Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Odds, Football Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistSeptember 6, 2016

Notre Dame quarterback DeShone Kizer (14) throws against Texas during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Sunday, Sept. 4, 2016, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
Eric Gay/Associated Press

Notre Dame is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 against the spread in its last six games at home, while Nevada is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road. Trends collide when the Irish host the Wolf Pack on Saturday afternoon in South Bend.

Point spread: The Fighting Irish opened as 26-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.0-25.2 Fighting Irish (college football picks on every game)

Why the Nevada Wolf Pack can cover the spread

The Pack opened this season with a 30-27 overtime victory over Cal-Poly last Friday. Nevada led 21-7 after one quarter and 24-10 after three, but they allowed the Mustangs to tie the score with a touchdown with a minute to go. However, they won it on James Butler's five-yard scoring run in the bottom of the first OT period.

On the night, Butler ran 21 times for 123 yards, while senior quarterback Tyler Stewart connected on 17 of 23 passes for 189 yards and two more scores.

The Wolf Pack returned 15 starters this season from a team that went 7-6 last year, including 10 on offense, led by the entire offensive line. Plus, they've got a senior quarterback and a guy who ran for 1,300 yards last year. So they have the capability of keeping this one close by putting points on the board.

Why the Notre Dame Fighting Irish can cover the spread

The Irish began their season by falling to a fired-up Texas squad 50-47 in overtime last Sunday. Notre Dame trailed the Longhorns 31-14 early in the third quarter, rallied to take a 35-31 lead, fell down again but tied the game at 37 on a blocked extra-point return with three minutes to go. The Irish then took a 47-44 lead in the second OT but lost when an exhausted defense gave up a six-yard scoring run to Tyrone Swoopes on the following possession.

On the night, Notre Dame cranked out 444 yards of offense, including 206 on the ground. And quarterback DeShone Kizer threw for 215 yards and five touchdowns, without an interception, which probably means he'll take over as the main guy at that position for the Irish.

Notre Dame only returned nine starters from a 10-3 team of a season ago, but that figure is a bit misleading considering the many players who saw field time last year filling in for fallen starters.

Smart pick

The Irish are likely to win this game; it's just a matter of by how much. But while Notre Dame went just 2-4 ATS last year as a double-digit favorite, Nevada went 2-1-1 ATS last year as a double-digit dog. Also, the spread on this game is probably inflated by at least four or five points, perhaps more. If the Wolf Pack can put up 20 points Saturday, they stand an excellent chance of covering.

Betting trends

Notre Dame is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games at home.

Notre Dame is 4-0 ATS in its last four games against the Mountain West.

Nevada is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road.

All college football betting lines and point spreads data courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and Odds Shark YouTube for picks and analysis, or download the free odds tracker app.

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