Predicting the Biggest Busts of the 2016-17 NBA Fantasy Basketball Season
Cross your fingers and hope you don't have one of the players on this list. If you do, pray you took them later than they've typically come off the board.
The key to succeeding in fantasy basketball isn't just unearthing one or two hidden gems during the last rounds of your draft. It's not just about making smart free-agent pickups and getting the better of another owner during trading season.
If you don't land studs with your first few picks, you're digging yourself a deep hole right at the very start.
Based on their average draft position (ADP) in Yahoo leagues, these are some of the top early-round selections primed to disappoint by failing to live up to the lofty projections. They're by no means bad NBA players, but the early returns are all indicative of larger issues that will keep them from rewarding their owners' investments.
Current fantasy ranks are determined by placement within Yahoo’s standard leagues, but the complete lists can only be accessed within your own personal league.
Honorable Mentions
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It's so early in the season that it would be irresponsible to hit the panic button too hard with these particular names. Still, the "bust" list will only expand as the season progresses.
Though we're not leaning much on these small samples, the following players also received consideration as potential upcoming fantasy busts. Be warned.
Darren Collison, PG, Sacramento Kings
ADP: 70.2 (No. 67 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 488
If you drafted Darren Collison, it was because you were willing to withstand his early-season (suspension) absences and capitalize once he returned to the lineup. You surely didn't count on Ty Lawson playing well enough in his stead to carve out a bigger role—a timeshare, if you will, for those of you still in fantasy football mode.
Lawson's shot has been missing, but his playmaking has looked superb. And that spells trouble for Collison's quest to become the undisputed starter as soon as he's available.
Al Horford, PF/C, Boston Celtics
ADP: 20.4 (No. 18 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 90
Al Horford was the linchpin for the Atlanta Hawks on both ends, but there's no guarantee he fills the same role on the Boston Celtics, even if they've been expecting that.
Isaiah Thomas is far more ball-dominant than anyone Horford played with in his old locale, and head coach Brad Stevens' defensive schemes don't ask him to wreak as much havoc in the passing lanes, which could depress his steal totals. Throw in a deep Beantown frontcourt that could eat into his minutes, and the concerns continue for this second-round pick even if he's actually more effective per minute in Boston.
Brook Lopez, C, Brooklyn Nets
ADP: 33.9 (No. 34 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 120
Brook Lopez's fantasy value is worrisome enough if he's unable to record blocks and rebounds at reasonable rates. Through his first four appearances, he's averaged just 0.5 and 5.8, respectively. But if he's traded to a location that won't feature him on offense to the same extent, the troubles will only expand.
We're already seeing rumors, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein.
Dirk Nowitzki, PF/C, Dallas Mavericks
ADP: 58.3 (No. 56 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 185
Trade him while he's hot.
Dirk Nowitzki is averaging 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks, and both of those numbers are terrifyingly unsustainable but also producing the vast majority of his fantasy value. He hasn't come close to matching them in recent seasons, and that doesn't bode well for his stock when they regress and he doesn't take on a bigger offensive role for this revamped outfit. Considering he's already just barely justifying his ADP, you should sell high, and quickly.
D'Angelo Russell, PG, Los Angeles Lakers
ADP: 73.6 (No. 72 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 121
The Los Angeles Lakers are giving D'Angelo Russell every opportunity to thrive, but the fantasy breakout won't come until his shooting percentages skyrocket. He's knocked down only 36.7 percent of his field-goal attempts and 32.3 percent of his triples, which severely depresses his value even while he serves as a lead option.
Those numbers should trend upward, but too much was expected of him as a sophomore.
Stephen Curry, PG, Golden State Warriors
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Age: 28
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 25.2 points, 2.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks
ADP: 1.8 (No. 1 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 21
Look, Stephen Curry is going to be just fine.
Despite his early-season adjustments and the occasional poor performances, he's been one of the 25 most valuable commodities.
But you didn't draft Curry to be "just fine." We have no choice but to hold him to a higher standard because you can't ever afford to miss on your first-round pick, particularly when it comes so close to the top.
If he's on your roster, it's because you had the No. 1 overall selection in a snake draft or paid an exorbitant sum in your league's action. Maybe you got lucky and snatched him off the board after other owners grabbed Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and James Harden. Either way, you need him to be an unabashed fantasy stud.
Where is the improvement going to come from?
Curry will have games in which he can't miss, and he'll likely provide a few performances reminiscent of his MVP exploits. But it's already clear he's ceding plenty of touches to Durant in key contests, which lowers his ceiling in the scoring categories. And that's saying nothing of the rebounds and assists he loses. Durant is a far better rebounder and playmaker than Harrison Barnes, so this regression should have been easy to predict.
Curry should improve as his shooting regresses to his ridiculous mean, but it's not even certain he finishes the year as a top-10 commodity. For the overwhelming No. 1 pick by ADP—Durant was second at 3.0—that's too big a decline to avoid the dreaded "bust" label.
Pau Gasol, PF/C, San Antonio Spurs
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Age: 36
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 9.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.2 blocks
ADP: 51.0 (No. 48 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 58
The early results are not good for Pau Gasol. Frankly, that's a massive understatement.
With the San Antonio Spurs' newfound penchant for smaller lineups and the hesitation head coach Gregg Popovich is already displaying in LaMarcus Aldridge and the Spanish 7-footer's defensive woes, Gasol has already seen his minutes reduced sharply.
During his five appearances, he's averaged just 23.6 minutes—the first time in his 16-year career that he's been below 31. Coming into the year, Gasol knew sacrifices might be necessary, per MySanAntonio.com's Nick Moyle:
"You just got to understand what your role is and how and you contribute to the best of your qualities but also to the benefit of the team. The team always has to come first. You have to understand what's missing, what's the void you need to fulfill. That's what I've always tried to do.
It's not about me, it's not about my game or my points or my stats, it's about winning and what the team needs me to do.
"
So far, his biggest sacrifice has been playing time.
And while Gasol hasn't complained, he might have to if he wants that to change. The team has been thriving in his absence, producing a 23.9 net rating that stands in stark contrast to the minus-2.6 net rating while he's playing. Small-sample-size warnings pop up here, but the eye test verifies the numbers.
If you drafted Gasol, it's because of his tendency to throw up nearly constant double-doubles. But glamorous box-score contributions require court appearances, not to mention substantial improvements to his nosediving per-36-minute figures.
Serge Ibaka, PF/C, Orlando Magic
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Age: 27
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 15.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 0.2 assists, 1.0 blocks
ADP: 29.9 (No. 28 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 60
The Orlando Magic frontcourt has already been rife with fantasy disappointments, largely because there are too many players capable of contributing and not enough minutes to go around. Take a gander at how each prominent figure has fared:
| Serge Ibaka | 29.9 (No. 28 overall) | No. 60 | 32 spots |
| Nikola Vucevic | 52.7 (No. 50 overall) | No. 85 | 35 spots |
| Aaron Gordon | 65.3 (No. 60 overall) | No. 46 | N/A |
| Bismack Biyombo | 111.8 (No. 115 overall) | No. 233 | 118 spots |
Bismack Biyombo has underperformed to the largest extent, but it's Serge Ibaka emerging as the biggest bust. Missing substantially on a third-round pick (or even a second-rounder in deeper leagues) is far worse than failing to hit on a late-draft selection meant to provide bench depth.
But minutes actually aren't the issue for Ibaka so much as role.
The Congolese power forward was often asked to serve as the primary rim protector with the Oklahoma City Thunder. With Orlando, he's been pushed out to the perimeter more frequently, which drastically depresses his blocking and rebounding totals.
Ibaka was never an early-round fantasy contributor because of his scoring. It was the rejections that made him so appealing, since it's tough to thrive in that category without sacrificing others. But when the blocks aren't coming, his stock will only continue to sink.
Nikola Jokic, PF/C, Denver Nuggets
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Age: 21
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 12.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.3 blocks
ADP: 33.5 (No. 31 overall)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 128
In real life, Nikola Jokic is a tremendous young big for the Denver Nuggets. Coming off a historically excellent rookie campaign, he's actually gotten even better on both ends of the floor. Just look at his prorated total points added, per NBA Math:
| 2015-16 | 89.8 | 76.0 | 165.8 |
| 2016-17 | 131.5 | 103.6 | 235.1 |
But that doesn't make him worth his soaring ADP.
By drafting Jokic behind only 30 players, fantasy owners were banking on a box-score breakout. The 21-year-old's excellence, however, stems from his efficiency and defensive ability, and he needed far more playing time to justify the expected fantasy surge.
That doesn't seem likely now.
Jokic's per-game line looks rather similar to last year's, and the strides he's made in field-goal percentage are mitigated by perimeter struggles and early-season woes at the charity stripe. But the most damning evidence is simple: His minutes per game have only risen from 21.7 to 23.0, as the Nuggets have to let Jusuf Nurkic spend even more time on the court now that he's healthy, confident and thriving.
As long as his Bosnian counterpart is contributing, the Nuggets don't have to push Jokic into a bigger role, which keeps him well shy of his fantasy ceiling. And when he was drafted for that ceiling...well, you can see how that's troubling.
Ricky Rubio, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Age: 26
2016-17 Per-Game Stats: 4.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.5 steals
ADP: 50.2 (No. 47)
Current Fantasy Rank: No. 308
This isn't about Ricky Rubio's injury, even if he's out indefinitely with a sprained right elbow, per an official release from the Minnesota Timberwolves. If the point guard were healthy, we'd still be concerned about his ability to live up to the top-50 billing.
Rubio will always contribute with assists and steals, but they're usually his sole sources of fantasy value. He's not a scorer in an era that sees so many 1-guards throw up big point totals, he's never produced more than 0.8 triples per game, he doesn't work his way to the free-throw line often enough to bolster your team's percentage and his rebounding can easily be replicated elsewhere in a lineup.
If the 26-year-old doesn't provide dimes and thefts at elite levels, he's a bust. That's inarguable.
And even if we ignore his early-season numbers, there's reason to believe he'll fail to match his prior production.
First, the development of Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine will take the ball out of his hands more frequently, which makes it much tougher for him to provide double-digit assists per game.
Towns, in particular, is quite adept at serving as an offensive hub on the blocks and elbows. The 'Wolves haven't hesitated to let him initiate offense.
Rubio isn't guaranteed to play as much as in previous campaigns either. Rookie Kris Dunn has handled himself nicely during the opening salvo, and Tyus Jones could always force his way onto the court. Whether Rubio cedes minutes to his younger backups or is traded to a different organization, major minutes aren't assured.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com or NBA Math and are current as of 4pm ET on Nov. 4.
