UFC 204: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Predictions
UFC 204 goes down Saturday from Manchester, England.
In the co-main event, you have Michael Bisping defending his middleweight title for the first time, and he's doing it against Dan Henderson, the man who famously flatlined him at UFC 100 back in 2009.
Fighting in front of his hometown crowd, Bisping is surely seeking revenge for the knockout. But that's only one of five fights on the pay-per-view main card.
Full disclosure: This main card is not what you'd call sparkling. All the more reason you need us to illuminate the darkness. We're here as we always are to give you the picks. Nathan McCarter. Steven Rondina. Craig "Cookie" Amos. Sydnie Jones. And myself, Scott Harris. Let's get it on.
Russell Doane vs. Mirsad Bektic
1 of 5
Craig Amos
It's pretty difficult to have any faith in Russell Doane here. He's in free-fall mode, having lost three straight, and is going up against a promising young opponent in Mirsad Bektic. Making Doane's chances feel even more bleak is the fact Bektic has an edge in every meaningful category tracked by FightMetric. Those numbers paint the picture of a mismatch, and I believe that's exactly how it will play out.
Bektic, TKO, Rd. 1
Steven Rondina
It sounds mean to say, but this is a tune-up for Bektic. He'll win this—and probably without much difficulty.
Bektic, TKO, Rd. 2
Nathan McCarter
It will be nice to have Bektic back in the UFC and back in form. Expect a decisive finish to kick off the PPV. Doane coming in on short notice also doesn't inspire confidence in an upset bid. Bektic rolls.
Bektic, TKO, Rd. 2
Sydnie Jones
Doane has little to gain from this fight besides proving he can still win and deserves to stay in the UFC. That's a lot, come to think of it. However, Doane has gone 2-3 in the promotion, while Bektic has an impressive 10-0 record. The UFC likes its contenders. This does seem tailored to continue Bektic's ascent.
Bektic, submission, Rd. 2
Scott Harris
Sometimes there is consensus because a certain viewpoint is right. After a blown ACL, Bektic is back and ready to resume his career as probably the brightest prospect in the featherweight division. Doane is just another victim.
Bektic, submission, Rd. 1
Daniel Omielanczuk vs. Stefan Struve
2 of 5
Amos
I haven't seen many fighters match Daniel Omielanczuk's streak of consecutive majority decisions, but I'm going out on a limb and predicting he doesn't run it to three. In fact, I'm predicting he doesn't win at all. Stefan Struve's defensive game leaves much to be desired, but he's long had a tricky arsenal of submissions and has improved a great deal as a striker. He make it two wins in a row by handing Omielanczuk the first stoppage loss of his career.
Struve, submission, Rd. 2
Rondina
This is a tough one to call. Struve is clearly the better pound-for-pound fighter, given his serviceable stand-up game and strong grappling, but we also saw him lose to Jared Rosholt not long ago via nothing but marginally above-average wrestling. I'll give the nod to Struve on his ability to work off his back, but this is far from a slam dunk.
Struve, unanimous decision
McCarter
I have to take chalk here. Omielanczuk has a route to win this fight, but Struve is a step too far for him. Omielanczuk squeaked by Jarjis Danho and Alexey Oliynyk. Struve will be able to score enough on the feet and take advantage of a tired Omielanczuk in the final round with a superior grappling game.
Struve, submission, Rd. 3
Jones
What a mystery Struve is. His career baffles me. Based on his extensive experience in MMA and the UFC in particular, he should at least outgrind Omielanczuk for three rounds. Or do something for three rounds to earn him the W.
Struve, unanimous decision
Harris
I don't know that Struve is that big of a mystery. He's a guy with great physical tools who likes to brawl and often underwhelms in big spots. This is one of those spots. As others alluded to, Omielanczuk can win this bout. I say he will by drawing Struve into a donnybrook.
Omielanczuk, TKO, Rd. 2
Jimi Manuwa vs. Ovince Saint Preux
3 of 5
Amos
This fight has some serious potential to entertain. It's also a tough call in my book. I'm siding with Ovince Saint Preux on the strength of his greater versatility, experience against high-level competition and natural athleticism.
Saint Preux, TKO, Rd. 3
Rondina
Jimi Manuwa has the pure power to end this one in a hurry, but this is OSP's fight. He's bigger, stronger, is better late and has the skills to finish things on the ground or on his feet.
Saint Preux, submission, Rd. 3
McCarter
It'll be nice to get Manuwa back inside the Octagon, but this is a tall order. Saint Preux has improved greatly since his time in Strikeforce. That showed in a losing effort to Jon Jones. Saint Preux's length will render Manuwa's striking useless.
Saint Preux won't stop Manuwa, but he'll put in a workmanlike showing to get the W.
Saint Preux, unanimous decision
Jones
Like my comrades, I'm leaning OSP's way because of his greater experience in the UFC and his performances against high-caliber opponents.
Saint Preux, KO, Rd. 3
Harris
Manuwa has to be itching to return after more than a year away. He'll be aggressive with Saint Preux, picking him apart with scoring strikes from range and eventually landing a kill shot. Dare I say, a posterizing finishing for the Poster Boy.
Manuwa, KO, Rd. 2
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Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi
4 of 5
Amos
Though Vitor Belfort is still a dangerous striker, he isn't what he was in his prime. You know what I mean. Gegard Mousasi will manage the early pressure, then take over when Belfort's output begins to wane. Whether he chooses to remain standing or take Belfort down, Mousasi will put his opponent away early with strikes.
Mousasi, TKO, Rd. 2
Rondina
Belfort's loss to Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza was pretty damning about where he is at this stage of his career in the post-TRT era. While Mousasi doesn't have the tools to overwhelm Belfort on the ground as Souza did, he should be able to win and win big.
Mousasi, submission, Rd. 2
McCarter
Mousasi is the better fighter and the right pick. I'm still going to pull the trigger on Belfort. Call it a gut feeling or a mistake, but Belfort can do the things that have given Mousasi problems in the past. Speed, pressure and a hail of punches give The Phenom new life.
Belfort, TKO, Rd. 1
Jones
Poor Mousasi found himself on the receiving end of one of Uriah Hall's freak KOs in September 2015, but I don't fault him for that. At 31, Mousasi seems like the smarter choice—except he's racked up 47 fights so far! That's wild! Belfort, at age 39, is at 37 fights. So older and with fewer miles, but as Amos mentioned, we're far beyond the "prime" time of Belfort's career. I have more confidence in Mousasi at this point.
Mousasi, TKO, Rd 1
Harris
Mousasi has to get over the hump. Belfort is that hump. They've talked about this fight for a long time, and now it will happen, with the more well-rounded Mousasi taking this to the ground and stepping past the velvet rope into middleweight contention.
Mousasi, submission, Rd. 2
Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson
5 of 5
Amos
It's hard to shake the memory of Henderson's iconic knockout win over Bisping, but it was a long time ago. The miles on Henderson have piled up since then, while Bisping has only grown. Bisping will, of course, have to be wary of Henderson's massive right hand, but so long as the champion does not commit a massive blunder, his speed and pace will overwhelm Henderson en route to the victory.
Bisping, KO, Rd. 2
Rondina
Bisping is prone to making mistakes in the Octagon...but he rarely makes the same mistake twice. Bisping doesn't have the power to put things away early, but he should be able to outpoint Henderson en route to his first title defense.
Bisping, unanimous decision
McCarter
The H-Bomb is a distinct possibility, but Bisping is too good in his movements to get caught. Especially when he knows what cost him at UFC 100. Henderson's chin isn't what it used to be, either. That gives Bisping the opportunity to finish with his volume striking.
Bisping, TKO, Rd. 2
Jones
Finally, seven years later, Bisping vs. Hendo II is happening! We all knew this day would come, right? As much as I would love for Henderson to win and be able to retire as champion, it seems unlikely. But so did Bisping knocking out Luke Rockhold and taking the middleweight belt, and here we are.
Still, though, Bisping has developed a smart enough game that he'd probably have to make a considerable blunder for Henderson to catch him. This is his first title defense, and he's going to do everything possible to retain it, including not underestimating Henderson. Henderson's weakening chin will get the better of him before he can get the better of Bisping.
Bisping, KO, Rd. 2
Harris
Bisping isn't going to circle into Hendo's right hand like he did last time. And that, pretty much, is the difference. Bisping will stick and move his way to a decision, out-maneuvering the old and plodding Henderson, who won't have the ability to keep up with Bisping or execute any kind of plan B.
Bisping, unanimous decision
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