
Fantasy Football Week 4 Review
It was the week of the wideout in fantasy football, as three receivers topped the leaderboard among skill players in fantasy points in ESPN leagues for Week 4.
In particular, it was the "Week of Julio," as the Atlanta Falcons' superstar enjoyed a historic 300-yard outing that would rank 15th in total receiving yardage for the current NFL season. It was also the sixth-most yards in a single game in league history, per Pro Football Reference.
We play fantasy football to witness such awesome outings, as this memorable performance will live in the record books forever. Jones set the all-time franchise receiving mark, and he also probably made some guy named Mark get off his couch a record eight times on Sunday afternoon in celebration.
With another busy slate of NFL action in the books, let's dive into the week that was with a series of revealing breakdowns. That means the top performances, notable injuries and crucial market strategies to consider in the weeks ahead.
Join us in analyzing Week 4 in fantasy football, and feel free to add your thoughts and roster questions in the comments below.
Week 4's Statistical Stars
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Each week, a collection of statistical superstars shift the outcomes in fantasy football. In this section, we highlight (at least) the three most influential performances at each position.
So it's clear to readers, when we reference a player's positional ranking in fantasy points, we're using ESPN's scoring leaderboard as the source.
Star Signal-Callers
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Off to a hot start with a Falcons offense leading the league in yards and points per game, Ryan produced 503 passing yards and four scores on Sunday afternoon in an explosive win over the rival Carolina Panthers. To put Ryan's stellar start in its proper historic context, ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft found that only eight players and five quarterbacks since 1960 have produced more fantasy points through the first four games of a season. A rough stretch of upcoming road games in Denver and Seattle will really test Ryan's temperature, but it's becoming increasingly difficult to discount his and the team's torrid numbers.
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben rebounded quite nicely from Week 3's quiet showing in South Philly, as he delivered five touchdowns in a drubbing of the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night. A fun measure of his efficiency: Roethlisberger had as many incompletions as touchdowns in the win. The New York Jets visit in Week 5, but they're no longer the stingy pass defense of years prior. They've surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing arms on the season in ESPN leagues.
Honorable Mention
The Jacksonville Jaguars' Blake Bortles leaves London with a win over the Indianapolis Colts and three total touchdowns. Bortles is tied with the New Orleans Saints' Drew Brees for the league lead with 42 passing scores since the start of last season.
The Oakland Raiders' Derek Carr was clutch in a comeback win in Baltimore on Sunday, as he's now fourth in the league in passing scores. He could thrive in Week 5 as the team hosts the San Diego Chargers.
It was reassuring to see the Seattle Seahawks' Russell Wilson produce a stellar showing after an injury scare last week. He remains a trusted QB1 asset heading into the team's bye.
Top Tailbacks
DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans
So it seems Chip Kelly's offense in Philadelphia was a major issue with Murray's poor 2015, as he's thriving in a more traditional offense with Tennessee this season. After a two-touchdown showing in Week 4 that earned him the top tailback score in ESPN leagues, Murray is among the leaders in fantasy points at the position in all scoring formats thanks to elite production in the receiving and rushing phases. Murray is on pace for nearly 2,000 total yards due to his involvement in the Titans' passing attack. Soft matchups against the Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns and Colts appear inviting in the coming weeks.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
If Murray's elite 2014 season for the Cowboys was uniquely volume-driven, Elliott is on pace for a similarly astounding workload. He's the lone back in the NFL with at least 20 carries in each of the first four games, putting him on pace for 376 attempts by season's end. Elliott thrived against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4—he now has a touchdown in three of four games and leads the league in rushing. If Elliott earns more work in the passing phase, he could challenge for the top spot among fantasy tailbacks as a rookie.
Honorable Mention
The Browns' Isaiah Crowell is second in the NFL in rushing and doing so with 34 fewer carries than Elliott, averaging an awesome 6.34 yards per carry. Players on winless teams aren't always enticing, but Crowell is Cleveland's main goal-line weapon and big-play threat on the ground. We buy his stock as a borderline RB1 asset.
After a quiet start to the season, the Washington Redskins' Matt Jones has become a bankable fantasy commodity, putting up at least 79 yards from scrimmage or a score in each of the past three outings. Similar to Crowell, a valuable share of goal-line duties drives value for Jones going forward.
It was reassuring for Le'Veon Bell's patient investors to see him tally 178 yards from scrimmage upon his return to the field with the Steelers on Sunday night. He's the top asset at the position going forward as far as we see it.
Winning Wideouts
Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
Remember that amazing game by Cloyce Box of the Detroit Lions back in December 1950? No? Box netted 302 receiving yards against the Baltimore Colts, only two more than Jones produced on Sunday afternoon against the Panthers. We mentioned Jones' 300-yard effort was No. 6 all-time. So can we forgive him for his one catch outing in Week 3? We can. We can also appreciate this legendary performance and hope he can produce in two tough upcoming games in Denver and Seattle. We've learned our lesson, though—Jones is clearly a must-start superstar no matter the opponent.
Michael Crabtree, Oakland Raiders
With three touchdowns in Week 4 and at least nine fantasy points in each game so far this season in ESPN leagues, Crabtree is again making a bid as one of the best and most bankable WR2 assets in the game. A matchup with the Chargers could prove productive next week, as he scored in both meetings against the Bolts last season.
Honorable Mention
The Cincinnati Bengals' A.J. Green had an awesome showing this past Thursday night against the Miami Dolphins. He'll challenge for the yardage and target crowns this season.
The Los Angeles Rams' Brian Quick was a trendy sleeper in 2015, but he wasn't utilized well by the team. This year, he's enjoying a post-hype breakout with three touchdowns over the past two weeks. We're not sure we buy the big-play driven success, but he's certainly worth rostering given he's available in over 99 percent of ESPN leagues at the moment.
The Houston Texans' Will Fuller is on pace for one of the better rookie seasons ever, so upside shares in daily fantasy are appealing given reasonable pricing.
The Arizona Cardinals' John Brown, meanwhile, has revived his fantasy stock with 214 yards over his past two games.
Top Tight Ends
Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins
Reed finally delivered touchdown production in Week 4 with a two-score outing that saw him haul in 9 of his 10 targets. That sound you hear is the buy-low window closing.
Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers
It's a weekly occurrence to see Olsen near the top of the leaderboard at this often-shallow position. He's as steady as they come, and he should thrive with two soft matchups coming up.
Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks
He's back, y'all. While Graham might never reach the touchdown rates he enjoyed with the Saints, he's delivered back-to-back 100-yard outings and is again a TE1 asset.
Honorable Mention
We hyped the Chargers' Hunter Henry and he delivered a strong showing on Sunday. He's a must-start asset as long as Antonio Gates is sidelined.
Decisive Defenses
The Denver Broncos' elite defense proved they travel well, as they suffocated the Tampa Bay Buccaneer's offense on the road on Sunday afternoon. With an elite pass rush and a ball-hawking secondary, the Broncos are the rare weekly starter at this matchup-driven position.
It was also nice to the see the Los Angeles Rams shine in Arizona on Sunday, as they appear to be a nice streaming option when they host the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. Conversely, the Bills are a nice streaming pickup as well. This should be one of the lowest implied point totals of the upcoming slate.
Fantasy Flops in Week 4
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Not all players can deliver value every game, and some downright leave us in the lurch. The following crop of disappointing performances felled fantasy teams this week.
(For clarity, we don't count injuries in this section, as we don't blame players for getting hurt in this brutally physical sport. We instead focus on poor performance and frustrating fantasy results.)
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
In a supposedly choice matchup against a depleted Chicago Bears defense, Stafford underwhelmed in Week 4 with just 213 yards, two picks and no touchdowns. The Philadelphia Eagles come to Detroit fresh off their bye next week, and the Birds have allowed the fewest points per drive in the league so far. We might want to find stronger streaming options for our fantasy squads.
Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
With six turnovers and only one score over the past two weeks, Palmer has left his investors hurting recently. The yardage is still there, as he's on pace for 4,600 yards, but the lack of touchdowns and uptick in turnovers is troubling. We're interested in Palmer against the snap-happy San Francisco 49ers in Week 5—then again, it's clear he's entered the streaming tier at the position. He's no longer a surefire starter each week.
LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots
Blount enjoyed volume-driven success in the first three weeks of 2016—one of just three backs to net at least 20 carries per game over that span—but he was stymied in Week 4 against the Bills. We're back on the Blount wagon for a matchup with the Cleveland Browns next week, but his workload could take a dip going forward with Tom Brady's impending return.
Matt Forte, New York Jets
We know the Seattle Seahawks possess a stout rush defense, but it's telling to see Forte average just 2 yards per carry in Week 4. With Bilal Powell cutting into his receiving share and tough setups against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Arizona Cardinals in the next two weeks, selling on Forte could prove profitable if you can net a worthy return. (Forte was injured in the Seattle game, but he still saw a dominant workload, thus he is included on this list. We discuss his injury in greater detail later in this series of slides.)
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
Even in a game that saw signal-caller Brian Hoyer produce 302 yards and multiple scores, Jeffery was ultimately disappointing. We delve deeper into his stock in a few slides.
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints
With 27 fantasy points in Week 1 in ESPN leagues and just 10 since, Cooks has been a no-show for several weeks now. Hopefully the bye helps the Saints' passing game restore some balance, although we don't love upcoming meetings with the Chiefs, Seahawks and Broncos in the next stretch of games. Cooks is a vexing fantasy asset akin to DeSean Jackson and his boom-or-bust nature.
Golden Tate, Detroit Lions
We were tempted to include the Patriots' Julian Edelman in this mix, but the entire team's passing game was limited with a raw rookie behind center this week, thus he's forgiven for the poor performance. As for Tate, his glaringly weak start to the season continued in Chicago in an embarrassing 1-yard showing. We also discuss Tate's stock in greater detail in the coming slides.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans
We know Walker was ailing a bit in Week 4 after missing Week 3 with a hamstring injury, but he played a full set of snaps and still caught just 2 of 8 targets. This Titans passing game is proving avoidable for fantasy purposes. Walker is, however, still a TE1 asset given his strong market share.
Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots
While we afford Edelman some slack, we know he's due to bounce back with a high-volume role once Brady is behind center. As for Gronk, it's a bit more disconcerting to see him limited in routes and targets once again—his first month has been a no-show for his investors. We examine his stock in detail a bit later.
Waiver Watch for Week 4: Top Pickups to Consider
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The following assets are available in at least 40 percent of ESPN leagues and capable of building on strong Week 4 performances.
Baltimore Backs
We like the immediate value of Ravens tailback Terrance West, as he tallied the team's first 100-yard effort of the season in Week 4. For more upside, we suggest stashing Kenneth Dixon. His superior receiving skills could prove ideal for Marc Trestman's offense. Justin Forsett was a healthy scratch—he has become expendable in fantasy formats.
Wendell Smallwood, Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles could employ a committee backfield going forward. But if Ryan Mathews can’t stay healthy, Smallwood would earn the majority share of early-down touches. Stash this rookie for now—his starting value could emerge in the coming weeks.
Bilal Powell, New York Jets
With Matt Forte injuring his ankle in Week 4, Powell is worth a speculative add, especially in point-per-reception formats given his soft hands and deft route skills.
Robert Woods, Buffalo Bills
It's looking quite possible we don't see Sammy Watkins again this season. If so, Woods could enjoy a target-heavy campaign. He's netted a team-high 18 targets over the past two weeks.
Quincy Enunwa, New York Jets
In a similar spot as Woods, Enunwa could thrive via increased target share while Eric Decker misses time with a serious shoulder injury. Both players are best valued in point-per-reception formats.
Chris Hogan, New England Patriots
Owned in just over 30 percent of ESPN leagues at press time, Hogan is due for a sizable uptick in targets with Tom Brady returning to the field. Add him before a big play against the Cleveland Browns awakens the market.
Hunter Henry, San Diego Chargers
Henry has been a stud with Antonio Gates sidelined, running plenty of routes with just a handful of blocking snaps mixed in. If Gates misses more time, Henry is a top-10 option at the tight end position.
Impact Injuries from Week 4
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With so much speed and physical play, injuries are commonplace in the NFL. In this slide, we discuss notable impact injuries around the league.
2015 MVP Cam Newton left Week 4's loss to the Atlanta Falcons with a potential concussion after taking a jarring hit at the goal line. Newton is now in the league's concussion protocol, along with the Arizona Cardinals' Carson Palmer, according to ESPN (via ABC News).
The Denver Broncos' Trevor Siemian suffered a sprained AC joint in his non-throwing shoulder, per USA Today's Tom Pelissero. Rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch was competent in his place, but we'll wait for more information before assessing this scenario.
The New York Jets' Matt Forte was pulled from Sunday's game and examined for X-Rays, per Ralph Vacchiano of SNY.tv. We don't have much information on him at the moment, but watch this scenario closely. It makes Bilal Powell an intriguing asset if Forte misses time.
According to ESPN's Dan Graziano, Seattle Seahawks receiver Doug Baldwin revealed some telling news about teammate Tyler Lockett, saying he's been playing through a PCL tear in his knee. The team has a bye coming up, but this helps explain Lockett's quiet campaign so far. We'll want more information, but we don't blame you for moving on from this disappointing commodity.
Speaking of moving on, it's looking safer to let Sammy Watkins hit fantasy free agency. He's potentially facing a season-ending surgery on his foot, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.
ESPN also reports (via ABC News) that wide receiver Kevin White suffered an ankle injury during Chicago's win on Sunday. We'll await more clarity on this injury, as White is starting to emerge as a steady target in the Bears offense.
In that same game, the Detroit Lions' Dwayne Washington suffered an ankle injury, per Michael Rothstein of ESPN.
Buy-Low Targets After Week 4 in Fantasy Football
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The market in fantasy football can quickly shift from week to week, as we tend to be an over-reactive bunch. With that in mind, what players coming off of disappointing Week 4 performances can we poach at a discount to secure future dividends?
Quarterback
We're guessing the New York Giants won't dominate the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night, which would mean Eli Manning could be a nice buy-low after a sluggish start to the season in the scoring department. The yardage and passing volume is present, so a positive correction is coming soon enough.
As for Carson Palmer, he's still on pace for 4,600 yards and has an elite collection of weapons at his disposal, so low-ball offers for him are in order.
Running Back
The Cincinnati Bengals' Giovani Bernard has been relatively quiet this season, but he's going to get to a respectable final line eventually. This means a positive correction in the receiving department is likely coming soon, so he's a fine buy-low in point-per-reception markets.
Similarly, the Cleveland Browns' Duke Johnson could become more valuable once Josh McCown is back behind center. He's another fine buy-low in PPR formats.
If you can net the Detroit Lions' Theo Riddick after three straight sluggish outings, we like the value. He's the lone healthy back and remains a nice bet for over 1,000 total yards with rich receiving metrics.
If you can stomach the space on your roster, bids for the Miami Dolphins' Arian Foster could prove cheap and rewarding. It's clear the team doesn't have competent competition for him on the depth chart.
As for the Green Bay Packers' Eddie Lacy, his buy-low window is still open and appears intriguing given he's actually looked good of late. The game tape and the box scores could finally meet soon enough.
Wide Receiver
We want to get deflated shares of the New England Patriots' Julian Edelman before he feasts on the Cleveland Browns in Tom Brady's return to the field. Volume should meet efficiency immediately for Edelman. His investors haven't gotten much so far, so you can potentially get him for cheaper than he's worth.
Big-play vertical threats coming off poor Week 4 outings, such as the Washington Redskins' DeSean Jackson and the San Diego Chargers' Travis Benjamin, are ideal buy-low targets. Both should continue to see valuable vertical work, but boom-or-bust patterns are to be expected given such low-percentage deep looks.
If you can net deflated shares of the Carolina Panthers' Kelvin Benjamin, he should continue to be a red-zone maven despite some quiet showings. Similarly, we think Alshon Jeffery is a fine buy-low asset considering his potential for big box scores. Given his history of lingering injuries, however, just make sure your offers are modest for Jeffery. Three role players for one star, a classic fantasy trading strategy, is a fitting offer here.
As for the Detroit Lions' Golden Tate, his numbers are so awful that you must be able to get him on the cheap—20 cents on the dollar given his lofty draft price. Based on his receiving pedigree over the past two seasons, we're willing to take on shares of him. But make sure the offers are low, as his investors must be panicked.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski played 39 of 58 snaps in Week 4, per Pro Football Focus, suggesting he was healthy enough for a significant role. With Brady returning to the Patriots offense in Week 5, making offers for Gronkowski below market value could prove profitable going forward.
The market for the Tennessee Titans' Delanie Walker could be depressed, while his impressive share of the team's offense still makes him desirable.
We'd also like to make some modest bids for the Cincinnati Bengals' Tyler Eifert. His price could be down before he returns and resumes his role as a valuable red-zone threat.
Sell-High Assets After Week 4
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There is likely a perfect point at which we can sell certain commodities to maximize profits. Let's examine some players who could be worth shipping off for the right price at each skill position.
Quarterback
Blake Bortles is currently 11th in fantasy points per game in ESPN leagues, but he's mostly playing sloppy football. A brutal fantasy playoff stretch that includes matchups with the Broncos, Vikings and Texans makes him an ideal sell for those that can get any sort of value in return.
If you can leverage Dak Prescott's consistent production into valuable skill assets, like Theo Riddick, we advise doing so before Tony Romo returns for the Dallas Cowboys and deflates the rookie's value.
Running Back
The New England Patriots' LeGarrette Blount was a game-flow and scheme-dependent asset last season—he would disappear from the game plan when the Patriots went pass-happy against certain defensive fronts. With Tom Brady on his way back, that inconsistency could return. We suggest marketing Blount while he's ninth in fantasy points per game among backs in ESPN leagues.
We'd also recommend marketing the San Diego Chargers' Melvin Gordon if you can net a stellar return. (For example, package him with a WR2 and go after a superstar wideout.) We dig the fact that Gordon dominates goal-line work for the Chargers, but his lack of efficiency at just 3.15 yards per carry spells some low-floor outings when he doesn't score. The market might never be better for Gordon—that's the real reason for this suggestion.
If you can successfully sell the Atlanta Falcons' Tevin Coleman, it could prove wise, as teammate Devonta Freeman is the better back and has the clearer path to yardage each week. Last week's huge showing from Coleman inflates his fantasy metrics, thus the timing is ideal.
Wide Receiver
We really dig the talent Will Fuller has flashed to start the season, but his dependence on big-play performances isn't ideal—he could be near the peak of his marketability. This isn't to suggest you should sell for the sake of it, but testing the market for a hot rookie's value is a wise move in this case. Pairing him with a Gordon or a Blount might net you a Mike Evans- or Odell Beckham-level asset.
We also appreciate Michael Crabtree's awesome three-score showing this week, but he's near the peak of his market value too. Selling him for a strong yardage asset or a buy-low like Alshon Jeffery could be interesting for value diversification.
Tight End
It's tough to find many marketable assets at this shallow position, but we'd be fine with dangling Kyle Rudolph of the Minnesota Vikings during his hot start. He's not going to net you much alone, but he's a fine asset in a multi-player offer for a single buy-low star.
Target data and fantasy production rates sourced from an ESPN database for this article.
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