wolves have won five straight both overall and against the spread. Troy should snap the streak, but its 2-3 ATS record at home will drop.
The Pick: Arkansas State (+8.5)
UNLV vs. No. 22 Boise State (-27)
When: Friday, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Boise State finally put together an all-around blowout, but the defense is still a potential issue. UNLV just showed it's capable of winning a shootout, scoring 69 points in at triple-overtime loss against Wyoming. Although the Broncos are obvious favorites, another high-scoring game will keep the Rebels within four touchdowns.
The Pick: UNLV (+27)
Saturday Early Afternoon Games
2 of 5
No. 2 Ohio State (-21.5) vs. Michigan State
When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
Despite the overall struggles of the team, it sure feels like Michigan State is going to ruin somebody's season in these last two weeks. However, Ohio State has returned from a brief midseason vacation and is walloping defenses again. The Buckeyes will rattle off another impressive win while exacting some revenge for 2015's stunning loss.
The Pick: Ohio State (-21.5)
No. 6 Wisconsin (-27.5) vs. Purdue
When: Saturday, noon ET (ABC)
Wisconsin kept Illinois' offense in check during a 48-3 blowout, but Purdue's unit is remotely threatening because of David Blough. The key in this conference matchup for the Boilermakers, though, will be the ground game. If Markell Jones can break one big run, they'll have just enough offense to beat the spread.
The Pick: Purdue (+27.5)
No. 13 Oklahoma State vs. TCU (-4)
When: Saturday, noon ET (Fox Sports 1)
Over the last two weeks, Oklahoma State has played a couple of dangerously close games against unranked teams. Now, the Pokes are underdogs at TCU. So, the question is which Horned Frogs team shows up. The post-Oklahoma October version, or the Baylor edition? That 62-22 beatdown felt like an outlier more than a team that had turned the corner. We'll take Oklahoma State in a close finish.
The Pick: Oklahoma State (+4)
Maryland vs. No. 19 Nebraska (-14.5)
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPNEWS)
As long as Tommy Armstrong Jr. is behind center, Nebraska can shred a hapless Maryland defense. Nebraska must contain the Terrapins' rushing attack, though doing so would become significantly easier if Perry Hills unfortunately misses the contest. Maryland's quarterback has exited the game early in two straight weeks. The Cornhuskers will wrap up their home slate with a blowout victory.
The Pick: Nebraska (-14.5)
UTSA vs. No. 23 Texas A&M (-26.5)
When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPNU)
Trevor Knight's injury complicates Texas A&M's outlook. How many points can a Jake Hubenak-led offense score? The Aggies—who have lost six straight games against the spread—should topple UTSA where it matters most, but the Roadrunners averaged 40 points during the last four contests.
The Pick: UTSA (+26.5)
No. 21 Florida vs. No. 16 LSU (-14)
When: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Florida desperately needs to avoid dropping its final conference game, but a banged-up roster will travel to face one of the hottest teams in the country. Unlike South Carolina, LSU will make the Gators pay for turnovers. And considering the way the Tigers defense has played since the coaching change—allowing a mere 11.6 points per game—Florida is in big trouble Saturday afternoon.
The Pick: LSU (-14)
Oregon vs. No. 11 Utah (-12)
When: Saturday, 2 p.m. ET
Oregon's run defense is horrendous, and Utah's run offense has been outstanding after Joe Williams returned to the team. That's a problem for the Ducks, whose lone victory since mid-September came against an Arizona State squad that just surrendered 22 tackles for loss to the Utes. Chalk up another Utah win.
The Pick: Utah (-12)
Saturday Late-Afternoon Games
3 of 5
Indiana vs. No. 4 Michigan (-28)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
For what seems like the 87th time under Kevin Wilson, Indiana came painfully close to knocking off a ranked opponent before falling short in the closing moments. Last year, one near-victim was Michigan, which needed two overtimes to survive the Hoosiers.
Update: According to MGoBlog, Wilton Speight (broken collarbone) is out for the season. We'll update the pick if confirmed.
Update 2: Speight remains questionable. We're picking a Wolverines win but Indiana to beat the spread.
The Pick: Indiana (+24)
No. 20 Washington State vs. No. 12 Colorado (-3.5)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Week 12's most intriguing matchup is Washington State and Colorado. The Buffs must contain a balanced offense, which is a strange thing to say about a Mike Leach team. But the Cougars have played two unimpressive road games since throttling Stanford. While Wazzu has a margin for error, Colorado cannot afford a loss. That desperation will be the difference in a one-touchdown victory.
The Pick: Colorado (-3.5)
Buffalo vs. No. 14 Western Michigan (-34.5)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPNU)
The surprising host of ESPN's College GameDay, Western Michigan is a massive favorite with a chance to become 11-0. Oddly enough, the Broncos have put together their blowout wins away from Kalamazoo. Against MAC programs, they're averaging a 14.5-point margin of victory at home compared to 32 on the road. The outcome will never be in doubt, but Buffalo will stay within four scores.
The Pick: Buffalo (+34.5)
No. 17 Florida State (-20.5) vs. Syracuse
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN2)
Florida State's defense was awful early in 2016, but the unit has steadily improved. The weekly question is the offense's level of effectiveness. Well, Syracuse has allowed 1,410 yards and 116 in two games against ranked opponents. The Seminoles will cruise to a blowout victory on the road.
The Pick: Florida State (-20.5)
No. 24 San Diego State (-7.5) vs. Wyoming
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)
Wyoming is a fun team, but its lack of defense will be problematic when facing an opponent with a great one. San Diego State's unit ranks seventh nationally in road games and fifth overall. Donnel Pumphrey will move 200-plus yards closer to breaking the all-time rushing record while the Aztecs contain the Pokes.
The Pick: San Diego State (-7.5)
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Saturday Night Games
4 of 5
No. 5 Clemson (-21.5) vs. Wake Forest
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Despite losing to Pitt, Clemson's season is far from lost. The Tigers will still reach the conference championship game as long as a second letdown is avoided. Wake Forest put a scare into Louisville, but the Demon Deacons failed to be opportunistic, turning three takeaways into just nine points. Clemson won't provide those chances in a much-needed dominant road victory.
The Pick: Clemson (-21.5)
Arizona State vs. No. 7 Washington (-25.5)
When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Does your team need a bounce-back win? We suggest you try playing Arizona State. Oregon lost to Cal, then beat the Sun Devils by 19. Utah fell to Washington then rolled ASU 49-26. Now, Washington will attempt to overcome a disappointing loss against USC. We're fully expecting a blowout in Seattle.
The Pick: Washington (-25.5)
No. 8 Oklahoma (-3) vs. No. 10 West Virginia
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC)
In games with at least 200 rushing yards, Oklahoma is 6-0. When the offense failed to reach the mark, the Sooners are 2-2. Samaje Perine will shoulder a heavy burden Saturday night in Morgantown, but he'll help Oklahoma avoid wasting scoring chances like Texas did last week against West Virginia and earn a one-touchdown win.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-3)
No. 9 Penn State (-27.5) vs. Rutgers
When: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network)
Rutgers put together encouraging games against Minnesota and Indiana before Michigan State walked all over the Scarlet Knights. Penn State has recorded six straight victories, but Rutgers actually plays better at home. Chris Ash's team hung around with Iowa and Indiana, and it won't be completely obliterated this time.
The Pick: Rutgers (+27.5)
Reminder: No consensus spreads available for Alabama (Chattanooga) or Auburn (Alabama A&M) due to matchups with FCS teams.
Saturday Late-Night Games
5 of 5
No. 15 USC (-10.5) vs. UCLA
When: Saturday, 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
The lone ranked matchup of the late-night slate, USC and UCLA will square off for the 84th time. Two factors working in UCLA's favor are the post-major victory hangover and the rivalry, but the Bruins are averaging 3.25 turnovers per game without Josh Rosen. USC will secure one final conference win and put the pressure on Colorado.
The Pick: USC (-10.5)
Top 25 rankings reflect the Associated Press poll. All odds courtesy of Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. Stats from CFBstats.com or B/R research.
All recruiting information via Scout. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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