Alabama vs. Ole Miss: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
When is a revenge game not a revenge game?
There’s really no such thing, but that’s the way the University of Alabama football team is trying to approach Saturday’s trip to No. 19 Ole Miss.
Two years ago, Ole Miss fans stormed the field to celebrate a 23-17 victory. Last season, the Rebels took advantage of five turnovers and some odd plays that went their way en route to a 43-37 outcome.
If No. 1 Alabama has wallpapered the locker room with inspirational posters from those two setbacks, no one’s admitting it. After notching two victories but feeling his team hadn’t played particularly well in either game, head coach Nick Saban was unusually calm and straightforward during his Monday press conference.
“Emotion doesn't last in the game,” he said, which quickly became the theme along with attention to detail.
Besides, revenge obviously didn’t work last year.
“It's not something that I usually use as a motivating factor,” Saban said. “To say that it's not a factor, I'm not sure I'm a psychiatrist enough to know the answer to that question. What I would rather focus on with our players is not the emotion of the game.
“There will be plenty of emotion for the game, I think, being an SEC game, being a division game, being a team that we've struggled against the last couple of years.”
This is the second of five tough tests that the Crimson Tide will face away from Bryant-Denny Stadium this season, the first having been the neutral-site opener against No. 20 USC, a 52-6 victory at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
Down the road, Alabama will also visit Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU. With the Razorbacks having upset TCU, all five opponents might be ranked when facing Alabama.
On the flip side, with Georgia visiting next week and Ole Miss already having a loss, this is the game that will set the tone for the rest of the Rebels’ season. While the fans always come out in force for Alabama anyway, it’s the first big game in renovated Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
One thing that’s different from a year ago is that Ole Miss has already been in a big game, losing 45-34 to Florida State in Orlando. Since the Seminoles play a similar defensive scheme to the Crimson Tide's, Alabama already has a pretty good idea of how the Rebels will try to attack.
But rain is also in the forecast, which could alter both sides’ game plans.
Date: Saturday, Sept. 17
Time: 2:30 p.m. CT
Place: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
TV: CBS
Radio: Crimson Tide Sports Network, Ole Miss IMG Network, Westwood One Radio, Sirius 112/84, XM 191/84
Spread: Alabama is an 11-point favorite, according to Odds Shark.
Alabama's Keys to Victory
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Win the pivotal matchup
A lot of attention will be given to the defensive front sevens and whether the Ole Miss “Landsharks” can equal Alabama’s pressure from its fast-twitch front seven, but the real matchup is between the Rebels offensive line and the Crimson Tide defense.
It’s a pure weakness vs. strength pairing that could easily decide the game.
Alabama basically ran over the USC line two weeks ago, and the Trojans’ front five is thought to be better than this group that really struggled against Florida State.
“They’re definitely explosive this year, high-powered offense. But that’s nothing new for us,” Alabama senior defensive end Jonathan Allen said.
As for getting another shot at quarterback Chad Kelly, Allen said: “We love quarterbacks who take risks, that gives us more opportunities for us. We’re just going to go out there, do our job, play a good game defensively.”
Get the ground game going
Except for a couple of big runs against USC, the Crimson Tide’s running game really hasn’t done much, and Alabama’s offense accounted for nearly all of the 12 penalties during last week’s game against Western Kentucky.
Look for Alabama’s line to play better after center Bradley Bozeman called that performance “embarrassing.” Granted, the Hilltoppers loaded the box, but the Crimson Tide should have averaged more than 3.2 yards per carry.
“If we block them right, we should have four- and five-yard runs, if we get movement, if have the right hand placement, if we step the right way,” Saban said. “Those are all the things, to me, that I’m talking about that we need to do better.”
Ole Miss likes to go with a 4-2-5 formation that’s smaller beyond the line and on the edges. Alabama hasn’t done much running behind left tackle Cam Robinson yet, so that’s something to keep an eye on. Even though the Crimson Tide attempted 59 passes in last year’s game, the offense tallied 215 rushing yards, up from 168 in 2014.
Don’t get into a shootout
Alabama fell into this trap in 2015, although it felt a lot of it was its own doing. After giving up two touchdowns in the second quarter as part of a turnover-filled first half, it was down 17-3 and had to play catch-up.
Quarterback Jake Coker nearly pulled it off while finally securing the starting job.
But with Ole Miss able to take advantage of a couple of unusual opportunities, including the deflected ball that resulted in Quincy Adeboyejo’s 66-yard touchdown (after a botched snap as well), Alabama was unable to overcome the deficit and lost 43-37.
“I feel like we put too much pressure, too much emphasis on revenge and all that stuff,” Allen said.
This time, it’ll be interesting to see how Ole Miss reacts emotionally. Two weeks ago, it was up on Florida State 28-6 late in the second quarter only to see the Seminoles storm back and win.
Ole Miss' Keys to Victory
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Run at least a little
Probably the best way to take pressure off Kelly is to establish some sort of running game, at least to keep the defense honest, but that won’t be easy for the Rebels.
They had just 67 yards on 25 carries against Florida State while being on the wrong end in time of possession (42 minutes and 39 seconds to 17:21). Alabama has given up just 87 total rushing yards in its first two games, and during last year’s meeting, the Rebels averaged just 2.9 yards per carry.
Junior running back Jordan Wilkins (ruled academically ineligible) and redshirt freshman Eric Swinney (knee) are both lost for the season.
Cornerback Kendarius Webster (knee) is also done for 2016, and wide receiver D.K. Metcalf broke his foot during last week’s 38-13 victory over Wofford.
Adapt as the game progresses
Although Kelly has a reputation for making something out of nothing, once you get him out of his comfort zone, he’s prone to making mistakes.
Granted, he threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns against Florida State, but he also had three interceptions and a fumble. As Florida State’s defense started taking things away from the Ole Miss offense, the Rebels were oustcored in the second half 32-6.
"It's gonna be pretty tough,” Alabama safety Ronnie Harrison said. “They've got a RPO [run-pass option] off almost every run they have, so we just gotta play with our eyes and be focused and know our assignments."
Get turnovers/breaks
You can’t game-plan five turnovers or plays like the 66-yard touchdown in last year’s game, but Ole Miss still needed every one of those breaks to beat Alabama.
"You have to be calculated with your shots and be smart with them,” Ole Miss coach Hugh Freeze said during his Monday press conference. “One thing I'll say is he knows he shouldn't have done that, but in his thinking he knew that Laquon [Treadwell] was there and that he'd have a chance to fight for it—and he knew Laquon would. So that's Chad's reasoning. That has a little merit.
“I'm not crazy about wildly doing that again, but you need a few breaks when you're playing great teams.”
The 2014 meeting was when Bozeman first stepped in at center for an injured Ryan Kelly, and when Alabama running back Kenyan Drake suffered his horrific broken leg. That and the fans storming the field will be in the back of the older Crimson Tide players' minds.
Alabama Players to Watch
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Quarterback Jalen Hurts
Alabama hasn’t made any sort of announcement about who will start at quarterback, but Hurts has taken the majority of snaps this season.
Plus, going with someone different didn’t work very well last year when Cooper Bateman made his only career start.
Statistically, Hurts’ 157.9 passer-efficiency rating is 33rd in the nation, a fraction better than Kelly’s 155.7, but the top concern with him is just overall execution and doing all the little things that become familiar with experience.
“They're similar,” Freeze told reporters about Hurts and Florida State freshman quarterback Deondre Francois. “Big arms. Athletic. Can give you problems, for sure. [Hurts] has been extremely accurate on vertical throws downfield, and they have receivers who can go get it.”
This will be Hurts' first true road game and dealing with an overbearing crowd, but it’ll be interesting to see if Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin opts to try to get the Ole Miss defense on its heels from the start or if Alabama primarily stresses ball control and keeping Kelly on the bench.
Wide receiver ArDarius Stewart
Although sophomore Calvin Ridley gets more attention, Stewart actually leads the Crimson Tide in receiving yards with 203, and it would be by a lot more if not for a holding penalty nullifying a 65-yard gain last week.
With Webster out, the Rebels’ cornerbacks are 5’8” senior Carlos Davis, redshirt freshman Jalen Julius and senior Tony Bridges, with freshman Myles Hartsfield as the rover.
Between wide receivers Ridley, Stewart and Robert Foster, and tight end O.J. Howard, expect at least one of them—maybe two—to put up some big numbers.
Among them, Stewart seems to play the most with an edge. Last year, he had eight receptions for 73 yards and a touchdown against the Rebels.
“What makes ArDarius so good is that he not only catches the ball—he has to catch it and make great plays—but he blocks every down,” Howard said. “He plays hard every play.”
Cornerback Anthony Averett
Even without Metcalf, the Rebels’ top four wide receivers are all 6’1” and taller, which isn’t so much of an issue—except against Averett. The junior is part of Alabama’s nickel package, which it figures to be in a lot on Saturday.
Two weeks ago, USC went after him, as the 6’0” reserve ended up leading the Crimson Tide defense in tackles with eight but got beat on a 36-yard completion to Darreus Rogers and was also called for a pass-interference penalty.
“When you start as a first-year corner out there, it’s definitely pretty scary,” sophomore cornerback Marlon Humphrey said. “It’s kind of how I was last year, you play a little timid. Now that he got his feet wet, he’s going to be ready to go.”
Ole Miss will certainly test him, especially when he’s in front of the Rebels’ bench (which can influence an official to throw a flag), but Averett is also one of fastest players on the Crimson Tide.
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Ole Miss Players to Watch
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Quarterback Chad Kelly
The senior leads the SEC in touchdown passes (seven) and points responsible for (42), but his three interceptions against Florida State have overshadowed his 532 total passing yards.
Without Treadwell, so far his go-to receiver has been tight end Evan Engram, who has 11 catches for 164 yards. Alabama has the necessary speed to keep up with him. Next up on the list is Damore’ea Stringfellow, with 81 yards and one touchdown on eight receptions.
“Treadwell's gone, of course, but they have a lot of great, young receivers, like the freshman A.J. Brown,” safety Ronnie Harrison said. “Chad Kelly, he always can make plays with his feet, he can extend plays, he's a high competitor, so we just have to do a good job trying to contain him."
Tight end Evan Engram
This is a showcase game for Engram, who has openly said that he wants to win the Mackey Award as college football’s best tight end, and his biggest competition may be Howard.
He has the edge in receiving yards so far, as Howard has five receptions for 68 yards and dropped a pass in the end zone last week.
But the 2015 Wuerffel Trophy winner for community service, athletic and academic excellence also has to compensate for Howard’s improved blocking, which is something that the Crimson Tide tight end worked hard on during the offseason.
“He's a good guy,” Alabama safety Eddie Jackson said about Engram. “They put him at receiver. He also makes plays down the field. He kind of reminds me of O.J. Just not the same size. He's a guy who can make plays down the field.”
Safety Tony Conner
The heart of the Ole Miss defense, Conner had to hold off on the NFL until 2017 after suffering a torn meniscus that sidelined him for seven games last season. He didn’t appear to be at full strength against Florida State and had the knee drained of fluid after the game.
Conner looked better against Wofford, but he still only has four tackles this season.
“He was a little rusty the first week,” Freeze said. “Seemed to be a little more himself last week. But again, he didn't play a lot of snaps last week against the stuff we were facing. This will be a really good test for him and a measuring stick to see where we are."
This is Conner’s fourth year playing the position Ole Miss calls "Huskie," the hybrid safety spot similar to a strong safety, but he often lines up closer to the line of scrimmage like a linebacker.
What They’re Saying
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Freeze on this week’s challenge: "To play the No. 1 team in the country at our home, it is an opportunity that I relish. I love the attitude we had yesterday and we are excited about this great challenge. They are an outstanding football team, they are a little better defensively, believe it or not, than what they have been. They seem faster and they are very difficult to create any drives on. I think they have given up about 40 yards rushing a game, a little over 200 total offense against two pretty good offensive teams so far. Western Kentucky does a good job and they did a really good job against them and of course, USC. It is very difficult to sustain drives on and offensively they are an explosive offense with the vertical passing game. Of course, their run game is always one that you have to worry about stopping. It is a typical Alabama football team that is going to be in the hunt for the SEC Championship and the NCAA Championship if that comes to creation. We get an opportunity to play them at home and we are eager for that chance."
Saban on Kelly: "He's an outstanding passer. He's very accurate with the ball. He knows this offense very well. He has the ability to extend plays. He's a really good competitor and he's sort of a playmaker-type guy. And the combination of those things make him very effective in terms of what they do. It's going to be important that we do a good job pushing the pocket on him, not letting him scramble around, but at the same time affecting him where he can't be as good a passer as he's capable of. We do that with good coverage as well as good pass coverage."
Howard on Saban’s reaction to the five turnovers against Ole Miss last year: “He was not happy, man. The turnover ratio…the team with the most turnovers almost always loses. You’ve got to eliminate those. Coach wasn’t happy about that last year. Those five turnovers are not acceptable. We’ve got to take care of the ball.”
Prediction
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You know that Alabama’s been thinking about the last two losses, and it's never had three straight defeats to the same opponent since Saban arrived in 2007.
Besides, Kiffin’s probably sick of losing to his brother Chris, the Rebels’ recruiting coordinator and defensive line coach, who has had bragging rights the last two years despite Lane’s championship rings (two SEC, one NCAA).
Look for Alabama to play its best game of the young season, take control of the SEC West and finally get the Ole Miss monkey off its back.
Prediction: Alabama 30, Ole Miss 17
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.
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