Texas A&M vs. Alabama: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
From the time it was first revealed, through the early parts of this season, the University of Alabama’s 2016 football schedule appeared to be very lopsided in one aspect.
Alabama’s road games were thought to be the meat of the schedule—at Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU, with a neutral-site opener against Southern California. Few thought it could survive that gauntlet, as there was a good chance all five games could be against a ranked opponent.
Four down, one to go, and even though LSU has fired Les Miles, the Tigers are back in the Associated Press Top 25.
But the way things have played out, the home schedule now has more juice to it as well. In addition to hosting No. 6 Texas A&M this weekend, Alabama will close the regular season at home against Auburn, which, at 4-2, is ranked 21st.
Consequently, Alabama could end up playing seven ranked opponents during the regular season, with the potential to face three more in the postseason should it keep winning, in the SEC Championship Game and the College Football Playoff.
When Alabama won the national championship last year, it had to face nine ranked opponents, which set a record for the most of any title team during the poll era—and remarkably only two of those games were at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
To repeat, it might have to top that while again having home-field advantage just twice in those games.
But first, Texas A&M, in what could determine the SEC West champion.
Date: Saturday, October 22
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT
Place: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, Alabama)
TV: CBS
Radio: Crimson Tide Sports Network, Texas A&M Radio Sports Network, Sirius 83, XM 190
Spread: Alabama is a 16.5-point favorite, according to Odds Shark.
Texas A&M Keys to Victory
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1. History repeats
Texas A&M knocked Alabama out of its No. 1 ranking in 2012, with quarterback Johnny Manziel leading a 29-24 victory at Bryant-Denny Stadium en route to winning the Heisman Trophy. He was 24-of-31 for 253 yards two touchdown passes and no interceptions.
A lot will be made this week of Trevor Knight being one of just two active quarterbacks with a win against Alabama (the other being Chad Kelly), but the situation is very different he’s now on a different team. Knight was with Oklahoma in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, and Alabama was coming off the "Kick Six" game at Auburn that derailed the two-time reigning national champions.
Knight was 32-of-44 for 348 yards with one interception and four touchdown passes. The completions, attempts, yards and touchdown passes are all still career highs.
That’s the kind of performance Texas A&M will need to knock off No. 1 Alabama again.
2. Establish the run
Texas A&M is seventh in the nation in rushing offense, averaging 274.3 yards per game, and 6.8 per carry. The Aggies have topped 200 rushing yards in all six games this season.
Meanwhile, Alabama’s defense has allowed 63.9 rushing yards, which leads the nation by more than 20 yards per game (84.2 by Army). Only one opponent has topped 100 yards, Ole Miss, which had 101 yards on 33 attempts.
That makes this a something-has-to-give game.
In addition to Knight, who ranks 10th in Southeastern Conference rushing with 502 yards, freshman running back Trayveon Williams is third with 704.
“This guy is the real deal,” Alabama head coach Nick Saban said.
3. Don’t give up a defensive touchdown
This could be a potential problem for the Aggies, who have given up 11 turnovers (six fumbles and five interceptions), which is tied for 75th out of 128 teams.
Alabama’s created 14 turnovers and scored on eight of them—twice as many as any other team in college football. Factor in three punt returns for touchdowns and the 11 non-offensive touchdowns are the most of any Alabama team under Saban, even though we’re only through seven games of the regular season.
The Crimson Tide’s stake of consecutive games with a non-offensive touchdown has reached nine.
Although Texas A&M had different quarterbacks, Alabama scored three touchdowns on interception returns during last year’s game at Kyle Field, two by Minkah Fitzpatrick and one by Eddie Jackson, en route to a 41-23 victory.
Alabama Keys to Victory
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1. Ground control
During the last two games, Alabama’s running game amassed 702 rushing yards, including 438 at Tennessee. Both opponents were ranked, too.
“I didn’t know that we rushed for 438 until we got on the bus, and Jonathan Allen told me,” junior center Bradley Bozeman said. “I thought, ‘Holy Crap! That’s a lot of yards.’ But you have to keep pressing. You can’t let it go to your head.”
With sophomore running back Bo Scarbrough making his first start against Tennessee, Alabama has five players with 35 or more carries. Overall, its averaging 6.2 yards per rushing attempt.
Dating back to 2008, Alabama is 86-4 when rushing for at least 140 yards. Texas A&M is currently giving up 159.3 per game, which is tied for 68th nationally.
2. Get A&M’s defense off balance
Having Jalen Hurts at quarterback has added a new dimension to the offense, and he’s accumulated 428 rushing yards to go with 1,385 in air and 17 total touchdowns. The true freshman is averaging 259 yards of total offense per game despite sharing snaps with other quarterbacks the first few games.
He’s the only quarterback to throw and rush for 100 yards in a game under Saban in his 21 years as a college head coach, and Hurts did it twice, against ranked Ole Miss and Tennessee.
Don’t be surprised if there’s a new wrinkle against Texas A&M. Aggies defensive coordinator John Chavis likes to put his cornerbacks on coverage islands, one-on-one with the outside wide receivers, so look for offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin to take some shots downfield.
3. Stay focused
Saban called last week’s 49-10 victory at No. 9 Tennessee the team’s most complete game yet this season, and now the hype is really beginning to build with the Crimson Tide.
Alabama has been No. 1 since the preseason polls were released and is beginning to really play like it. Nationally, the Crimson Tide rank sixth in scoring offense and eighth in scoring defense and have won the last four games by a combined score of 180-46.
When ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit was answering fans’ questions via Twitter (@KirkHerbstreit) early Sunday morning, he had a one-word answer to someone asking if the Crimson Tide had a weakness: "No."
Saban doesn’t want his players thinking that they’ve arrived yet.
“The question is do you rest on your laurels or do you stay hungry to try to improve, build on the things that you did correctly and fix the ones that you didn't,” the head coach said.
Texas A&M Players to Watch
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1. Quarterback Trevor Knight
Knight went back to Norman last Saturday and was wearing an Oklahoma shirt on the sideline while watching his twin brother, Connor, a tight end, play for the Sooners. Maybe he was also looking for some of the magic he had against Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
So far Knight appears to be a perfect fit with the Aggies after transferring, and he should probably be getting some Heisman Trophy love following Texas A&M’s 6-0 start.
Overall, he’s completed 115 of 215 passes for 1,500 yards, with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. The yards rank fifth in the SEC, but the 121.26 passer rating is only 10th.
Moreover, the Aggies’ third-down conversion rate of .387 is 75th in the nation.
2. Defensive end Myles Garrett
Alabama’s primary pass-rushers—Allen and linebackers Mark Anderson and Tim Williams—can make a big statement to NFL scouts if they can equal or top Garrett’s performance on Saturday.
Even though he missed a game with a leg injury, and played through it during his last game, Garrett has six tackles for a loss, four sacks and has been credited with six quarterback hurries. Meanwhile, linemate Daeshon Hall has nine tackles for a loss and 3.5 sacks.
“They’re guys that are very good rushers,” Saban said. “They both have speed, good first-step quickness. But they also have really good size and to be a really good rusher you to be able to turn speed to power, which both of those guys can do.”
Texas A&M ranks 13th nationally in sacks with a 3.33 average.
Alabama is averaging 3.86, which is third, but its 27 total tops the nation.
3. Safety Justin Evans
The former junior-college transfer has had a big first six games and leads the Aggies in tackles (48) and interceptions (three). He’s second in passes broken up and is known for both his toughness and being a fierce hitter.
Last week, NFL.com named him the defensive player of the midseason.
He seems to like playing Alabama too. During last year’s game, Evans was credited with 10 tackles.
Texas A&M free safety Armani Watts is off to a great start as well. He had the last of Texas A&M’s seven turnovers while defeating Tennessee two weeks ago, 45-38 in double overtime.
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Alabama Players to Watch
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1. Linebacker Tim Williams
In part due to the teams Alabama has been playing, Williams has been able to focus more on his pass rushing, and the results have been noticeable. He’s up to 7.5 tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks.
"Just the last couple of games, as you can see, he’s explosive off the line of scrimmage, and he gets in the backfield faster than almost anyone I know," senior defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson said. "He’s just been practicing on a whole different level, just coming out every day with the right mindset. Just grinding every day."
The more Texas A&M tries to use four- and five-receiver sets, the more Williams will be on the field as a pass-rusher instead of an every-down linebacker. Ironically, that’ll keep him fresher as the game progresses.
2. Quarterback Jalen Hurts
It’ll be interesting to see how Texas A&M will try and contain Hurts and keep him from taking off out of the pocket, but just having him in the backfield helps because of the option plays and his threat to run.
Just the hesitation by a defensive player can make a big difference.
"That split second where you have to kind of try to decide where the ball is and try to find the ball, in our offense we try to expose that, and we try to take advantage of that," sophomore running back Damien Harris said. "Any half-second, split second that we can get is an advantage to us; we try to use that."
3. Tackles Cam Robinson and Jonah Williams
Alabama’s offensive tackles are the cornerstones of the line, and even though Williams is a true freshman, he’s graded out the best among the linemen so far. This week he was named the SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week after scoring a 90 percent grade without allowing a quarterback hurry or sack to Tennessee.
"In the game I thought Cam played well, I thought Jonah played really well," Saban said.
Texas A&M will move its linemen around, and stunt in an effort to find a matchup to its advantage, but the keys will be the tackles—especially the way Alabama has been attacking the edges.
The Aggies defense has tallied at least 10 tackles for a loss in four of its six games this season. Last year it notched just one sack against Alabama, but had 15 tackles for a loss.
What They’re Saying
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Saban on the matchup: "They are very well-coached. Kevin Sumlin's done a really good job there—offense, defense and special teams. They're highly ranked in a lot of categories, whether it's turnover ratio, scoring defense, their ability to run the ball. [A] very high-powered, balanced offense."
Saban on playing an uptempo style, which he calls fastball football: "Yeah, I like playing fastball when we have the ball. Like you like playing the fast-break when you've got the basketball. You don't like it when they've got you 3-2 and you're the guy backing up trying to defend it."
Kevin Sumlin on if Alabama has more trouble with running quarterbacks: "I don’t know. They don’t seem to struggle with a lot of anything to me. They’ve had a really good defense; they are a really good defense. What’s scary about them now, they’re stopping you and scoring points. We learned that the hard way last year. Running quarterback, dropback quarterback, whatever you want to do there, I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that they’re one of the best defenses in the country."
Prediction
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The two teams are similar in a lot of ways, but whatever advantage Texas A&M used to have by playing an uptempo, multiple-look offense is now gone because Alabama sees it every day in practice.
Although Knight had a big game against Alabama before, the Crimson Tide will look to shut down the run and make him try and throw to his talented receivers, including Speedy Noil, Ricky Seals-Jones, Josh Reynolds and Christian Kirk.
Granted, Knight won round one a couple of years ago, but things will probably be a little different this time at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Look for the game to be decided by players like Da'Ron Payne, Allen and Reuben Foster, as Alabama just has too much talent and depth to stop.
Prediction: Alabama 38, Texas A&M 23
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.
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