Penn State vs. Michigan: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
After notching three straight wins in nonconference action, the fourth-ranked Michigan Wolverines will open Big Ten play at home against the Penn State Nittany Lions on Saturday.
Penn State enters the matchup at 2-1, most recently recording a victory over Temple. The Nittany Lions will attempt to break a two-game slide in the series with the Wolverines.
In Week 3, Michigan fell two touchdowns behind Colorado. However, once the defense settled in, Jim Harbaugh's team rattled off 38 of the next 45 points and cruised late to keep its record unblemished.
ABC will broadcast the clash at 3:30 p.m. ET. Michigan opened as a 16.5-point favorite, according to Odds Shark.
Penn State Keys to Victory
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Big Plays to Set Up Scoring Opportunities
During the 2015 meeting, Penn State mustered 16 points on four scoring drives. The offense had a 25-plus-yard gain on three possessions, and the other included 14- and 17-yard pickups.
Otherwise, Michigan allowed a total of 63 yards on 27 snaps. If the Nittany Lions didn't have big plays, they didn't score.
Fortunately for Penn State, the Wolverines were vulnerable to a couple of explosive gains against UCF's and Colorado's spread offenses. Saquon Barkley is the best player they'll have seen, and Trace McSorley has a variety of weapons led by Chris Godwin.
But talented players are just names on paper. Unless the Nittany Lions rip off a handful of big gains, they won't have a chance.
Limit to Field Goals
Michigan has scored 12 touchdowns in 18 red-zone opportunities. The 66.7 percent rate isn't stellar, but it's more than acceptable and almost exactly what the Wolverines recorded last year (66.1).
Penn State allowing opponents to reach the end zone on nine of 13 red-zone tries (69.2 percent), however, is a problem. That ranks 91st out of 128 FBS programs.
In all likelihood, the Nittany Lions will need at least 30 points to win. Holding Michigan to field goals is critical for their upset bid.
Michigan Keys to Victory
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Keep It Simple
Hawaii couldn't stop anything. UCF forced Michigan into a one-dimensional attack, but Wilton Speight and his wide receivers (plus Jake Butt) aced the test. Colorado made the Wolverines work, but they methodically overcame the 14-point deficit.
Although Michigan's offense isn't anything special, it's respectable. And with this defense, that might be all the Wolverines need.
Penn State must address several problems on an inconsistent defense—not stopping Pitt on the ground, allowing 286 passing yards to Temple—so Michigan is bound to find a weakness. Whatever James Franklin's team focuses on stopping, attack with the opposite.
Get 'Em off the Field
The Nittany Lions managed two nonconference victories despite their third-down offense. Against Kent State, Pitt and Temple, Penn State was a meager 9-of-33 on the money down.
Yes, Michigan hasn't faced a daunting schedule by any means, but opponents aren't converting when it matters. The Wolverines are second in the country with a 10.5 percent conversion rate allowed (4-of-38).
Elevated competition will cause that number to rise, but Michigan ranked No. 3 nationally last season anyway. McSorley and Co. need to consistently gain yards on early downs. Otherwise, the Nittany Lions offense will find itself off the field rather quickly.
Penn State Players to Watch
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Saquon Barkley, Running Back
On the opening possession last year, Saquon Barkley sliced through the Michigan defense for 56 yards, tying his longest run of the season. But that was the lone highlight of Barkley's day.
The Wolverines clamped down on the running game, surrendering just 12 yards on Barkley's 14 other carries. He'll be looking for a more impactful outing this week.
Barkley missed a portion of Penn State's victory over Temple due to a leg injury. After returning, he broke off a 55-yard touchdown. As long as Barkley is healthy, he's the best offensive player for PSU.
The Defensive Tackles
In Week 3, Michigan was most successful running outside the tackles because Colorado's Josh Tupou did an excellent job clogging the interior. The Nittany Lions need a similar game.
Though Kevin Givens and Parker Cothren are the starters in the middle, Antoine White and Robert Windsor are regular contributors. So far, they've combined for 30 total stops, including 6.5 for loss.
What they do isn't glamorous, but Penn State's defensive tackles are the most important players opposite Michigan's run-first offense.
Michigan Players to Watch
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De'Veon Smith, Running Back
After exploding for 112 yards in the season opener, Chris Evans earned regular touches. However, De'Veon Smith remains the most-used running back for Michigan.
The senior was limited against Hawaii due to injury, and UCF forced the Wolverines to pass. Smith isn't a dynamic runner anyway, but he'd managed a decent yet uninspiring 65 yards on 16 carries. One well-blocked toss sweep later, Smith had a 42-yard touchdown.
Michigan's running game is still a question mark. Smith probably isn't a perfect answer, but he's the first choice.
Jabrill Peppers, Linebacker/Returner/Running Back
Finally, the versatile standout finished off a punt return. Jabrill Peppers had come close before, but he recorded his first touchdown against Colorado. He was even better defensively.
Peppers registered nine tackles—improving his team-high total to 28—including 3.5 for loss and one sack. But the redshirt sophomore also took snaps on offense for the first time in 2016.
Harbaugh and Co. had little reason to put anything on film against inferior teams, but Peppers offers a unique skill set and demands an inordinate amount of attention. Penn State must be prepared to handle Peppers in all three facets.
What They're Saying
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Penn State
The Nittany Lions are still adjusting to a new offense, but while the unit has offered a few promising signs of development, mistakes remain a common sight for the offense.
"We're taking steps in the right direction to where we want to be," Godwin said, per Rich Scarcella of the Reading Eagle. "In our minds, we really haven't scratched the surface of the type of offense we could be. It's up to us to go back, watch the film and learn from it."
Michigan
Speight won the much-discussed quarterback battle at Michigan, and he's thrown eight touchdowns compared to one interception through three games. Brendan F. Quinn of MLive.com noted wide receiver Amara Darboh said Speight has commanded the offense and inspired trust:
"He's done a great job. He's a tremendous leader. His pocket presence is one thing, but he's also not afraid to step in and make a throw, and take the shot. I think that helps guys believe in him. And he trusts us, his wide receivers, and his tight ends, and the running backs. He doesn't try to do too much or do too little.
"
Prediction
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The slow start against Colorado was probably a blessing in disguise for the Wolverines, who won't make the same mistake when Penn State invades the Big House.
Michigan forces a couple three-and-outs while racing to a 14-3 lead in the first quarter. Speight and Darboh connect for one touchdown, and Smith tallies the other score.
Barkley guides the Nittany Lions to a touchdown during the second frame before Kenny Allen drills a couple of field goals, giving the Wolverines a 20-10 advantage at halftime. Unfortunately for Penn State, it doesn't get any closer.
After alternating punts, Michigan scores 10 straight points to build a 20-point lead. The teams trade scores, but the Wolverines start Big Ten action with a comfortable win.
Prediction: Michigan 37, Penn State 17
All recruiting information via 247Sports. Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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