Predicting First Wave of Players to Hit the 2016-17 NBA Trade Block
Sooner or later, NBA teams are going to start thinking about swaps. Whether it's worn-out welcomes, offseason miscalculations or panic moves, we know some big names will wind up in trade discussions.
Because it happens every season.
And if it feels like the first week of the year is way too soon to start talking about cutting losses or changing directions, keep in mind that virtually every player here has already been subject to trade whispers. Some have been in trade discussions as recently as this past summer, and others for much longer than that.
Being on the trade block, as we'll use the term, means a player's name will come up in conversations that aren't solely trickle-down sourced in a game of rumor telephone by competing aggregation "news" sites. We're looking for guys who'll warrant credible, reliably reported chatter.
It's far from bag-packing time, and no team has come out and said these guys are available yet. But when the suitcases come out, we're guessing a few of these players will be involved.
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
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DeMarcus Cousins is the best player on this list, and he's the one whose entire recent history is one giant "on again, off again" trade rumor.
Things are quiet for now, though Sacramento Kings owner Vivek Ranadive was noncommittal in an interview earlier this month with USA Today's Sam Amick.
The Kings seem wholly devoted to making the playoffs—which will be far easier with Cousins than without him. But even if we ignore their long history of discussing Cousins in trades, recent moves suggest a contingency plan is in the works, per Kevin O'Connor of The Ringer:
"Maybe this year will be different, since Cousins is set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2018. Sacramento's latest draft picks suggest the Kings are planning for life without Cousins: over the past two drafts they've selected three bigs — Willie Cauley-Stein, Georgios Papagiannis, and Skal Labissiere — which is an odd thing to do for a team that needs everything except another big.
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Sacramento will lose its first-round draft pick if it selects outside the top 10 in 2017, so there's incentive to move Cousins, tear things down and start fresh with younger assets. The team has resisted that path for a long time, and a desire to make the most of Dave Joerger's first year (and the franchise's sparkling new arena) could mean tanking is out of the question.
But there's defensible logic to moving Cousins, whom you'd forgive for testing free agency in 2018 after playing for six coaches through seven years with the Kings.
LaMarcus Aldridge, San Antonio Spurs
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ESPN's Zach Lowe merely wrote that the San Antonio Spurs are too smart not to consider moving LaMarcus Aldridge at some point, but Jackie MacMullan made things more interesting by saying "Sources were telling me the other day that LaMarcus Aldridge may not even finish the year with the Spurs. That experiment hasn't quite worked out the way they hoped" on CSNNE.com.
The Spurs got off to a fantastic start by pummeling the Golden State Warriors on opening night, and Aldridge looked particularly comfortable and effective in that win. However, you can't just ignore two such highly respected figures raising the same issue.
Then again, the Spurs have denied discussing any Aldridge trades, per Jeff McDonald of the San Antonio Express News.
Doing anything to break up a potential 60-win team seems inadvisable.
That makes Aldridge a long-shot prediction, at least for now. But there's just too much buzz to entirely rule out the possibility of a move.
Goran Dragic, Miami Heat
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There's a lot of time and a lot of money left on the five-year, $90 million contract Goran Dragic signed in 2015, and the Miami Heat might consider clearing that commitment from their books as part of a larger teardown effort.
ESPN's Marc Stein says it's not happening yet, but that executives around the league are ready for that to change any second.
The 2017 draft is loaded, Miami is not currently outfitted to compete and the roster seems best built around the younger core of Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow. With a long history of success in free agency, it's easy to see the appeal of a Heat team packing it in this year, landing a big fish over the summer and adding a potential superstar with a high lottery pick.
An abrupt, aggressive rebuild is not new to the Heat, and neither is tanking.
"In '08, I was smart enough to say, 'It really is time to get a lottery pick,'" Heat President Pat Riley said in June, via Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
Look at 2015 as well, when Miami let off the gas after losing Chris Bosh in February. That 37-45 year yielded Winslow. During the season finale on April 15, the Heat played only six guys. Michael Beasley joined Henry Walker, Tyler Johnson and James Ennis in logging a full 48 minutes. (The Sixers, with even greater incentive to tank, still managed to lose that one, though.)
Dragic is a fine player, but Miami hasn't been big on "fine" under Riley. It likes to take big swings with rings in mind. Moving a 30-year-old point guard to clear space is the on-brand move.
Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings
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Rudy Gay has already told the Kings he plans to opt out of his contract after the season and that he probably won't return, per Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical.
It's always a little confusing when players do this. Broadcasting an intent to leave would, theoretically, make potential trade partners want to wait for free agency, when they could just sign someone like Gay without surrendering an asset in a trade.
Nonetheless, you'd have to expect the Kings to pursue a deal, especially after Gay called Sacramento "basketball hell," according to an excerpt from George Karl's upcoming book Furious George, via Stein.
Getting fair value will be difficult. But moving a player who clearly wants out might be worth taking pennies on the dollar to a franchise committed to changing its culture and having success in the short term.
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
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All things being equal, it would probably be better if the Philadelphia 76ers could unclutter their frontcourt by moving Jahlil Okafor. His offensive skill set and lack of defensive versatility (he can't guard power forwards) make him a bad fit alongside Joel Embiid.
But Nerlens Noel was the one saying this to reporters in September:
"I don't see a way of it working. It's just a logjam. You've got three talented centers that can play 30-plus minutes a night and three centers can't play 30 minutes a night. That's that. Things need to be situated. Obviously, somebody's got to be moved around. It's a tough situation, but I can only say so much because I have no say and no power.
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So the squeaky wheel will probably get the grease, and David Aldridge of NBA.com has a suggestion for exactly how the Sixers might lubricate this situation:
"Noel has made it clear he doesn't like the current arrangement in Philly, and Philly's GM has made it clear he knows they probably have to move one of the Sixers' bigs. As I wrote in the Morning Tip, a relatively easy trade can be made with New Orleans to send Noel there, and Philly could get back a young guard like Langston Galloway, for example, who could help them right now.
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Galloway feels like a low-value return for Noel, but the big man's injury history and conspicuous discontent make such a swap somewhat realistic. If you're a Pelicans fan, you should be praying this happens. Remember, New Orleans actually drafted Noel and shipped him to Philly for Jrue Holiday in 2013.
Risks and all, an Anthony Davis-Noel frontcourt would immediately become one of the most athletic and defensively rangy in the league.
Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks
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Trading Greg Monroe could be difficult, as his player option allows him to hit free agency during the summer of 2017. Much like Gay, Monroe might be a player teams just wait to sign, rather than give anything up to get him.
Still, rumors have persisted for almost the entire time Monroe's been with the Milwaukee Bucks. Back in September, he told Charles F. Gardner of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "I didn't start 'em [trade rumors], so if you want to know the beginning, I don't know where to tell you to go."
As a big man who scores inside but doesn't stretch the floor or defend the rim all that well, the market for Monroe may be frosty. But with Miles Plumlee starting ahead of him and John Henson providing shot-blocking in reserve, the Bucks should consider ramping up trade efforts. After all, they could lose Monroe for nothing in 2017.
Some return is better than no return.
As far as potential fits, buyers would likely be short-term shoppers in need of immediate interior scoring (probably off the bench). The Charlotte Hornets lost Al Jefferson, so maybe Monroe could replace him as a second-unit focal point.
Tyus Jones, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Tyus Jones isn't in the same needle-moving class as the others on this list. But mentioning him here is worthwhile because it puts the focus on the Minnesota Timberwolves' point guard position.
Hopefully it signals Minnesota isn't serious about moving Ricky Rubio.
Just days before the 2016-17 season tipped off, Wojnarowski reported the Wolves were discussing a Jones trade with several teams, including the 76ers.
Yes, do that. Do anything but trade away Rubio, whose on-court presence has long been the only thing keeping the Timberwolves offense afloat. Last season, for example, Minnesota scored 106.8 points per 100 possessions with him and 100.7 without him.
Rubio has had trouble staying healthy, his shot remains a liability and rookie Kris Dunn looks like the heir apparent at the position. But for a young team in need of steady stewardship and perfect setups, Rubio is only more valuable.
If Jones moves, it'll indicate Minnesota is comfortable hanging onto Rubio for a while longer. Anyone who wants to see the Timberwolves reach their potential should be rooting for that.
