As Martin Truex Jr. Knows, One Win Does Not a Chase Make

Little did Damon Runyan know, when he reportedly said the following, that it was an insightful description of NASCAR's 10-race Chase for the Sprint Cup: "The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."

Runyan (1884-1946) would be more likely to address boxing, baseball or gambling, and no Chase existed until 2004.

What Martin Truex Jr. established, winning the Chase opener at Chicagoland Speedway, is that he is the swift. So far. For now.

Driver	Finish	Points	Points Back
Martin Truex Jr.	1	2,050	—
Brad Keselowski	5	2,049	1
Kyle Busch	8	2,046	4
Denny Hamlin	6	2,045	5
Joey Logano	2	2,043	7
Chase Elliott	3	2,039	11
Matt Kenseth	9	2,038	12
Jimmie Johnson	12	2,037	13
Carl Edwards	15	2,032	18
Kurt Busch	13	2,031	19
Jamie McMurray	11	2,030	20
Tony Stewart	16	2,028	22
Kevin Harvick	20	2,027	23
Austin Dillon	14	2,027	23
Kyle Larson	18	2,026	24
Chris Buescher	28	2,016	34

"There have been years, a few years, where I should have won multiple races," Truex said, "but I've never been in a position where I feel like we can go anywhere and win. Right now, I feel like any race track, any weekend, anywhere in the country, we can win."

That he has going for him, and it's a potent advantage, but a championship will require more. Truex, by virtue of his latest victory and third of the season, guarantees a slot in the second round. That is all. The victory has value only for the next two weeks. After that, he's back at square one, albeit with 11 others instead of the 15 now buffeted in his wake.

A late caution flag—caused by a random spin and a fallible pit stop—cost rookie Chase Elliott his first Cup victory. Afterward, his upper lip didn't look nearly as stiff as his words suggested:

"

Expect that nothing is yours until it's over. I mean, that is part of life, man. You are not dumb. We have all watched this stuff long enough [that] we know these races don't go green that long. We see more cautions come out at the end of these races than we do not. That is just part of it. You've got to expect and be able to embrace it and move forward. I feel like we did a good job controlling things that we could control today.

"

Jimmie Johnson, the six-time champion who has been a bit overlooked, gave this one away with a speeding penalty on pit road.

Ignore Johnson at your peril.

Robert Laberge/Getty Images

"Everybody makes a big deal out of I haven't won a championship in a while," Johnson said in a media conference on Friday. "I guess it's been 10 years since my first championship, so there have been only four years I've missed. I don't think that's too bad of a stat."

Johnson last won a championship in 2013. Point well taken, particularly by Truex.

"They lay in the weeds, sandbag," Truex said in the winner's media conference. "Man, the Chevys are struggling. Toyotas are too fast. Got to take something from them. Here they come. That's just how they play the game."

Truex won the first race. He is now the only definite driver among the 12 who will advance to the second round. Not even runner-up Joey Logano, or third-place finisher Elliott, has punched his ticket yet. They all have to avoid disaster in the next two weeks, though the odds now favor them more. Fifteen Chase qualifiers—in a 40-car field—managed to finish in the top 20.

The only exception was, not unexpectedly, the ultimate long shot, Chris Buescher, who motored home two laps down in 28th.

Even as this Chase works its way from 16 drivers, to 12, to eight, to four, the future is murky. Truex knows he'll be around through six races. In spite of his glorious Joliet victory, only slightly less ground separates him from his pursuers. His words on Friday lost no resonance after the race on Sunday:

"

A lot can happen, right? You've got to make it through the elimination rounds. I do think, if we can get to Homestead (Nov. 20), we're a favorite just based on the speed we've had, and if it boils down to just one race, where the fastest car is going to take it home, we'd have a really good shot at it, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.

"

Another Toyota driver, Denny Hamlin, had said ahead of his sixth-place finish: "I don't think you have to be great in the first round. I know winning [Chicagoland] last year gave us almost two weeks to kind of relax and prepare for the next round. That's the advantage you get being great in the first round, but ultimately, I think it's, yeah, don't make mistakes."

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

"I got news for you," Kevin Harvick had said. "There is no plan because you're going to have to deal with something that's going to be unexpected. It's at a different level than it is in the regular season."

Proving this, Harvick spent most of the race a lap down and declined to talk about it.

No one seems looser than the reigning champion, Kyle Busch, who said he is merely trying to duplicate what won it for him last year. It's no master plan. Stuff happens.

"I certainly think you've got a different or a better mindset of being able to race for a championship after accomplishing one because you know what it took to accomplish that, and last year it was not all that stressful," he said.

Tony Stewart, the three-time champion who is retiring, endorsed the "keep it simple, stupid" outlook. He waved off the detail freaks in his media session.

"It's don't make mistakes," he said. "Don't make mistakes. Be solid."

This week Truex rests easily. Most of the other contenders rest comfortably. Those who finished outside the top 10 rest hard, except Buescher. He's still just happy to be there.

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All quotes are taken from NASCAR media, team and manufacturer sources unless otherwise noted.