The Bettor's Guide to NFL Week 3

With two data points to judge NFL teams by, we finally have a feel for what teams may look like during a 16-game season. Using that knowledge, recent trends and reversed point spreads, we'll break down the remaining 15 games of Week 3 from a gambling perspective.

Follow us as we go game by game, attempting to give you an edge on every field on Sunday and Monday. As always, the point spread odds are courtesy of Odds Shark, which compiles lines from several sites into one convenient space.

Record ATS total: 12-19

Record ATS last week: 6-10 

Houston @ New England

Associated Press

Line: Houston -1

Result: New England 27, Houston 0

Bill Belichick won NFL coach of the year on Thursday Night Football this week. Not only did he survive a road game with backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo against the Arizona Cardinals as a double-digit underdog without star tight end Rob Gronkowski and half the starting offensive line, but Belichick now has a win with reserve rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett under his belt as well.

The Patriots are 3-0, outscoring their competition 81-45 with two first-time starters and quarterback Tom Brady suspended. That's amazing, especially in today's quarterback-heavy NFL.

Both Brissett and Houston Texans quarterback Brock Osweiler averaged only about five yards per pass in this game, making it brutal to watch, but the Patriots running game, which featured three touchdowns, was the biggest difference between the two squads on Thursday.

Taking Belichick when he's less than a touchdown favorite is one of the easiest bets in sports, and this game hovered around a pick'em all week.

Cover: New England

Baltimore @ Jacksonville

Associated Press

Opening line: Jacksonville PK (-110)

Best home line: Jacksonville +1 (-105)

Best away line: Baltimore PK (-110)

No one wants to bet on the Jacksonville Jaguars right now; it's why you can find the Baltimore Ravens as road favorites this week. After a 38-14 loss in San Diego, the Jaguars return home to little optimism with a 0-2 record, but this line is a bit much.

The truth is, under quarterback Blake Bortles, Jacksonville is a different team at home. On the road, the Jaguars have a 1-14 record by a score of 275-449. At home, Jacksonville is a much-improved 7-9 by a score of 343-357.

The difference between the two versions of the Jaguars seems to be capitalizing on the turnover margin. On the road, Bortles is 0-3 when throwing no interceptions, while he's 4-0 at home when throwing no interceptions.

In Baltimore's last 10 road games, it has won just two in regulation, including last week's contest against Cleveland, which featured a blown 20-2 lead from the Browns. They are regarded as one of the worst teams in the league from a power ranking standpoint, and they built a near three-touchdown lead over the Ravens, if not for a returned extra point after their third score of the first quarter.

According to TeamRankings.com, Baltimore was just 0-2-1 against the spread as a road favorite last year, joining the Atlanta Falcons as the only teams to play three or more games as road favorites and not cover. People will see 2-0 and 0-2 going head-to-head and think they have easy money, but Las Vegas builds casinos off taking bets from that lazy mentality.

The pick: Jacksonville +1

Washington @ New York Giants

Associated Press

Opening line: New York Giants -4 (-110)

Best home line: New York Giants -4.5 (-105)

Best away line: Washington +4.5 (-107)

This game depends on how you view the New York Giants. They have had some red-zone woes, which were only inflated by the squad kneeling for a field goal to win the game against the New Orleans Saints, but if you think they can turn that around, you should align yourself with the Giants this week.

Last season, the Washington Redskins played just three playoff teams: the New England Patriots, the Carolina Panthers and the Green Bay Packers. They lost all three games by a combined score of 106-44. They entered the playoffs on a four-game winning streak, but their zero combined wins over teams over .500 proved to be the story of their season.

Against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a presumed playoff team and one of only two squads to win both of their games by multiple scores thus far in the season, Washington lost 38-16, making its combined score 144-60 against teams above .500 over their last four games. If you think the Giants, who are 2-0, are a playoff contender, this should be a giant red flag.

Kirk Cousins can't get that Washington offense going, despite all the toys he has, and the Redskins seem to be struggling with the concept of mismatch receivers picking apart their zone defense. Unfortunately for them, Odell Beckham Jr., Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz make up one of the league's best trios two weeks into the regular season.

The pick: New York Giants -4.5

Arizona @ Buffalo

Associated Press

Opening line: Buffalo +5.5 (-110)

Best home line: Buffalo +4.5 (-110)

Best away line: Arizona -3.5 (-110)

You need to look for certain key numbers when deciding when to put money on a team, and the Buffalo Bills, who you can still find as 4.5-point underdogs at home, are over the key numbers of both three and four.

There had been concerns about Carson Palmer throughout the preseason and in Week 1 when his Arizona Cardinals lost at home to the Jimmy Garoppolo-led New England Patriots, but questions about him went away after the Cardinals' 40-7 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

That's reactionary for a couple of reasons. First, the squad was able to play back-to-back home games heading into that one, as this is its first road trip of the season. Second, the Buccaneers aren't the Bills.

While the Bills have regressed defensively under head coach Rex Ryan, the Buccaneers' top three cornerbacks all measured in at 5'10" and change at their respective combines and pro days, making them poor matchups for spread teams like Arizona. Buffalo's Ronald Darby (5'11") and Stephon Gilmore (6'1") are longer than any of Tampa Bay's preferred base or nickel options.

On top of that, the Bucs, who finished 6-10 with seven losses by multiple scores last season, were one of the most volatile teams in the league in 2015. To use them as a barometer for success would be a mistake.

Buffalo fired its offensive coordinator Greg Roman this past week, which might kick-start the running game to get LeSean McCoy going.

While it's hard to buy into the 0-2 Bills, they are coming off a long week of rest, have made changes in leadership and have yet to lose a game by multiple scores, which means they are just two plays from being 2-0. If you take into account a six-point swing, some of these lines would make Arizona more than a 10-point favorite at home, like it was when it lost outright to a backup quarterback in Week 1.

The pick: Buffalo +4.5

Denver @ Cincinnati

Associated Press

Opening line: Cincinnati -3.5 (-110)

Best home line: Cincinnati -3 (-125)

Best away line: Denver +3.5 (-110)

Surprisingly, the Cincinnati Bengals haven't been able to get their running game going. If not for a few clutch plays against the New York Jets, they would be 0-2, as the Pittsburgh Steelers never really let them in the game in Week 2.

That's a huge issue for Cincinnati, as it's going to have to pass the ball against this Denver Broncos defense, which is the best pass defense on paper in the league. Even though DeMarcus Ware is out, Von Miller, Shane Ray and Shaquil Barrett still contribute to a loaded pass-rushing unit.

This line values the two teams as even squads, but Denver's defense is going to be the most impressive unit on the field. If the Broncos can take away receiver A.J. Green, the Bengals are going to be in huge trouble.

Tie goes to the unstoppable force.

The pick: Denver +3.5

Cleveland @ Miami

Associated Press

Opening line: Miami -7 (-110)

Best home line: Miami -9.5 (-110)

Best away line: Cleveland +10 (-110)

This is an overreaction to a quarterback injury. Sure, it's not ideal that the Cleveland Browns have to start Cody Kessler, a third-round, third-string rookie quarterback, but the Miami Dolphins were almost a touchdown underdog to the New England Patriots last week, who had a backup passer as well.

Now Miami is a two-score favorite at home? This line has already moved up two-and-a-half points. You're going to struggle to find anyone in America who will try to make the case that Cleveland is going to win this game straight up.

The Dolphins offense couldn't do what the Los Angeles Rams offense could—outscore the miserable Seattle Seahawks offense—and it made a bunch of garbage-time scores against the Patriots to make the game look closer than it was on the field.

Sometimes the best bets are the ugliest ones, and we'll go ahead and stick our neck out for the Browns losing this matchup but covering the point spread this week.

The pick: Cleveland +10

Oakland @ Tennessee

Associated Press

Opening line: Tennessee PK (-110)

Best home line: Tennessee -1.5 (-110)

Best away line: Oakland +2 (-110)

Oakland is going west to east for this game, but since when can you trust the Tennessee Titans at home? They have won four games under quarterback Marcus Mariota, and if Detroit didn't get back-to-back penalties on touchdowns, the Titans could have started the season 0-2.

In just Week 1, this team had two offensive turnovers that led to defensive touchdowns. This is not a team you can trust. This line opened as a coin-toss game, but a Week 2 win for Tennessee and a Week 2 loss for Oakland have swung the line.

We will find out a lot about Tennessee in this game. At the end against Detroit, it was clear the offense could function when it used a more comfortable spread scheme. Maybe this is the transition game to send the Titans into the right direction, but I want no part of a team that is still trying to find itself.

Tennessee hasn't won back-to-back games since 2013.

The pick: Oakland +2

Minnesota @ Carolina

Associated Press

Opening line: Carolina -6.5 (-110)

Best home line: Carolina -7 (-110)

Best away line: Minnesota +7 (-110)

Last week, the Minnesota Vikings were underdogs at home by more than a field goal. If you reversed that line, the Green Bay Packers would have been about a touchdown favorite in Minnesota.

This week, the Carolina Panthers are favorites by a touchdown at home against the Vikings. That means on a neutral field, the Packers, who are a Davante Adams reception away from being 0-2, would be seven-point favorites over the Vikings, while the Panthers, who were one score against the defending Super Bowl champion away from going 2-0, are just four-point favorites on a neutral field.

The Vikings have lost left tackle Matt Kalil and running back Adrian Peterson in the past week, but the only story that people are talking about is Sam Bradford's connection with Stefon Diggs, who made plays against a first-year full-time starting cornerback in Damarious Randall, with the Packers' top cornerback, Sam Shields, out with a concussion.

Taking into account last week's line, this spread makes no sense, unless you think that the Panthers are worse than the Packers from a power ranking perspective. If you do, you need more help than we can provide.

The pick: Carolina -7

Detroit @ Green Bay

Associated Press

Opening line: Green Bay -8 (-100)

Best home line: Green Bay -7.5 (-110)

Best away line: Detroit +7.5 (-110)

Why are the Green Bay Packers a touchdown favorite over anyone this season? They nearly lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, who are 5-14 in their last 19 games. If not for an insane Davante Adams reception, the Packers' red-zone execution of settling for field goals would have cost them the game.

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford now has 23 touchdowns to three interceptions under offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, and Detroit well might have the passing game advantage this week at Lambeau Field. In 10 games under Cooter's guidance, Detroit has yet to lose a game by more than a touchdown, which is what this line is set at.

At the same time, since the San Diego Chargers played one-on-one against the Packers receivers in 2015, showing the NFL the blueprint to dealing with their less-than-stellar wideouts, Green Bay has won only two out of its 13 regular-season games by more than a touchdown.

Remember last year in Cooter's first game as an offensive coordinator that the Lions beat the Packers in Green Bay for the first time since 1991, and they were winning as time expired at home when Aaron Rodgers threw a Hail Mary pass to shock them. Don't buy into the brand name of Green Bay this week, as the Packers lost five of their six games in two clusters in 2015.

The pick: Detroit +7.5

San Francisco @ Seattle

Associated Press

Opening line: Seattle -11 (-110)

Best home line: Seattle -9 (-105)

Best away line: San Francisco +10 (-110)

There is fear that some may overcorrect to the San Francisco 49ers based on their 28-0 Week 1 win against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football (just as some did after Week 1 of last year), but this 49ers team isn't last year's. That single effort featured the highest scoring from San Francisco since the Jim Harbaugh era.

On the flip side, the Rams, who the 49ers routed by four touchdowns, just beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 2. In two games, the Seahawks have scored only 15 points, but they are 10-point favorites at home this week. Something just doesn't add up here.

Seattle has scored only one touchdown this season behind the worst offensive line in football. Until it figures out how to manage that, it shouldn't be more than a one-score favorite against anyone.

The Seahawks are now 4-4 straight up in the last three Septembers. In that eight-game stretch, they've won just two games by 10 or more points.

The pick: San Francisco +10

Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay

Associated Press

Opening line: Tampa Bay -3.5 (-110)

Best home line: Tampa Bay -4.5 (-107)

Best away line: Los Angeles +5.5 (-110)

The Los Angeles Rams have yet to score an offensive touchdown this season. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored fewer than 14 points at home just once since Jameis Winston took over as the starting quarterback.

The Buccaneers defense struggles against teams that can pass efficiently, which is why Tampa Bay lost seven multi-score games last season and was blown out by the Arizona Cardinals, but it can stop the run. Luckily for the Bucs, the Rams can't pass the ball worth a lick, as they're one of the more one-sided offenses in the league and will be until first overall pick Jared Goff develops.

Maybe taking Tampa Bay in a line over three points should scare you, but the Rams covering any road game by fewer than three against a functional offense should scare you even more. Some may be low on Tampa Bay, as it just lost to Arizona on the road, while others have inflated expectations for Los Angeles, who beat the Seahawks at home last week.

Now is the time to strike.

The pick: Tampa Bay -4.5

Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia

Associated Press

Opening line: Philadelphia +5.5 (-110)

Best home line: Philadelphia +3.5 (-105)

Best away line: Pittsburgh -3.5 (-105)

Only two teams have won both of their games thus far into the season by multiple scores. They are the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles, who are going toe-to-toe this week.

The Steelers have won in big spotlight games against the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football and against the Cincinnati Bengals in a battle of AFC contenders. Meanwhile, the Eagles are coming off a short week after thrashing the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.

That one day of preparation doesn't signify a huge line swing, though. At home, the Eagles are underdogs by more than a field goal, which means that the Steelers would be nearly 10-point favorites in Pittsburgh, despite the fact that Philadelphia leads the NFL in point differential.

The Eagles pass rush is being underrated here. While Carson Wentz's hot start as a rookie is the big story in Pennsylvania right now, Jim Schwartz's defense has turned into a force, and it's coming right at Ben Roethlisberger, who tends to hold the ball just a little too long.

Antonio Brown may be a ticking time bomb for defenses, but if he can't get free before Eagles pass-rushers Fletcher Cox, Vinny Curry, Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin get home, then that's a moot point. There are just too many points for a 2-0 home dog here.

The pick: Philadelphia +3.5 (-105)

San Diego @ Indianapolis

Associated Press

Opening line: Indianapolis -3 (+100)

Best home line: San Diego +2.5 (+110)

Best away line: Indianapolis -3 (+100)

The San Diego Chargers had a 24-3 lead against the Kansas City Chiefs on the road and a 35-0 lead against the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. The Indianapolis Colts had a 33-second lead against the Detroit Lions and a two-minute-and 47-second lead against the Denver Broncos.

As of right now, the Colts are seventh-to-last in point differential, while the Chargers are fifth-best in the league. Still, this line, for the most part, declares that both teams would be even on a neutral field.

Let's break this down unit by unit.

In the offensive backfield, Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon strike more fear in the heart of defenses, due to the Chargers offensive line, than Andrew Luck and Frank Gore do. Indianapolis may have the edge at receiver, but San Diego will miss Keenan Allen to a torn ACL, and Donte Moncrief just broke his shoulder blade in practice.

In the front seven, the Colts have no identity, while the Chargers at least have the pass-rushing threat of Melvin Ingram and the veteran linebacker presence of Manti Te'o and Denzel Perryman. In the defensive backfield, Indianapolis hangs its hat on Vontae Davis, who returned to practice this week, but San Diego's Jason Verrett has a case to be the best defensive back on the field.

So where exactly are the Colts better than the Chargers? According to TeamRankings.com, San Diego is 7-2 against the spread since the start of the 2015 season as the road team.

The pick: San Diego +2.5 (+110)

New York Jets @ Kansas City

Associated Press

Opening line: Kansas City -4 (-110)

Best home line: Kansas City -3 (+103)

Best away line: New York Jets +3 (-110)

In Kansas City's 2015-2016 stretch at home, they've covered only two of their eight home games against the spread. The New York Jets are coming off extended rest after playing on Thursday Night Football against the Buffalo Bills last week.

That's a horrible spot for Kansas City to be in, and that's before you consider the Chiefs were down 21 points against the San Diego Chargers in Week 1 and 10 points against the Houston Texans in Week 2, who might both be sub-.500 teams at the end of the season.

On the other hand, the Jets have never been down by more than four points at any point this season. If not for two failed red-zone drives, which resulted in a 20-yard and a 23-yard field goal, the Jets would have beaten Cincinnati, who they lost to by one point, and would be sitting here with a 2-0 record. Heck, if they didn't miss a point-after attempt, they would have sent that game into overtime.

This line suggests that these two squads would have been even on a neutral field, which doesn't correlate with their 2016 performances. Kansas City is still living off the hype of being a playoff team, while New York's 2015 success was forgotten as it barely missed the AFC playoffs.

The pick: New York Jets +3

Chicago @ Dallas

Associated Press

Opening line: Dallas -4 (-110)

Best home line: Dallas -7 (+105)

Best away line: Chicago +7.5 (-115)

Since the start of the 2015 regular season, the Dallas Cowboys are just 1-6-1 against the spread at home, according to TeamRankings.com. Last year, the Chicago Bears were 6-2 against the spread on the road, per the same site.

Sure, the Bears will be missing quarterback Jay Cutler, but at some point you have to ask how many points Cutler should influence the line over his replacement, Brian Hoyer, who has been a traveling spot starter in recent seasons.

The Cowboys have yet to win a game by a full touchdown under rookie quarterback Dak Prescott, and that's the line set for this weekend's matchup. Prescott has kept the Cowboys in one-score games as a starter, but he has also yet to throw an interception.

Can Dallas overcome a one-score swing off a turnover? Prescott can't continue his streak of interception-less games.

Neither of these teams is particularly good at throwing the ball, running the ball, stopping the run or defending the pass, so why should there be as big of a split between the two from a power ranking standpoint? In this situation, you just need to grab the big underdog, which in this case is Chicago.

Happy Sunday Night Football, America.

The pick: Chicago +7.5

Atlanta @ New Orleans

Associated Press

Opening line: New Orleans -3.5 (-110)

Best home line: New Orleans -3 (-110)

Best away line: Atlanta +3 (-102)

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are fairly similar teams. Both have had success passing the ball while finishing in the middle of the pack in the NFL in rushing, and they both have liabilities on the defensive side of the ball.

With that being said, all liabilities are not created equal. In a shootout type of game, you need to look at the defensive backs on the field.

Atlanta has Desmond Trufant, a spitting image of a young Darrelle Revis. On the flip side, Delvin Breaux, New Orleans' top cornerback, just had surgery to correct his fractured fibula, and its second-year third-round pick, P.J. Williams, is on the injured reserve list for the second straight season, this time due to a concussion.

This game is even from a power ranking perspective, which shouldn't be surprising as the two squads have performed similarly this season and are divisional rivals, but when you look at matchups, Falcons receiver Julio Jones versus whoever lines up across from him is going to be money for Matt Ryan.

The Saints are just 6-10-1 against the spread since the start of the 2014 regular season, per TeamRankings.com. Their home-field advantage doesn't mean as much as it used to.

The pick: Atlanta +3

Locks of the Week

George Gojkovich/Getty Images

1. Detroit (+7.5) @ Green Bay
2. Oakland (+2) @ Tennessee
3. Denver (+3) @ Cincinnati
4. San Diego (+2.5) @ Indianapolis
5. Chicago (+7.5) @ Dallas