Biggest Challenge for Each Top Heisman Candidate in 2016

Anticipation and constant debate about preseason college football rankings aren't just for teams. In the last several years, offseason chatter on which player will win the next Heisman Trophy has reached new heights.

Now that the 2016 college football season is less than one month away—finally—we have a clearer picture on who the top candidates are for this year's Heisman heading into September.

Many of them are familiar names from last year's race, such as Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Clemson's Deshaun Watson, both of whom were finalists. Others are younger stars with major potential or top players who didn't get enough of the spotlight in 2015.

Getting to New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony this December won't be easy for these contenders, though. Each of them has his own unique challenges ahead, whether it's expectations, his reputation or even his teammates.

Let's take a look at the 13 players who have Heisman Trophy odds at 25-1 or better, according to Odds Shark, and identify the biggest challenge standing between them and successful campaigns.

Alabama WR Calvin Ridley

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Current odds: 25-1

Biggest challenge: Getting enough targets in loaded wide receiver group

After leading national champion Alabama in receiving last season with 1,045 yards as a freshman, Calvin Ridley has become a trendy dark-horse pick to win the Heisman Trophy in 2016. But it's going to be difficult for him to follow the same path that former Tide wideout Amari Cooper took to become a finalist in 2014.

There's just too much talent in Alabama's wide receiver room this season.

Wide receivers who make realistic Heisman pushes dominate the targets on their team. Ridley is an elite playmaker, but he's just one outstanding piece in what could be the nation's best receiving group in 2016. Alabama returns No. 2 receiver ArDarius Stewart and national title-game MVP tight end O.J. Howard; both men will have whoever wins the starting quarterback job in Tuscaloosa throwing a lot of balls their way.

The Tide also return Robert Foster, a former 5-star who got off to a hot start in 2015 before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury against Ole Miss. There's also the addition of Bowling Green graduate transfer Gehrig Dieter, who is coming off a 94-catch season with the Falcons.

Ridley is a special wide receiver and will get plenty of chances in the passing game this season. But it's easier to expect offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin to get his quarterback to spread the ball around than it is to see Ridley have a Cooper-like season and contend for the Heisman.

Oklahoma RB Samaje Perine

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Current odds: 25-1

Biggest challenge: Beating out teammate Baker Mayfield

Samaje Perine is an interesting case of a star player in 2016. He was electrifying as a freshman in 2014 and broke the FBS' all-time record for rushing yards in a game with 427 against Kansas. But last year, in a new-look offense, Perine's production dropped across the board.

That offense from coordinator Lincoln Riley put a bigger Heisman shine on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who came in fourth in voting with an efficient season. Perine was still a valuable weapon with 1,349 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns on 226 carries, but those numbers weren't enough for him to compete for the Heisman in a loaded running back class that included eventual winner Derrick Henry.

Perine has decent preseason Heisman odds, but his role in Oklahoma's Air Raid offense will most likely prevent him from being a serious contender. Mayfield is the star to watch in Norman, as he'll get more opportunities to shine after his strong campaign in 2015.

In order for Perine to contend for the Heisman in 2016, he'll need to make the most of his opportunities on the ground and bring his numbers to elite levels again.

He'll have to prove he's a more valuable weapon for the Sooners than Mayfield, who will be in the spotlight from the first snap of the season.

Alabama RB Bo Scarbrough

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Current odds: 20-1

Biggest challenge: Alabama's running back by committee 

Alabama running back Bo Scarbrough has only carried the ball 18 times in his collegiate career, but he's already up to 20-1 odds to win next year's Heisman Trophy.

It's easy to see why people are high on his hype. Alabama had another massive, physically imposing running back in Derrick Henry (6'3", 242 lbs) win the famous award last year by dominating the carries for the eventual national champion. The star offensive player on Alabama is always going to get Heisman hype, and Scarbrough has what it takes to be just that for the Tide in 2016.

However, as Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote late last month, Scarbrough will likely split carries with Damien Harris, another former 5-star running back in Tuscaloosa:

"

While Scarbrough is 6'2", 230 pounds, he has just 104 career rushing yards, some offensive line questions in front of him and will likely be part of a committee early with sophomore Damien Harris.

That will prevent Scarbrough from putting together a season comparable to Henry's, which is what needs to happen to make a legitimate Heisman run based on the quarterback talent that will likely contend around the country.

"

For Scarbrough to contend for the Heisman Trophy this year, he'll need to show he's the clear-cut choice for Alabama's run-first offense from the start of the season opener against USC on Sept. 3—and then not slow down the rest of the way.

Oregon RB Royce Freeman

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Current odds: 20-1

Biggest challenge: Needing to be on a better team than last season

Based on numbers alone, Royce Freeman should have been somewhere in the Heisman race last season. He rushed for more yards per game than Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliott and averaged more yards per touch than Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey.

However, his Heisman stock dropped off during Oregon's subpar first half of the 2015 campaign, when the Ducks lost to Michigan State, Utah and Washington State. That stretch kept them from contending for a national championship and became their undoing in the race for the Pac-12 title, even though they beat eventual conference champion Stanford.

For Freeman to be in the thick of the Heisman race this season—especially in an area of the country that isn't prone to producing winners unless they're by far the best candidates—Oregon needs to contend for championships. 

"Given his well-rounded skill set, and given how productive he has already been in two seasons, Freeman needs to be included in any preseason Heisman talk," Matt Brown of Sports on Earth wrote. "Of course, his fate partially depends on the rest of his team. It's still hard to know what to expect from Oregon as a whole this season."

If Oregon's offense can get back to being a more dominant unit in 2016 with FCS transfer quarterback Dakota Prukop, Freeman will get the touches he needs to contend. But if he's just a star player on another nine-win team—or worse—he won't come close to landing in New York City as a finalist.

Georgia RB Nick Chubb

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Current odds: 16-1

Biggest challenge: Health

Georgia running back Nick Chubb's numbers as the No. 1 option for the Bulldogs have been jaw-dropping. He rushed for at least 100 yards in 13 straight games stretching from October 2014 to early in the 2015 campaign, and he averaged more than seven yards per carry in that span.

But a knee injury derailed Chubb's streak—the torn PCL was so devastating that the running back's status for the 2016 season opener on Sept. 3 against North Carolina was unclear for most of the offseason.

According to Marc Weiszer of the Athens Banner-Herald, when the media asked Chubb this week if he would be back at his previous form whenever he returns for the Bulldogs, he replied that he has "no idea" and he
"won't know until we get back out there."

If Chubb is able to return to action and look like the running back who torched defenses during his long 100-yard-game streak, then there's no doubt he'll contend for the Heisman Trophy in 2016. The potential in his numbers is too great.

However, if Georgia takes things slow early with Chubb in order to protect his surgically repaired knee or if he does not perform at the same high level post-injury, he'll have a hard time getting back into the conversation.

Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly

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Current odds: 16-1

Biggest challenge: Trying to do too much

If you're looking for a gunslinging quarterback who will put up huge numbers, look no further than Ole Miss' Chad Kelly. The nephew of NFL great Jim Kelly threw for more than 4,000 yards last season, added 500 more on the ground and scored 41 touchdowns for the Rebels.

Even though Kelly lost star receiver Laquon Treadwell and No. 2 option Cody Core to the NFL this offseason, Ole Miss is still strong at wideout heading into 2016. The biggest issue for Kelly's Heisman campaign, though, might be Kelly himself.

"Unlike the conservative [Tennessee quarterback Joshua] Dobbs, Kelly will force throws into areas blanketed by defensive backs," Alec Shirkey of SEC Country wrote. "He was intercepted 13 times last season, second only to Kentucky’s Patrick Towles among SEC passers. He also caught a couple of breaks in big games."

Kelly will need to avoid following the path of other aggressive passers whose preseason Heisman campaigns fell apart with too many interceptions and bad decisions. Johnny Manziel had four more interceptions in 2013 than he did when he won the award for 2012. Jameis Winston threw nearly twice as many picks in 2014 than he did in his 2013 season, and that kept him in part from getting his hands on another Heisman.

The Ole Miss signal-caller has a huge arm and a fearlessness that should lead to big-time stats in head coach Hugh Freeze's uptempo offense. He'll just need to avoid forcing things too much and instead focus on being efficient.

UCLA QB Josh Rosen

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Current odds: 16-1

Biggest challenge: Adjusting to a new-look offense

UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen showed tremendous poise and potential in the pocket last season, when he commanded the Bruins offense as a true freshman starter. He should only get better from here, and that's why he's getting preseason Heisman buzz.

The weapons around Rosen, though, will be much different than what he was used to last year. Gone are three of his top four receivers—Jordan Payton, Devin Fuller and Thomas Duarte—and star running back Paul Perkins, who was a receiving weapon out of the backfield. The Bruins will also have to break in three new starting offensive linemen.

On top of that, UCLA is moving to a different kind of offense this season after coordinator Noel Mazzone's move to Texas A&M. New coordinator Kennedy Polamalu has an adjusted scheme that, if it works out, should take full advantage of Rosen's talents as a quarterback.

"Polamalu [will] be more reliant on Rosen's ability to dissect defenses at the line of scrimmage," Kyle Bonagura of ESPN.com wrote. "After working primarily out of the shotgun in Mazzone's scheme, Rosen is expected to regularly take snaps from under center in an offense that will also rely on the use of fullbacks and tight ends."

Rosen should thrive in the new offensive system, but he won't win a Heisman Trophy all on his own. The Bruins will need the rest of their skill talent and line protection to make the transition and play at a high level. If that happens, look out for this sophomore star. 

Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield

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Current odds: 14-1

Biggest challenge: Overcoming a brutal schedule

Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield is in a good spot to contend for the Heisman Trophy this season after coming in fourth in voting last year. The Sooners star should be motivated to make the finalist cut this time around, and his numbers could improve despite the loss of top receiver Sterling Shepard to the NFL.

Mayfield's biggest challenge will be handling what will be a brutal Oklahoma schedule, especially in the first part of the season, and all eyes will be on him when the Sooners take on several top-notch opponents.

Oklahoma opens the season against Houston, an upset-minded and legitimately strong program that will employ an attack-first defense. The Sooners will face the always talented Ohio State two weeks later. Two weeks after that, Oklahoma begins a back-to-back away from home against TCU, which should have a strong defense in 2016, and a Texas team that held Mayfield to one of his quietest days last season in an upset.

All of that comes within the first six weeks of the season. If Mayfield is less than stellar in those nationally televised outings or if the Sooners drop a couple of them, his Heisman chances will take a hit.

Mayfield has the talent to shine early and often in a potential Heisman-winning campaign this fall. It just won't be easy, given the tough schedule.

Florida State RB Dalvin Cook

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Current odds: 12-1

Biggest challenge: Matching last year's numbers

Dalvin Cook's numbers were absurd last season for Florida State, as he averaged 7.38 yards on 229 touches and scored 19 touchdowns. He did it behind an inexperienced offensive line and with some nagging injury issues, so the assumption is that he could put up even better stats in 2016.

But even at 100 percent health, getting to that level won't necessarily be automatic for Cook. Some of the nation's best run defenses from last season—Ole Miss, Louisville, South Florida, Clemson, Boston College and Florida—will stand in his way in the regular season.

Cook's nearly 1,700 rushing yards last season were a rarity for Florida State, especially in the era of head coach Jimbo Fisher. Quarterbacks usually get the spotlight in Tallahassee, and the Seminoles had issues there in 2015 between Everett Golson and Sean Maguire.

That opened things up more for Cook to lead the way on offense. If FSU can find more stability under center for 2016, he might not get the same number of opportunities to torch defenses.

Cook will most likely need to match his incredible stats from last season in order to have a shot at the Heisman Trophy. Plenty of factors say he could do just that in 2016, but it won't be a sure thing.

Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett

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Current odds: 12-1

Biggest challenge: Producing big numbers with all that youth

Ohio State quarterback J.T. Barrett has the tools to compete for the Heisman Trophy in 2016. He has plenty of experience in head coach Urban Meyer's spread offense, a ton of dual-threat ability and a previous Heisman push on his resume—he finished fifth in voting as a redshirt freshman in 2014.

But Barrett won't be playing on the veteran-loaded squad he was a part of last season in Columbus. He is one of only three returning offensive starters for the Buckeyes, which means that a lot of his supporting cast will be new to first-team life.

Gone are running back Ezekiel Elliott and four of the Buckeyes' top five receivers from last season. Three of the starting offensive linemen for 2016 will be new too, which will make things more difficult for Barrett at least at the beginning.

There's no denying Ohio State has talent all across the offense heading into this season. Meyer has loaded up on elite recruiting classes, and weapons such as Noah Brown, Torrance Gibson and Mike Weber can play. The Buckeyes just won't have the established experience that a star quarterback would want to have in his top options.

That amount of potential-filled youth will put even more responsibility on Barrett to produce for Ohio State in 2016, and that's fantastic for his Heisman hopes. But he'll also have to rely on all those new starters to help him get to New York City this December.

Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey

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Current odds: 11-2

Biggest challenge: Topping last year's record-breaking performance

Running back Christian McCaffrey is a no-doubt Heisman Trophy candidate heading into the 2016 season. He does it all for Stanford on offense and special teams, which gives him plenty of chances to pull off highlight-reel plays and stuff the stat sheets.

But if breaking Barry Sanders' FBS record for all-purpose yardage in a single season didn't net him the Heisman Trophy last season, what will?

That's the biggest challenge for McCaffrey's Heisman hopes in 2016. Whether it was because of geography or Stanford's failure to get into the College Football Playoff, he didn't win the award after having one of the best all-around seasons in college football history.

Does he have to do even more to get his hands on the trophy this season?

Topping last season's numbers will be difficult because he won't have veteran quarterback Kevin Hogan getting him the ball this year. The offensive line will replace three starters, including Outland Trophy winner Joshua Garnett. Stanford will also have to face a treacherous schedule that includes road games against UCLA, Washington, Notre Dame and Oregon.

McCaffrey is a special talent who has been one of the best playmakers in college football. But betting on him to win the Heisman this season is hard because he will probably have to do more with less.

Clemson QB Deshaun Watson

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Current odds: 9-2

Biggest challenge: Living up to high expectations

As a preseason Heisman contender, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson checks all the boxes. He finished third in voting last season, so he's familiar with putting up the necessary stats. Clemson's top running back in Wayne Gallman, six of its top eight receivers and Mike Williams, Watson's No. 1 receiver in 2014 who missed almost all of 2015, will be back.

The Tigers QB can pick apart defenses with his arm on his legs, and he has the right amount of explosiveness and efficiency that results in big numbers. He might be the safest bet to win the Heisman in 2016.

But those high expectations will be a challenge for his campaign this fall. If he falls short of the standard he and the Tigers set in 2015, when they made an undefeated run all the way to the national championship game, he'll have a harder time winning the trophy.

"Unlike last season, Clemson won't be unscathed in the regular season again, and if it's not the ACC champion and it's not off to the CFP, there won't be a Heisman," Pete Fiutak of Campus Insiders wrote. "As long as he's able to last the season and doesn’t get banged up, he'll be too good in the loaded offense to not end up in New York City."

Watson has the talent and the supporting cast to prove all the doubters wrong this season. But an underwhelming game or two could ensure his second Heisman campaign finishes just short of first place yet again.

LSU RB Leonard Fournette

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Current odds: 4-1

Biggest challenge: All those stacked boxes

Leonard Fournette was basically two-thirds of his way to a Heisman Trophy last season. Until the beginning of November, when his LSU Tigers faced Alabama's dominant defense, he seemingly had the famous award in the bag.

But Alabama stacked the box against the red-hot Fournette and dared LSU quarterback Brandon Harris to beat the Tide with his arm. Harris only completed six of his 19 passes; Fournette was limited to just 31 yards on 19 carries; and LSU opened what would be a three-game losing streak that kept the talented running back out of New York City for the Heisman Trophy ceremony.

Not every stacked box against Fournette is going to handcuff him like Alabama did. However, defenses will key on him all season long, and some will have success at making him look like a mere mortal.

Head coach Les Miles and offensive coordinator Cam Cameron should look to be more aggressive on offense, and Harris needs to open things up for Fournette with the passing game. If that doesn't happen, he could see a repeat of what happened last fall.

LSU has all the returning talent to contend for an SEC and national title this season, and Fournette could lead the way for the Bayou Bengals with a Heisman-winning campaign. It will take a total team effort, though, to get Fournette in the best spot to take home the famous stiff-arming trophy.

Stats are courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings are courtesy of 247Sports.

Justin Ferguson is a National College Football Analyst at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.