Don't Be Fooled by September Hype—the Heisman Race Is Still Wide-Open

I keep looking at my calendar and shaking my head.

September 27 it says, and I almost want to believe it. Last weekend's games in the South were played in the kind of heat that made it feel like the dead of summer. Meanwhile, some stores have been selling Christmas items for almost a month now.

The college football season has been nearly as discombobulating. Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Southern California all have losing records, coaches are already being fired and some idiot set the Toomer's Corner tree on fire.

"I guess this is the time that we live in," Alabama coach Nick Saban offered in regards to LSU's canning Les Miles on Sunday, although no one can say they didn't see it coming.

But then there are the bright spots, like the emergence of Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, especially the way he led the jaw-dropping 63-20 victory against then-No. 2 Florida State. That was followed by a seven-touchdown performance against Marshall, which sent the Heisman Trophy hype into overdrive.

This is nothing new. From Notre Dame quarterback Joe Theismann's changing the pronunciation of his name to make it easier to remember with voters, to ESPN analyst Beano Cook's prediction that Ron Powlus would win the award twice, boisterous ballyhoo is as much a part of college football as tailgating.

Jackson has also been nothing short of outstanding.

He leads the nation with 12 rushing touchdowns and is sixth in rushing yards with 526. His 13 passing touchdowns are tied for fifth, the 1,330 passing yards (332.5 average) rank ninth and his 176.7 passer-efficiency rating 10th.

Here's the entire list of teams that have scored more than his 25 offensive touchdowns this season (other than Louisville): Michigan. That's it. Those with 25 are Texas Tech, South Florida and Washington, and No. 1 Alabama has scored 24.

Consequently, Jackson has become the early odds-on favorite to win college football's most prestigious award.

Name	School	Odds
Lamar Jackson	Louisville	-250
Christian McCaffrey	Stanford	+700
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	+700
Deshaun Watson	Clemson	+900
Jabrill Peppers	Michigan	+1600

But it's only been four games. Jackson has a long way to go, and the leader of the pack at this point usually doesn't end up winning.

Last year was a perfect example.

The first time Alabama running back Derrick Henry was asked by Crimson Tide reporters if he thought he had a chance at the Heisman was October 19, a couple of days after torching Texas A&M for 236 rushing yards.

He cut off the question with an abrupt "No."

On that same day, SI.com did an updated Heisman Watch, naming LSU running back Leonard Fournette the "Halfway Heisman winner." Henry was barely mentioned at the end, like he was a distant blip on a wide-ranging radar.

And then that blip started getting larger, gaining more and more momentum as the Crimson Tide kept churning toward another national championship. Fournette ended up not being a finalist for the award, which meant a trip to New York for the ceremony, and finished sixth in the voting.

Something similar occurred the previous year as well. On Oct. 8, Grantland—remember the website Grantland?—had as a sub-headline that the Heisman front-runners were: Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State; Nick Marshall, QB, Auburn." It also called Arizona State's Jaelen Strong the dark horse for the award.

Prescott finished eighth, and Marshall was out of the top 10. Arizona linebacker Scooby Wright III ended up being the top vote-getter in the Grand Canyon State.

Four games into his 2012 season no one knew who Johnny Manziel was, and Texas A&M didn't upset Alabama until November 10. In 2013, Manziel was considered a front-runner along with Oregon's Marcus Mariota at the end of September, only to see Florida State's Jameis Winston pull away during the second half of the season.

Mike Stobe/Getty Images

The point is, Heisman Trophies aren't won in September. Just ask Kenny Hill and Tate Forcier, who got off to huge starts in recent years for Texas A&M and Michigan, respectively. They usually aren't won in October either.

It's what you do when the stakes are highest that count the most, like how Alabama running back Mark Ingram Jr. showed in 2009. In 2011, Baylor's Robert Griffin III passed for 320 yards against Texas to close the regular season and lock up his award. Mariota had to get his team to the inaugural College Football Playoff to finally win in 2014.

That's why Henry didn't talk about possibly winning the Heisman when preparing to face Tennessee. He waited until after Alabama defeated Florida in the SEC Championship Game to admit: "It'd mean everything, man. It'd be a dream come true. It makes my heart beat just thinking about it."

The potential for distraction was obviously a factor, but Henry knew he hadn't won anything yet. Neither had Alabama. After Tennessee, he notched 210 rushing yards against LSU, 204 at Mississippi State and 271 at Auburn, all in November, and then 189 vs. Florida to break Herschel Walker's SEC rushing record. Even then, the voting was still pretty close.

"It's a tough league in the SEC, with a lot of great teams, and anybody can be beat," Henry said. "So I just wanted to stay locked in with my teammates and make sure we're doing what we're supposed to do while working hard and getting better every week. Just so we can go out there and perform and play a great game."

Working against Jackson is Louisville's schedule, which for now has only two ranked opponents on it the rest of the season. Saturday it visits No. 5 Clemson, and Nov. 17 the Cardinals visit No. 6 Houston. He won't be in the spotlight as often as some other candidates, so those almost become must-wins. Four of the six Heisman finalists the last two years were poised to participate in the College Football Playoff.

Clemson, of course, is led by quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was a finalist last year along with Stanford's Christian McCaffrey. If Louisville loses to Clemson, it would be very difficult for anyone to vote Jackson ahead of Watson regardless of their numbers. Plus, if Ohio State can run the table, J.T. Barrett could get a lot of regional support as its only real candidate.

Heisman voters are fickle (and yes, I'm one of them), but thanks to online voting they can now wait until the last minute to vote and see the full body of work. That only adds to the pressure that will rise with each passing week and may be tougher to deal with than any opponent.

Jackson might still end up winning the Heisman, but his chase has only just begun.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.

Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.