Daniel Ricciardo's Continued Success Could Cause Problems for Red Bull in 2017
Red Bull have a problem simmering. It is only on the back burner for now, but it could become a full-blown grease fire next year. The problem, which was highlighted by the results of Sunday's Singapore Grand Prix, is that they have two young, very quick drivers—possibly future world champions—under contract for 2017.
Granted, that's a nice problem to have, but, as their friends at Mercedes can tell them, having two top-level drivers in a championship-calibre car is sure to cause some headaches.
Max Verstappen burst into Formula One last year as a 17-year-old rookie with Toro Rosso, earned a mid-season promotion to Red Bull earlier this year and immediately justified the move with his first win at the Spanish Grand Prix.
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Daniel Ricciardo, meanwhile, has been sort of pushed to the background of the Max Verstappen Show. If you are looking for him, though, just take a quick glance at the drivers' standings—he is 50 points ahead of the Dutch teenager (and more importantly, he has outscored Verstappen 143 to 116 since they became team-mates).
In Singapore, Ricciardo turned in yet another brilliant drive, nearly stealing victory from Mercedes' Nico Rosberg on the final lap. It was the Aussie's third second-place finish in the last four races, as he fights to keep his head above the rising orange tide.
"It's all about Max," Red Bull adviser Helmut Marko said in a recent interview with the official F1 website.
Indeed, Verstappen has incredible potential—but so does Ricciardo. We have yet to see the Aussie in a car that can challenge regularly for race wins, though he did take three victories back in 2014 and should have won from pole this year in Monaco.
So, what will happen if Red Bull produce a car capable of fighting for the title next season?
Both Ricciardo and Verstappen will feel entitled to be the team's No. 1 driver—Ricciardo because he is older and more experienced, with better results; Verstappen because he is a prodigy who was already drawing comparisons to the likes of Ayrton Senna before he started his first grand prix. That is where the headaches come in.
Red Bull have consistently produced one of the best cars on the grid, but, since the switch to hybrid V6 engines, even the best chassis has been unable to bridge the gulf created by Mercedes' superior power units.
With significant changes to the aerodynamic regulations coming for 2017, though, expect Red Bull to be right back at the front, possibly in a close duel with Mercedes and Ferrari.
In that case, Red Bull will have a difficult choice to make. Mercedes are so far ahead of the rest of the grid that they have allowed Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton to race each other freely for the last three years, confident that a few friendly fire incidents will not jeopardise their championships.
If Red Bull find themselves in a tight battle next year (or a subsequent year), will they feel comfortable doing the same, allowing Verstappen and Ricciardo to fight it out on track and hope for the best?
It worked for the team back in 2010, when Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber battled the McLarens and Ferraris all year before Vettel edged Fernando Alonso, Webber and Hamilton for the title at the final race. Vettel then proceeded to dominate the next three years, assisting Webber with his decision to retire from F1.
A more interesting and relevant case study, though, comes from the 2007 season. McLaren partnered their own rookie prodigy, Hamilton, with Alonso, who was a reigning double world champion. The two were allowed to race all season, and Kimi Raikkonen ultimately beat both of them by a single point for the title.
Had McLaren decided on a No. 1 driver and focused on getting him the best results possible, Hamilton or Alonso might have been the champ that season. In fact, the very next year, with Hamilton as the clear No. 1, he claimed the title by one point from Felipe Massa.
The problem for Red Bull is that neither Verstappen nor Ricciardo are suited to be No. 2.
Back in June, after losing potential wins in Spain and Monaco through no fault of his own, Ricciardo said, per Sky Sports' James Galloway:
"Part of the frustrating thing is that I really do believe, and I've believed it for a long time—I don't want to say it because it's arrogant—but I believe a lot in my ability, let's just say that. And I should be getting more rewarded.
I'm 27 very soon and I don't even have anything close to a world title and I believe I should have something like that very soon.
"
Those are not the words of a driver ready to step aside and support his team-mate's title push.
Meanwhile, Red Bull did not rush Verstappen into F1 and then promote him after the fourth race of his second year for him to play second fiddle.
This will be Red Bull's third year in a row without a title, and it is doubtful the team brass cares who wins the championship next year—as long as it's one of their drivers. From a sponsorship perspective, Ricciardo's charm is as valuable as the controversy Verstappen has courted. Anything that draws eyeballs.
Maybe Red Bull will be able to let the season unfold without any team orders and one driver will naturally emerge as the No. 1 (or maybe they won't be in the title mix at all). But if the team is forced into making a decision and promoting one driver at the expense of the other, they must be very careful.
Ricciardo has already been linked with a possible Ferrari move, as the Australian told Autosport, and if any team principal told you that, given the chance, they were not interested in signing Verstappen, well, they are either lying or they should be fired immediately.
The second either Red Bull driver gets a hint that their team-mate is going to be favoured by the team, you can bet they will be reaching for the ripcord and looking for a soft landing at another outfit. And the only thing worse for Red Bull than getting beaten again by Hamilton and the Mercs would be for one of their drivers to jump to another team and win a championship there.
If everything goes to plan at Red Bull's Milton Keynes base for the rest of this year and the offseason, Marko and team principal Christian Horner will be starring in a delicate high-wire act in the paddock next year, managing the expectations of two stars.
It won't be easy, but it can be done. Maybe they can ask Toto Wolff, Paddy Lowe and Niki Lauda—the Mercedes braintrust—for some advice.
Matthew Walthert is an F1 columnist for Bleacher Report UK. He has also written for VICE, FourFourTwo and the Globe and Mail. Follow him on Twitter:
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