One-and-Done Candidates on the NBA Draft Radar in 2016-17
College basketball freshmen look poised to dominate the 2017 NBA draft board.
Next June's lottery will be loaded with one-and-done prospects. It wouldn't be shocking to see nine of them go in the top 10.
Duke, Kentucky and Arizona all appear to be in jeopardy of losing multiple freshmen to the draft.
There are other candidates to throw out there, including Kentucky's Edrice Adebayo and Wenyen Gabriel, Michigan State's Miles Bridges and Arizona's Ray Smith. But next May, scouts will likely recommend they return to improve their stocks as sophomores.
NBA teams will consider the following 13 NCAA newcomers in the first round of the 2017 draft. The list is in order of where these players will fall in the 2017 NBA draft, assuming they all declare.
13. Frank Jackson (Duke, PG/SG)
1 of 13
Early Projected Draft Range: Late first round
All of the surrounding talent at Duke won't mask Frank Jackson's pro potential. An explosive leaper with a powerful frame, he mixes bounce and strength with dangerous shot-making ability.
Jackson has lethal three-point range and the ability to shoot off the dribble. He isn't the most sound playmaker, but he can handle the ball and move it within the offense.
Looking like a capable setup man will boost his stock, as he lacks ideal size (6'4") for a 2-guard. He'll want to show scouts he can play the point.
Still, Jackson's athleticism, NBA body and jumper should be enough to draw first-round interest next June.
12. Malik Monk (Kentucky, SG)
2 of 13
Early Projected Draft Range: Late lottery to late first round
Malik Monk will replace Jamal Murray as Kentucky's top scorer in the backcourt.
A few missing inches of height (6'3") won't prevent NBA interest from building. He's the bounciest one-and-done candidate and one of the premier athletes in the country.
Monk can fly, but he can also knock down shots and create off the dribble. His jumper extends out to the arc, and his handle and wiggle fuel playmaking potential.
With the quickness and tools to cover point guards, Monk checks off boxes under perimeter defense, transition offense, shot-making and passing.
At the NBA 2, he'll have to match up with much bigger players, and that makes it difficult to picture him developing into a star or high-end starter.
Still, there is some Norman Powell in Monk. He's a first-round talent with a wide projected range from 10 to 30.
11. De'Aaron Fox (Kentucky, PG)
3 of 13Early Projected Draft Range: Late lottery to late first round
The spotlight will naturally find De'Aaron Fox as Kentucky's point guard. However, he'd earn it anyway with ridiculous quickness and playmaking at both ends of the floor.
Fox has fast feet and hands that should translate to defensive pressure and steals right away. He makes life uncomfortable for opposing ball-handlers.
Offensively, he thrives as a table-setter off ball screens and penetration. He's more of a facilitator than scorer, though he'll generate his fair share of offense attacking the rim and lofting in floaters.
Fox's perimeter game isn't overly sharp, and at 171 pounds, it's fair to question how well he'll finish at the rim. But his ability to create for teammates and force turnovers should both be viewed as translatable strengths.
10. Jarrett Allen (Texas, C)
4 of 13Early Projected Draft Range: Late lottery to mid-first round
Texas should get plenty of double-doubles next year from its lively freshman center. Jarrett Allen, who measures 6'10 ¾" with a giant 7'5 ½" wingspan, projects as a high-activity big in the paint.
He isn't the most skilled offensive player, but Allen picks up buckets by running the floor, rolling off screens, crashing the glass and diving to the rim.
Allen should also emerge as next year's top-ranked one-and-done rim protector. Disruptive length, mobile feet and a live motor translate to challenges and blocked shots.
Over the next few years, he'll need to improve his post game and touch, but that won't stop NBA teams from taking an interest in him next June.
Allen looks poised to become the first center called in the 2017 NBA draft.
9. Lauri Markkanen (Arizona, PF/C)
5 of 13Early Projected Draft Range: Late lottery to late first round
Lauri Markkanen raised the bar for himself with an outstanding showing at the U20 European Championships. He led the tournament in scoring, averaging 24.9 points and 8.7 rebounds per game through seven contests.
At 7'0", Markkanen projects as a stretch 4 or small-ball 5, which every NBA team craves. In 33 FIBA games dating back to 2013, he's made 40.6 percent of his threes on 138 attempts.
More than just a shooter, his quick first step and scoring ability on the move will cause matchup problems for slower 4s and 5s.
Athletic, strong, versatile and polished, Markkanen projects as an impact player at Arizona. He should have production to match the inside-out potential NBA teams will be coveting next June.
8. Rawle Alkins (Arizona, SG)
6 of 13Early Projected Draft Range: Late lottery to late first round
An athletic, physical 2-guard, Rawle Alkins gives Arizona an immediate punch and two-way contributor.
Under the NBA lens, he's somewhat undersized at 6'4", but Alkins compensates with bounce, power, skills and motor.
He'll get to the line at a high rate, thanks to the ability to shake defenders off the bounce and attack through contact. With a developing perimeter game, Alkins should emerge as a top scoring option.
He's bound to make a name for himself at the defensive end as well. Alkins taps into his competitiveness, strength and quickness to lock down both backcourt positions. Arizona head coach Sean Miller could even experiment assigning him to wings and small-ball 4s.
By the end of the season, Alkins should have done enough to convince scouts he's a first-round talent with lottery potential.
7. Lonzo Ball (UCLA, PG)
7 of 13
Early Projected Draft Range: Lottery
Lonzo Ball's passing ability is going to create buzz. Throw in 6'4" size, above-the-rim bounce and tremendous defensive quickness, and he should also draw interest from NBA teams.
Ball projects as a high-usage ball-handler at UCLA, where he'll operate as the team's setup man. His vision is off the charts, as is his ability to thread the needle, launch an outlet or drive-and-dish with precision.
With strong instincts and fast hands, he projects as a playmaker at both ends. It wouldn't be surprising to see Ball atop the Pac-12 rankings in assists and steals as a freshman.
There are still some questions tied to Ball, including wacky jump-shot mechanics, inconsistent shooting and a skinny frame. These are potential weaknesses that could hold him outside the premier point guard tier of prospects that features Markelle Fultz and Dennis Smith.
Still, teams are bound to recognize and appreciate Ball's knack for making teammates better. He isn't a top-10 lock, but first-round interest should still be there after one year at UCLA.
6. Jonathan Isaac (Florida State, SF)
8 of 13Early Projected Draft Range: Mid-lottery to mid-first round
"Potential" and "project" will be popular NBA draft buzzwords used to describe Jonathan Isaac in 2016-17.
He lacks polish and muscle, but there is obvious upside tied to his 6'10 ½" size, 7'1 ¼" wingspan, athleticism and face-up scoring ability.
Too big for wings and quick off the bounce for forwards, Isaac possesses unique versatility at both ends of the floor.
Offensively, he's flashed three-point range, a believable stroke and the ability to create with the dribble. Defensively, he offers big-man size with lateral foot speed to guard the perimeter.
Between a lack of strength and the fact he doesn't specialize in one specific area, inconsistency could haunt Isaac during ACC play. But that shouldn't fog up the NBA scouting goggles that project five years down the road.
Even if the production and efficiency aren't there, expect willing NBA teams to chase the upside.
5. Jayson Tatum (Duke, SF)
9 of 13
Early Projected Draft Range: Top 10
Jayson Tatum passes the NBA eye test and should excel playing the Jabari Parker role for Duke.
Expect comparisons to be made throughout the year. Tatum is a highly skilled small forward with a face-up game and small-ball 4 potential.
He last measured 6'8 ¼" with a 6'11" wingspan during April's Nike Hoop Summit.
The mid-range is Tatum's office, where he can create shots as a driver, pull-up scorer and step-back shooter. He's a strong one-on-one player with a handle and knack for hitting tough shots.
On the downside, he has a tendency to settle for low-percentage two-point jumpers. And though capable from behind the arc, it's reasonable to expect long-range inconsistency.
Still, with two-way physical tools, solid athleticism, ball-handling ability and shot-making prowess, there is a lot to like about Duke's projected starting 3, both this year and in the long term.
4. Harry Giles (Duke, PF)
10 of 13Early Projected Draft Range: Top five
Coming off a second torn ACL in three years and with his name still in the top three of each major recruiting service (ESPN, Rivals, 247Sports, Scout), Harry Giles will have a ton of NBA eyes on him.
Super athletic with 6'10 ¾" size and a 7'3" wingspan, he's hungry and explosive around the basket, both as a scorer and rebounder. Giles is going to post double-doubles even on off nights. Aggressive inside, he does his damage as a finisher, cleanup man, post player and line-drive attacker.
He'll flash defensive potential in rim protection and pick-and-roll coverage.
Giles isn't as polished as other No. 1 overall candidates, but spectacular tools, bounce, developing offense and room for growth fuel monster upside.
3. Dennis Smith (North Carolina State, PG)
11 of 13Early Projected Draft Range: Top five
Reports on Dennis Smith's knee have all been positive since his return from an August 2015 ACL tear.
He recently created buzz with a "welcome back" performance during July's Adidas Nations.
"I came here to show that I'm not holding back from anything," he told Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn.
Smith is an explosive 6'2" ball-handler who can soar above the rim and break ankles around the perimeter. He's a nightmare to contain off the dribble, and with exceptional ball skills and vision, Smith packs exciting scoring and playmaking firepower.
His jumper needs some work; otherwise, it's tough to identify holes in his game.
Assuming he makes scouts forget about last summer's knee injury, Smith should emerge as a top-five talent and sleeper at No. 1 overall.
2. Josh Jackson (Kansas, SG/SF)
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Early Projected Draft Range: Top three
Josh Jackson oozes versatility that fueled wings like Tracy McGrady and Paul George to All-Star heights.
At 6'7 ¾" with effortless bounce, he's a wing who can create shots, make them and find teammates off the dribble.
Pull-up scoring, ball-handling, passing, attacking—Jackson, a dynamite athlete in transition, can also do it all in the half court.
His defensive potential is equally appealing. Jackson plays with high energy and possesses the quickness to contain three positions around the perimeter.
Though over a year older than some of the other projected one-and-done freshmen, don't expect teams to dock Jackson for age.
Shooting is another story. It's not likely Jackson shoots a high percentage from three, but as long as he proves himself capable and likely to improve, we should still be talking about a No. 1 overall contender.
1. Markelle Fultz (Washington, PG)
13 of 13Early Projected Draft Range: Top three
Between Dejounte Murray and Andrew Andrews, the Washington Huskies lost a backcourt that combined to average 37.0 points on 27.9 field-goal attempts per game. Considering the team also plays at the second-fastest pace in the country, per KenPom.com, Markelle Fultz will have the chance to put up epic freshman numbers.
Fultz is the full package at point guard—above-the-rim bounce, IQ, confidence, ball-handling ability, 6'3 ½" size.
He's going to take over games as a scorer with slick shot creativity and the ability to nail tough, contested jumpers. He'll also show the unselfishness and vision to play the role of setup man for teammates.
The game slows down for Fultz, who can freeze the defense before blowing by, spinning around, passing through or shooting over.
He's gradually risen with each event over the past year—from the Nike Hoop Summit in April to July's FIBA Americas Championship in Chile, where he won both gold and MVP.
Fultz will start the year as the No. 1 overall favorite.
All heights sourced from Draft Express, ESPN.com and NBADraft.net.
