Bleacher Report's Expert College Football Predictions for Week 4
The fourth week of the college football season will feature conference-defining matchups, including Florida's quest to top Tennessee for the 12th straight season, Michigan State's cross-division battle with Wisconsin and the "Hot Seat Bowl" between LSU and Auburn.
Who will survive? Who will falter?
Bleacher Report experts Adam Kramer, Barrett Sallee, Chris Walsh, Ben Axelrod, Greg Couch and Michael Felder pick the week's biggest games of the fourth Saturday of the season.
Will Tennessee Break the 11-Year Losing Streak to Florida?
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Adam Kramer
Yes, it will not be pretty or easy or overwhelmingly convincing, but Tennessee will find a way to beat Florida on Saturday. The injuries to the Gators, particularly at quarterback, are an enormous story heading into this week. The injuries to Tennessee, particularly on defense, are not great either. The Vols have not looked particularly sharp, with the exception of some moments against Virginia Tech, although they should still be able to sluggishly get by the Gators. Famous last words, perhaps.
Barrett Sallee
Yes, but I don't love the pick because I don't love where either team is at the moment. Tennessee can't block, struggles in the downfield passing game and is banged up. Florida can't block, is starting backup quarterback Austin Appleby and doesn't have an established wide receiver outside other than Antonio Callaway. Give me Tennessee, because I'll take a veteran quarterback who's started for four years in the system behind a shaky offensive line at home over a fill-in who's starting his first SEC game behind a shaky offensive line on the road.
Chris Walsh
A week ago, I would have said no. But with Luke Del Rio out with a sprained knee, I reluctantly have to say yes. While the SEC has suddenly become a haven for former Purdue quarterbacks, as Austin Appleby is expected to start for the Gators, expect Tennessee to brush up on its Big Ten film study and win a close game.
Ben Axelrod
No. Florida has the top defense in college football, and Tennessee might be the most disappointing 3-0 team in college football history. Even without Luke Del Rio, I expect the Gators to once again turn Rocky Top into Gator Bait. If one thing has been apparent these past three weeks, it's that Tennessee's time as a contender is limited.
Greg Couch
The Gators will have a new quarterback, and the game is in Knoxville. Whatever. Florida wins. Tennessee is that school that keeps thinking it's a title contender every year and then isn't. This year, the Vols are 3-0, so hopes haven't been crushed yet. Florida's defense will take care of that.
Michael Felder
No. Even with a backup quarterback, Florida is going to see some success against a Volunteers defense that is banged up. On the other side of things, after limping past Ohio, it seems the Vols still aren't clear on how to get the offense going. Florida will key on the quarterback as a part of the run scheme and play responsibility ball for the win.
Can Michigan State Announce Itself as a B1G Front-Runner vs. Wisconsin?
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Kramer
Didn't it just do that? Actually, let's pause for a moment. What exactly constitutes a Big Ten front-runner, because it still feels like Ohio State and Michigan are a level above Michigan State? That being said, Sparty's victory over Notre Dame was meaningful and telling, even if it got a little weird at the end. And a win over Wisconsin will validate an impressive road win. It likely won't lift Michigan State to the same level as a few others, but the gap between these three teams and everyone else in the conference will widen.
Sallee
Nope, not even with a big win—which will happen against Wisconsin. This game is going to be ugly, old-school and very "Big Ten," which plays into Michigan State's hands. But the secondary hasn't been great, and I don't think the Spartans can get into shootouts against teams with elite defenses and dynamic offenses—which is something they'll have to do against Ohio State and Michigan down the road.
Walsh
I don't know if I'd go as far as to say front-runner, but it can definitely make a statement for being a legitimate contender with a win—again. This is one of those games in which the home team almost always seems to win. If the Spartans do, we have a whole month of hype building up to the Michigan game.
Axelrod
Not as long as Ohio State is still undefeated—which the Buckeyes will be as they enjoy a bye week. No one respects what Mark Dantonio has done at Michigan State more than I do, and the Spartans are the defending Big Ten champs until further notice, but Urban Meyer just has Ohio State working on a whole other level right now. Even with a convincing win over the new front-runners to win the Big Ten West, Wisconsin, the best Michigan State can play for right now is second place.
Couch
Michigan State announces it every year. It's just that no one is listening. Understated, direct, Midwestern smashmouth football is actually alive and well again, but it takes flash to sell. Wisconsin also can announce itself as a B1G front-runner. To a Midwesterner, this is what football is all about.
Felder
You mean can the Spartans beat the team that should have lost to Georgia State to prove they're a favorite in the Big Ten? Nah. Michigan State certainly looked better against Notre Dame than it did against Furman, but it has holes to be exploited in the secondary and a limited pass game that's still unproven. Until the Spartans get into it with Michigan and Ohio State, tough to tell if they're real enough to win it all.
Does Ole Miss Bounce Back vs. Georgia?
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Kramer
Yes, but barely. This is a lot to ask of freshman quarterback Jacob Eason, although he has certainly looked the part thus far. I still feel, however, that Ole Miss is the superior team and will greatly benefit from the game at home. My one point of doubt in picking the Rebels is the physical and emotional toll taken last week and the early part of the season in general. The response here will be fascinating.
Sallee
Yes, as long as Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze has his best week of coaching ever. While the two losses this season have been gut-wrenching, there's still plenty to play for in Oxford. The SEC West title is very much a possibility considering the division is wide open, and Alabama has lots of stumbling blocks left on the schedule. The Georgia offensive line has been awful, Ole Miss will rattle quarterback Jacob Eason and the Rebels will impose their high-octane style on the Bulldogs en route to a wild win.
Walsh
One has to wonder how much the Rebels have left emotionally after blowing yet another big lead, this time to Alabama. But this will be a classic showdown featuring the running game (Nick Chubb) versus the passing attack (Chad Kelly). With two losses, the pressure's off Ole Miss, which is when it seems to be most dangerous. Look for the Bulldogs to jump out in front and then see the Rebels come back and win.
Axelrod
I think so. There's not a tougher team in America to evaluate right now than Ole Miss. The Rebels looked so good during certain stretches against both Florida State and Alabama but also showcased some characteristics of a fatally flawed team. I'll give Chad Kelly the benefit of the doubt for one more week, though.
Couch
Ole Miss would be the best team in the country if a game were 35 minutes. It's not that the Rebels keep choking away leads—it's that they get worn out. It's like a distance runner who takes too big a lead and then tries to hang on for dear life. This time, they pull it off. Take Ole Miss.
Felder
Absolutely the Rebels bounce back and get a W. After that heartbreaking loss to Alabama, they're definitely sitting in film thinking, "We should have won." Kirby Smart's squad has looked far from impressive, and the offense has left plenty to be desired. In a game against the best offense in the SEC, getting into a shootout is going to be a nightmare scenario for Georgia.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Is Baylor the Big 12's Last CFP Contender?
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Kramer
No. Let's just...no. Let us not declare a conference dead from the playoff until at least Halloween. Cool? It has not been a great start for the Big 12, especially in games out of conference. But it is still so early, and chaos is destined to hit others at some point. Baylor is in the mix. Oklahoma State is a botched final play away from being fine. TCU could still rally. Oklahoma has to pick up the pieces but still has talent. This is a sub-optimal start to say the very least. There are legitimate questions about pretty much every team in the conference. But let's not pour dirt on 'em just yet.
Sallee
No, no, no, no, no. We aren't doing this. Remember Week 2 in 2014, when "the Big Ten was dead" after a horrific week? All Ohio State did was run the table and win the title. Baylor and West Virginia are still undefeated, Texas' loss to Cal still only counted as one loss, Baylor vs. Oklahoma State this weekend will probably establish a front-runner, TCU could get hot and we know chaos will ensue around the country at some point. The Big 12 isn't dead; it just stumbled out of the gate a little bit.
Walsh
No, it's already a dead-man-walking conference. It's just a matter of time before it becomes official. From an entertainment standpoint, it'll be fun for everyone else to watch college football's version of demolition derby. West Virginia came out looking good last week by not playing and having a bye, so it didn't have a chance to get smashed up. Baylor's turn is probably coming this week against Oklahoma State.
Axelrod
Yeah, and even that's a stretch because fair or not, it's hard for me to imagine Baylor will get any sort of benefit of the doubt from the College Football Playoff committee. I suppose Texas could run the table, although it'd have to do so in convincing fashion. But even just three weeks in, it's looking like the Big 12 will be the odd man out.
Couch
Technically, TCU is probably still alive. The Big 12 has a credibility problem. Oklahoma has proved to be its best team—and still probably is—but not good enough to compete at the top. Baylor is the "best" hope but has to go undefeated. Four CFP spots for five conferences. Someone is going to be left out. Feels like the music has already stopped and the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are already sitting.
Felder
On paper, absolutely. But we've all seen Baylor play, and there isn't anything about this team that makes you believe it'll run the table in an up-and-down Big 12. Jim Grobe is trying to hold things together there, but it certainly seems like the first of a couple losses for the Bears is waiting on the horizon.
Who's a True Contender, Arkansas or Texas A&M?
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Kramer
Both are interesting, although I'll side with A&M. This is a team I liked before the season began, and its performance thus far has been noteworthy. The offense is still a work in progress at times, but there are so many good pieces in place. The defense has been excellent, and the defensive line, led by Myles Garrett, has been a joy to watch. While it will be close and perhaps one of the weekend's best games, A&M stays unbeaten and gets by the Fightin' Bielemas.
Sallee
Texas A&M, and it'll prove it this weekend. The defense has been solid all year long and is full of athletes from top to bottom, including safety Armani Watts, who's one of the best in the game. The offense has been consistently above average, which is a big step up from last season's struggles. Meanwhile, Arkansas has been getting by opponents that can't exploit its weakness—its offensive line. Texas A&M's defense will expose Arkansas, make a statement to the college football world and establish the Aggies as a true contender in the SEC West.
Walsh
The Aggies. This has tight game written all over it, especially since it's being played at a neutral site. A&M's offense has been steady, and the defense is getting better, allowing just 13.3 points per game. Statistically, Texas A&M is a better team on paper, but Arkansas has been making fewer mistakes.
Axelrod
For now, they both are, but I don't think either one is a true contender. The winner of this week's game will have plenty of momentum, and just like any millennial who watched Johnny Manziel, I'm inclined to side with Texas A&M, but let's be honest: The SEC West is Alabama's and Alabama's alone. These teams have been two of the more pleasant surprises in college football this season, but any sort of status as a contender should prove to be short-lived.
Couch
Contender for what? Second place in the SEC West? Sure, yes. They both have a shot at winning the wild card. Both teams are underrated and playing well. A&M has the defense and a crowd advantage in Arlington, Texas. Good game. Take A&M. Don't bet much.
Felder
I'll take Texas A&M on this either/or question. Arkansas is a nice team that is looking to punch its way to success. The Aggies are slowly developing not only a balanced offense attack but an attack with serious big-play potential. To be a "true contender" is to be a team capable of at least winning its division, and that means beating Alabama. Arkansas isn't going to outpunch the Tide. But if the Aggs can get a great Trevor Knight performance, they can stress Bama's defense out.
Should Washington Be on Upset Alert at Arizona?
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Kramer
My initial response is an emphatic "no." And yet, we still don't know much about Washington. We know the Huskies have outscored opponents 148-30 thus far. We also know that said opponents were Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State. The Huskies are talented. Jake Browning is off to a brilliant start at quarterback, and Myles Gaskin is one of the best young running backs in football. These two alone should be enough to push past a team that struggled against Grambling State a few weekends ago. So, talking through this, despite knowing how weird this sport gets, I'll stick with my original emphatic "no."
Sallee
No, Washington has nothing to worry about. Arizona's defense would have issues stopping a team that consisted of the six people who contributed on this page, and Washington—led by quarterback Jake Browning—is just a slight bit better than we are. Huskies roll and will somehow still manage to fly under the radar.
Walsh
This season, every team should be on upset alert each week. I'm going to start calling it the "Etch A Sketch" season, because every time anyone gets a handle on things, someone comes along and shakes it up. Washington is 3-0, but the opponents have been Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State. Plus, the game will be in Tucson, so it's the Huskies' first road game as well.
Axelrod
Any time a team is still relatively inexperienced as a contender, it should be on upset alert. But I like what Jake Browning and Washington have brought to the table. Outside of Stanford, the Pac-12 is there for the taking, and the Huskies could be the ones to benefit.
Couch
To me, the big upset is that people are so high on Washington. I'm not seeing it at all. Arizona is going to win the game. You have to decide if that's an upset or not.
Felder
No. Arizona is not good. I'm a big Rich Rodriguez fan, but this is a team that is flat-out not very good at a bunch of things on the field—on both sides of the ball. I'm excited to see Washington's squadron get out there and put work in against its first Pac-12 opponent after dusting off Rutgers and some small schools. This defense should feast on the Wildcats.
Which Tigers Reign Supreme, LSU or Auburn?
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Kramer
Give me the Tigers of the LSU variety in a game that might just get a coach fired. I love what I have seen from both of these defenses. They have been excellent. I just have more faith, at least right now, in LSU's offense to score. That is not something I expected to type early on, although it has been that kind of year thus far for Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn on the side of the ball he used to master. This is also a matter of taking Leonard Fournette over the team without Leonard Fournette. While this game should be an offensive struggle, I'll take LSU in a close one.
Sallee
Auburn, because the foundation of running Kamryn Pettway to keep pressure off quarterback Sean White works as long as Malzahn sticks to it. He didn't in the third quarter against Texas A&M, when Pettway had just two carries and Malzahn began tinkering (read: "panicking") with his personnel. Auburn's defense will slow down Fournette enough to put the game in the hands of quarterback Danny Etling, and the Purdue transfer won't be able to come through for LSU in his first road start with the Tigers.
Walsh
I prefer "Detroit," which at least has a shot at the American League playoffs. One of these fanbases is about to go crazy and start screaming for its coach's head. The other will be doing so at a slower pace. The last time they played at Auburn, the home team won 41-7, which you know the LSU coaches will be reminding their players of nonstop this week. Last year, Fournette had 228 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries (averaging 12 yards per carry), which Auburn will be reminding its players of. Look for the Mad Hatter to win on a bizarre call that has everyone saying in disbelief, "Sure, why not?"
Axelrod
There's a lot to like and perhaps even more to dislike about both of these teams, but LSU has the more impressive overall roster. When in doubt, give me the best player on the field, and that's Leonard Fournette. I'm not very confident in the pick, but I am confident in saying this: This one won't be pretty.
Couch
Toughest question of the day. It's amazing that college football slants into one corner of the country like this, to the point where anyone would care about this game. It's basically the Job Opening Bowl (JOB) to determine the best team in the country among those that will fire its coach. That might be unfair to USC. But I'll take Auburn to reign.
Felder
Auburn. Excited to see the deep and talented Auburn front go after Etling and challenge the LSU offensive line. The Bayou Bengals are not the same scoring threat on a play-by-play basis as Texas A&M. With that in mind, Auburn's offense should be in a more comfortable situation here for Malzahn. Should be a hard-fought game, and Auburn squeaks out a much, much-needed win in the division.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
