Wisconsin vs. Michigan: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
The No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers will provide the first major test for Jim Harbaugh's fourth-ranked Michigan Wolverines on Saturday afternoon in a Big Ten clash.
Victories over LSU and Michigan State have propelled Wisconsin into the national conversation, but Paul Chryst's team is entering a critical month. The Badgers' upcoming slate includes Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa and Nebraska.
Although October isn't a make-or-break stretch for the Wolverines, any regular-season loss complicates their championship goal. Michigan is 4-0 and opened as a 10-point favorite, per Odds Shark.
Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET, and the intra-division showdown will be broadcast on ABC.
Wisconsin Keys to Victory
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Don't Waste Chances
Chances. In analysis, it can be a lazy, vague term if not defined. For Wisconsin on Saturday, chances specifically means opportunities to extend drives and score touchdowns.
Because if you come at the Wolverines, you best not miss.
Through four games, Michigan's defense is No. 1 in the country on third down and has the most sacks and the most tackles for loss. The unit also ranks No. 9 in the red zone, has allowed the 11th-fewest yards and has surrendered the 13th-fewest points.
Whenever the Badgers avoid a 3rd-and-long situation or enter scoring territory, they absolutely must convert.
Induce an Inefficient Passing Offense
Michigan wants to run the ball, but Harbaugh is more than comfortable letting Wilton Speight control the offense through the air. So far, no opponent has managed to stop the first-year starter.
Speight has completed 63.2 percent of his passes for 875 yards, nine touchdowns and just one interception.
His only major blemishes are an under-thrown interception to open the season and a 3-of-12 start against Colorado. Speight's line after those two developments? Just your ordinary 25-of-30 clip.
Once the sophomore settles in, he's an efficient distributor willing to test every level of the field. Wisconsin must try to pressure Speight enough that his internal quarterback clock forces rushed decisions and lower-percentage throws.
Michigan Keys to Victory
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Timely Success on the Ground
Wisconsin boasts a dominant front seven. Suggesting that any team "dominate the trenches" or "establish the running game" is expecting too much. But timely success is critical.
Even if the Wolverines manage fewer than 100 rushing yards—and that's a realistic possibility—the statistical average isn't what's most important. Did they convert 3rd-and-short? Did they score at the goal line? Could they sustain a drive to burn the clock?
Michigan doesn't need to control the line of scrimmage all game long, but the offense must pose enough of a threat on the ground that Wisconsin has to respect both options.
Force the Freshman to Win
Alex Hornibrook led a game-winning drive against Georgia State and helped the Badgers demolish Michigan State. It's fair to acknowledge those success while crediting the defense for playing the biggest role in wins over LSU and the Spartans.
The Wolverines need to make Hornibrook prove he can carry the offense. For that to happen, Michigan needs to build—and retain—an early lead while limiting Wisconsin's success on the ground.
Hornibrook has thrown two interceptions in 43 attempts. Don Brown's blitz-heavy scheme will likely force some poor decisions if the Badgers need to rely on Hornibrook's arm.
Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Corey Clement and Dare Ogunbowale, Running Backs
The Badgers have a predictable offense, but that doesn't mean they're easy to stop—nor does it equate to overwhelming success.
Of the 62 teams currently attempting at least 40 rushes per game, Arkansas, Duke and Wisconsin are the only schools from a power-conference program with an average below four yards.
Although Michigan's defense is stout up the middle, it has surrendered a few long runs outside the tackles. Per B/R Insights, opponents have gained 161 yards on 22 attempts around the right edge, while Wisconsin has picked up 112 yards on 25 carries.
Don't be surprised if Corey Clement and Dare Ogunbowale look to bounce toward the sideline.
Vince Biegel, Edge-Rusher
T.J. Watt garnered the headlines for a six-tackle, 2.5-sack performance against Michigan State. Vince Biegel was just as disruptive, despite not making a large impression in the box score.
According to Pro Football Focus, Biegel piled up a ridiculous 10 quarterback hurries and tallied two hits.
Biegel rushes from both sides, so he presents a massive challenge for the first-year starter, left tackle Grant Newsome, and right tackle Erik Magnuson, who is an NFL prospect. Michigan might ask its tight ends—likely Jake Butt and Ian Bunting—to chip Biegel, too.
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Michigan Players to Watch
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Jehu Chesson, Wide Receiver
The threat of a deep pass can be just as important as a completed throw. Jehu Chesson is the downfield option that complements Amara Darboh, who's a reliable target on short and intermediate routes.
Chesson has been relatively quiet this season. Through four games, he's managed eight receptions for 145 yards, adding a 17-yard touchdown run on a jet sweep. Compare that to last season, where he had 919 yards from scrimmage and 11 offensive scores.
Michigan assuredly would enjoy a breakout game, but one or two big receptions would keep Wisconsin from putting another safety in the box to stop the run.
Jabrill Peppers, Linebacker/Returner/Offensive Weapon
Butt, Chesson and Darboh are a formidable trio of pass-catchers and will always be important pieces on game day. Still, it's not a stretch to say Jabrill Peppers is Michigan's best offensive player.
Harbaugh isn't afraid to use the versatile star, but the four previous games haven't necessitated a major role. Peppers has a total of two offensive touches so far. Since Wisconsin has an elite defense, though, that could change in a major way.
On defense, the Wolverines just lost Jeremy Clark for the season due to an ACL tear in his right knee. Peppers spends plenty of time in coverage, but his responsibilities at nickel may increase, too.
Oh, and Peppers has returned a punt at least 50 yards in two straight games. As Harbaugh said in a video posted by Big Ten Network, "He's good at football."
What They're Saying
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Wisconsin
Both the Badgers and Wolverines hired new defensive coordinators in the offseason. In a video posted by Madison.com, Chryst praised both the players and Brown.
"I think they've done a nice job, similar to ours, with the transition. Looks to me their players understand what they're doing, have confidence in it. I think they've got a really good group of players across the board. And so, good scheme with good players. That's a good recipe. For us, it's a challenge."
Michigan
Hornibrook led a game-winning drive against Georgia State and made his first career start in the 30-6 win over Michigan State. According to ESPN's Dan Murphy, Harbaugh said he's impressed with the freshman.
"He really acquitted himself well," Harbaugh said. "Made a name for himself. Very impressed with how he played; the accuracy of his throws, the poise with which he played, it was impressive."
Prediction
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Wisconsin put together a spectacular September, but the unblemished record will disappear on the first day of October.
Though the Badgers will hold Michigan below 100 yards rushing on the afternoon, Speight will throw touchdowns to Darboh and Butt to give the Wolverines a 14-3 lead at the break.
Shortly after halftime, Hornibrook will guide Wisconsin's lone touchdown drive of the day. However, the Wolverines defense will only allow three points for the remainder of the game, and Peppers will score his first offensive touchdown.
A late field goal from Kenny Allen will secure the victory for Michigan, which will move to 5-0 on the season.
Prediction: Michigan 24, Wisconsin 13
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from CFBStats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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