
Bowling Green vs. Ohio State: Game Preview, Prediction and Players to Watch
Head coach Urban Meyer and the No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes are replacing 16 starters from last year's team, but they're aiming to reload for another potential run at the College Football Playoff.
Their 2016 campaign starts this Saturday, when they host Bowling Green in Ohio Stadium for a noon showdown.
The Falcons should provide a solid test for the young Buckeyes. They're no stranger to the big stage, as they've won the MAC twice in the last three seasons.
Here's everything you need to know about Ohio State's season opener.
Viewing Information
Date: Saturday, Sep. 3
Time: Noon ET
Place: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio
TV: Big Ten Network
Spread: Ohio State (-27), via Odds Shark
Ohio State Keys to Victory
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Set the Tone
There's a reason Ohio State's a 27-point favorite over Bowling Green.
After a mass exodus of talent to the NFL, the Buckeyes enter the season as the youngest team in the country, according to college football expert Phil Steele. But Urban Meyer has signed the Big Ten's best recruiting class in each of his five years with the Buckeyes, and there's a load of talent on the roster despite the inexperience.
As the superior team, Ohio State needs to set the tone and establish that fact early. The longer this game remains close, the tighter this young team will play.
Getting a double-digit lead early will calm the underclassmen's nerves and help them execute.
Spread the Ball
Ohio State is replacing its entire starting wide receiver corps after losing Michael Thomas, Jalin Marshall and Braxton Miller to the NFL. Those three led the Buckeyes in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown catches in 2015, so the Buckeyes need a completely new set of perimeter playmakers to emerge.
Wideouts Noah Brown, Parris Campbell Curtis Samuel and even true freshman Austin Mack have to get involved. The Falcons defense was susceptible in passing situations last year, ranking 79th in pass defense and 123rd in giving up plays of 10 or more yards.
The Buckeyes should put that secondary to the test early.
Bowling Green Keys to Victory
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Ride the Line
Bowling Green won the MAC in 2015 riding one of the most explosive offenses in college football. The Falcons ranked fourth nationally in total offense with 546.8 yards per game and sixth in scoring offense, averaging 42.2 points an outing.
Quarterback Matt Johnson was the catalyst, throwing for 4,946 yards and 46 touchdowns against just eight interceptions on the season. His primary target, Roger Lewis, hauled in 85 receptions for 1,544 yards and 16 touchdowns while running back Travis Greene carved defenses up on the ground while running for 1,299 yards and 15 touchdowns.
None of those three will be back for the Falcons in 2016, however. Head coach Mike Jinks is hoping to reload quickly, but he'd be wise to rely on an offensive line (and a running game) that returns four starters from last year's insanely productive unit.
If those four can push around Ohio State's new-look defensive line that will feature three new starters, Bowling Green could get its run game going and keep Ohio State's offense on the sideline.
Win the Turnover Battle
Any underdog facing the kind of odds Bowling Green is up against will need a lot to go its way to pull off a historic upset.
One of the easiest ways to tilt the momentum is winning the turnover battle.
The Falcons were one of the best in the country at managing the turnover margin on a weakly basis. In 2015, they ranked ninth nationally in that category, while Ohio State struggled with the giveaway game.
If those struggles continue for the Buckeyes and the Falcons defense keeps up its opportunistic style, Bowling Green will have a chance to keep it close.
Ohio State Players to Watch
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Noah Brown
There's a big question mark in the Buckeyes backfield next to quarterback J.T. Barrett after the departure of Ezekiel Elliott and the sudden dismissal of redshirt senior Bri'onte Dunn, but with the high standard Urban Meyer has established during his tenure in Columbus, fans should expect a certain (high) level of production from the running back position.
The bigger question mark is at receiver, where Noah Brown is primed to take over.
The redshirt sophomore was emerging as a big piece in the 2015 offense before a broken leg in fall camp derailed his season. Now back and fully healthy, Brown is back in the fold and catching everything in sight.
The Buckeyes will roll out a host of new pass-catchers such as Parris Campbell, Austin Mack and tight end Marcus Baugh, but Brown should lead the charge as Barrett's top target.
Dante Booker
Ohio State's defense has been anchored by a freakishly athletic linebacker since Meyer took over in 2012.
In his first two years, it was Ryan Shazier bringing the speed to the linebacker unit. He didn't run a 40 at the combine, but he spent time over the summer beating fellow Pittsburgh Steeler wideouts in a foot race (a contest that included Antonio Brown, the best receiver in the league).
Over the last two seasons, it was converted safety Darron Lee who paced the linebackers. Lee did run at the NFL combine and clocked a 4.47 40-yard dash, which was faster than many of the wideouts in last year's draft.
That kind of speed has given Ohio State an edge defensively, and Dante Booker is looking to step into that role this fall.
The 6'3", 236-pound linebacker was Joshua Perry's primary backup last season, but middle linbacker Raekwon McMillan is excited about the added athleticism Booker brings to the defense.
"Dante is a way better athlete," McMillan said earlier this year when comparing Booker to Perry, according to The Plain Dealer. "When he gets on the field, he does some things y'all haven't seen yet. He's one of the fastest guys on the defense regardless of position, and he just brings that pop."
Bowling Green Players to Watch
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James Knapke
How do you replace the most productive quarterback in school history?
That's the question that will linger over the head of coach Mike Jinks and new quarterback James Knapke before the Falcons kick off against the Buckeyes on Saturday.
From a pure numbers perspective, it would be unfair to expect Knapke to put up similar numbers to Matt Johnson. Last year, Johnson was nearly flawless and threw for more than four touchdowns in a game an incredible five times.
But Knapke isn't walking into his first collegiate action. As a sophomore two years ago, he stepped in after Johnson suffered a season-ending injury in the first game of the year, and he went on to throw for 3,173 yards and 15 touchdowns.
Knapke wasn't as accurate a thrower and threw more interceptions (15) in his lone season starting than Johnson ever did, but he proved he can be productive.
He'll need to be at his absolute best on Saturday.
Austin Valdez
Bowling Green was pushed around defensively last season—Tennessee hung 59 on the Falcons, Memphis put up 44 and Georgia Southern notched 58 in the bowl game—and its national ranking reflected that as it ranked 86th in total defense and 84th in scoring defense.
But that doesn't mean the defense was void of playmakers. Trenton Greene was one of the best linebackers in the conference and piled up 97 tackles and 8.5 tackles for loss. But Greene is a complement to one of the MAC's most disruptive defenders.
Austin Valdez is the clear leader of the defense and led the team in tackles (101) and tackles for loss (11) in 2015. He isn't just a run-stuffer either—he also excelled in pass coverage and registered two interceptions, five pass breakups and seven passes defended.
His all-around game netted him first-team conference honors in 2015, and he'll be looking to carry that momentum over into Ohio Stadium on Saturday.
What They're Saying
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With so much attrition on offense for Ohio State, Urban Meyer is hoping to find a balance between run and pass in 2016, according to Ari Wasserman of Cleveland.com.
"We'll know more obviously Saturday but we have depth at receiver. We have a returning quarterback that understands what we're trying to do. And at the end of the day it's 250 [yards rushing], 250 [yards passing] is the perfect. And we've had some close to that, but last year it was imbalanced and we have to be very balanced.
"
Bowling Green quarterback James Knapke talked about taking over the offense after the departure of record-breaking signal-caller Matt Johnson.
“I’m comfortable in this offense," Knapke said, according to John Wagner of the Blade. "And having the guys up front being so experienced really helps, because you know you don’t have to worry about that.”
Prediction
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Ohio State will come out firing with its passing attack, and Bowling Green won't have the weapons to keep pace.
J.T. Barrett will start hot, completing seven of his first 10 passes for 125 yards and two touchdown in the first quarter. Mike Weber will get the first touchdown of his collegiate career at the beginning of the second quarter to open a 21-7 lead, and the Buckeyes won't look back from there. Another touchdown pass from Barrett to Noah Brown will put Ohio State up three scores, and a field goal at the end of the half will give the Buckeyes a 24-point lead at the break.
The Falcons will put together a few nice drives in the second half, but none will finish in the end zone. Ohio State will focus on the run game in the second half to get Weber going and drain the clock. The Buckeyes will put up 550 total yards and cruise to an easy victory.
Ohio State 48, Bowling Green 16
All recruiting rankings and information courtesy of 247Sports.
David Regimbal is the lead Ohio State football writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @davidreg412.
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