Week 3 Will Be Separation Saturday for the SEC West
Week 1 was historic, Week 2 was a letdown, and Week 3 is when things will get cranked into overdrive in the SEC West.
When I sat down in Hoover, Alabama, in July to predict the order of finish in the SEC West, it became apparent that Week 3 would be Separation Saturday.
My picks for first and second place—Alabama and Ole Miss, respectively—square off in Oxford, Mississippi; third and fourth place—Auburn and Texas A&M—will battle on The Plains; fifth and sixth place—LSU and Mississippi State—will tangle on the Bayou.
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Even if your preseason picks aren't in that order or included 2-0 Arkansas, there's no escaping just how massive this weekend is for what's commonly regarded as the toughest division in college football.
It will define the 2016 landscape of the division.
For Alabama, offensive issues and a highly publicized sideline outburst by head coach Nick Saban directed at offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin in the waning moments of Saturday's sloppy win over Western Kentucky have added even more spice to its game versus the Rebels—a team that has toppled the Crimson Tide in each of the last two seasons.
"When you're arrogant, it makes you complacent and it creates a blatant disregard for doing things right," Saban said in quotes emailed by Alabama. "If we don't start doing things right, we're not going to have the kind of success that we're capable of. So, we'll certainly focus on that. It's all my responsibility. We need to get the job done better. I'm almost embarrassed that I didn't do a better job for my team."
Behind quarterback Chad Kelly, head coach Hugh Freeze and a medium-sized village of talented wide receivers, Ole Miss is fully capable of dictating its wide-open style in this matchup and forcing a rather inexperienced Crimson Tide offense into a shootout.
How will quarterback Jalen Hurts handle that?
How will Kiffin handle it?
How will Saban handle it?
It's clearly a concern, and Saban probably didn't anticipate heading into the biggest game on the schedule with offensive questions still lingering.
At Auburn, the battle between Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn and Aggies frontman Kevin Sumlin will determine who's on the second-hottest seat in the conference behind LSU's Les Miles and whose team is the primary contender to the Crimson Tide and Rebels—both of whom have made New Year's Six bowl games in each of the last two seasons.
Will the Tigers build off of their offensive success against Arkansas State, a game in which they gained 706 yards, rushed for 462 and let sophomore Sean White take the snaps as the unquestioned No. 1 quarterback?
Will Texas A&M keep its typical early-season momentum going into the SEC slate on the road in a hostile environment with team success and program trajectory at stake?
"We know they are talented, and we know that they have good pass-rushers and a transfer quarterback that is a very good quarterback," Malzahn said in quotes emailed by the school. "They are a good team, and it’s going to be a tough game."
If you want ultra-athletic defenses, dynamic offenses and enough coaching intrigue to fill a stadium, this game—which the road team has won every year since Texas A&M joined the SEC in 2012—has it.
At LSU, the conference opener is about as big as any game Miles has coached since the 2012 BCS National Championship Game following the 2011 season.
After dropping the opener to Wisconsin and pulling the plug on starting quarterback Brandon Harris after a sluggish start against Jacksonville State of the FCS, Miles will face a ferocious Mississippi State pass rush that features A.J. Jefferson and Johnathan Calvin, with former Purdue backup Danny Etling likely making his first career start at quarterback for LSU.
Etling provided a spark in Week 2 versus the Gamecocks, but it's not like a 6-of-14 performance for 100 passing yards, one touchdown and one pick suddenly makes LSU's offense dangerous.
"Yeah, that's not enough," Miles said after the game, according to the official LSU athletics website. "What you're going to want to do is you're not going to want to throw that deep ball out there in hope that a guy—basically you want to hit a checkdown. You have to realize that you don't win the job with that throw, you really injure your opportunities."
Etling provides hope, for sure. That's very important.
But let's hold off labeling him as Miles' savior until he shows he can win a critical matchup when the running game gets held in check—which is a much bigger problem than the quarterback position at LSU anyway. After all, Etling was 0-of-6 with an interception in the second half versus Jacksonville State.
The three games will determine which programs have uphill battles in the SEC, which coaches will have pressure for the rest of the season and which teams are the true contenders.
The SEC rolled out a new catchphrase at media days: "It just means more."
Week 3 means everything in terms of defining the landscape of the 2016 SEC West.
Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics courtesy of CFBStats unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Odds provided by Odds Shark.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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