Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Odds, Football Pick

Michigan holds a firm upper hand in the rivalry with Illinois, winning 69 of 94 meetings all time and going 9-2 straight up, although just 6-5 against the spread over the last 11 matchups. The Wolverines look to continue that dominance when they host the Illini on Saturday afternoon at the Big House.

Point spread: The Wolverines opened as 28-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 35.0-8.2 Wolverines

Why the Illinois Fighting Illini can cover the spread

Illinois just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 24-7 victory at Rutgers last week. The Illini broke a scoreless tie on a short Chayce Crouch-to-Kendrick Foster scoring toss midway through the second quarter. They then bumped that lead to 17-0 in the third quarter and later iced down their first Big Ten win of the season when cornerback Darius Mosely returned an interception 78 yards for a score midway through the fourth.

On the day, Illinois ran the ball 43 times for 228 yards, while the defense forced five Scarlet Knights turnovers.

Two weeks ago, the Illini outgained and outrushed Purdue but lost by a field goal in overtime. And just before that, they led Nebraska in Lincoln into the fourth quarter before fading. So perhaps the Illini are working themselves through the learning curve under new head coach Lovie Smith.

Why the Michigan Wolverines can cover the spread

Three weeks ago, Michigan passed its first real test of this season, beating Wisconsin 14-7 in a game the Wolverines actually dominated. Two weeks ago, they put a serious hurting on Rutgers, winning 78-0 and easily covering as 30-point favorites. Michigan then had last week off.

The Wolverines led the Knights 14-0 seven minutes into the game, then scored touchdowns on four consecutive possessions to put the game away early. They had the spread covered midway through the second quarter, and the defense did the rest, holding Rutgers to just 39 total yards of offense for the day and just two pass completions.

Just prior to that, Michigan outgained the Badgers 349-159. So stretching back to last season, the Wolverines have outgained each of their last seven opponents by an average of over 250 yards per game.

Smart pick

There's not much doubt as to the winner of this game. The only thing that really matters is the final margin. Some teams and coaches take their feet off the gas after building big cushions, but at the moment Michigan isn't one of those. Already this season, the Wolverines have beaten up on lesser foes by scores of 63-3, 51-14, 49-10 and, as mentioned above, 78-0. Why wouldn't something similar happen this Saturday?

Betting trends

Illinois is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games against Michigan.

The total has gone over in 13 of Michigan's last 14 games.

Illinois is 1-5 ATS in its last six games against teams with winning records.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.