The Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 92: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
The UFC heads to Salt Lake City this Saturday night, August 6, with a decent offering on Fox Sports 1.
In the main event, The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America winner and rising talent Yair Rodriguez gets his first crack at a headlining slot against talented veteran Alex Caceres. Rodriguez is a potential star in his native Mexico, but he's relatively unknown outside the MMA bubble, and this is a big opportunity for him to demonstrate that he's worth the UFC's future investment.
While the card lacks big names, it's long on potential action.
Rodriguez-Caceres should be a barnburner between two talented fighters. In the co-main event, Dennis Bermudez takes on Brazilian TUF winner Rony Jason in a crackling matchup that's more about entertainment than a future title shot for either fighter.
While the middleweight bout between Thales Leites and Chris Camozzi is an exception, the rest of the main card should deliver. Santiago Ponzinibbio and Zak Cummings aren't well-known, but they're fun and violent.
Blue-chip prospect Joseph Gigliotti, who has finished each of his seven wins, gets a chance to make a splash in his debut against the veteran Trevor Smith. The main card's opener between Ukrainian Maryna Moroz and Danielle Taylor is yet another violent matchup, at least on paper.
The same pattern holds for the preliminary card. Cub Swanson takes on Tatsuya Kawajiri in an excellent Fight Pass main event, Court McGee and Dominique Steele headline the Fox Sports 1 prelims, and the featherweight battle between prospects Teruto Ishihara and Horacio Gutierrez is one to watch.
There's action everywhere you look. Let's dive into each and every fight.
The Fight Pass Prelims
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Heavyweights
Chase Sherman (9-1; 0-0 UFC) vs. Justin Ledet (6-0, 1 N/C; 0-0 UFC)
Debuting heavyweights open the show on Fight Pass. Sherman is a former college football player who fights out of UFC veteran Alan Belcher's gym in Mississippi, while Texas' Ledet has experience as a professional boxer in addition to his seven MMA fights.
Sherman is big, reasonably athletic and likes to strike. He has power in his hands and is particularly proficient as a counterpuncher. There's little available footage of Ledet in recent years, but it's clear he owns quick, powerful hands.
Prediction: There isn't much to go on here. Ledet is a slight favorite, and he should be the more experienced and more technical striker. Without any real confidence, the pick is Ledet by decision.
Featherweights
Cub Swanson (22-7; 7-3 UFC) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-9-2; 3-2 UFC)
Featherweight veterans headline the Fight Pass portion of the event.
Swanson was on the cusp of a title shot at one point, winning six straight against excellent competition, but then lost two in a row against Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway. He rebounded by beating Hacran Dias in April. Kawajiri has had mixed results since coming to the UFC and had a two-fight winning streak snapped in a decision loss to Bermudez.
The winner will stay relevant in a rapidly changing division, while the loser will drop down the ladder and likely be relegated to gatekeeper status.
Swanson is a striker by trade. Despite his advancing age—he's 32 and has been a professional for a dozen years—Swanson is still quick and athletic and packs a massive punch. Angles and movement are his hallmark, and he leaps in with big single shots or hits a hard counter as his opponent comes in. Competent takedown defense keeps him standing.
Kawajiri's striking arsenal is unorthodox, focusing on powerful single shots and spinning strikes, but the heart of his game lies in his relentless takedowns and grappling. He throws brutal shots from top position and has a boulder-like base that makes him nearly impossible to shift. If the opportunity presents itself, he latches onto a choke and looks for the finish.
Prediction: This is Swanson's fight to lose. If he can keep this standing, he's the superior striker by a wide margin in terms of technical acumen and volume. Swanson finds the knockout shot in the second round.
The Fox Sports 1 Prelims
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Featherweights
Teruto Ishihara (9-2-2; 1-0-1 UFC) vs. Horacio Gutierrez (2-2; 0-1 UFC)
Japan's Ishihara, a finalist on the Road to UFC Japan reality show, takes on The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America 2 finalist Gutierrez. Ishihara drew with Mizuto Hirota at the show finale but viciously knocked out Julian Erosa in his next fight. Gutierrez dropped a decision to Enrique Barzola, the show winner, in November.
Ishihara is a quick striker with serious power in his hands. He likes to play an in-and-out game, leaping in with big punching combinations and kicks and then exiting on another angle. He has solid takedown defense as well. Gutierrez is athletic and big for the division at 5'10". He has the makings of a dangerous striker, throwing powerful combinations, but his wrestling skills aren't well-developed, and he's raw in general.
Prediction: Ishihara is a substantial favorite at minus-220, but that seems a bit high: If this stays on the feet, it's an interesting and close matchup between Ishihara's in-and-out game and Gutierrez's flat-footed, but powerful, boxing style. If the Japanese fighter can mix in a few takedowns, though, he should find success. Ishihara takes a decision in a strong contender for fight of the night.
Lightweights
David Teymur (4-1; 1-0 UFC) vs. Jason Novelli (11-1-1; 0-0 UFC)
Sweden's Teymur, a veteran of TUF 22, takes on the debuting Novelli, a native of the Pacific Northwest. Teymur defeated fellow Swede Martin Svensson in his first UFC appearance in February, while Novelli has beaten good competition on the regional scene.
Novelli is a technical and rangy striker who buries his opponent under a steady stream of kicks and long punches, putting his 6'0" frame to good use. He's a competent wrestler and grappler as well.
Teymur is a striker by trade with legitimate experience in muay thai and kickboxing, which manifests in a sharp counter game. Takedown defense is a strong suit, and in general, Teymur is a promising young fighter.
Prediction: Novelli will be the bigger fighter, but Teymur is a sharper and more experienced striker with the takedown defense to keep this standing. The Swede's kick counters in particular should be the difference here. Teymur takes a decision.
Heavyweights
Viktor Pesta (10-2; 1-2 UFC) vs. Marcin Tybura (13-4; 0-1 UFC)
Young heavyweights from Eastern Europe in desperate need of a win meet in an intriguing matchup. Poland's Tybura entered the UFC with a lot of hype but fell short in his debut against Timothy Johnson. Pesta, a native of the Czech Republic, has sandwiched losses to Ruslan Magomedov and Derrick Lewis around a win over Konstantin Erokhin.
The loser will almost certainly be cut, while the winner will find new life in a wide-open division.
Pesta is a decent kickboxer on the feet, but most of his game revolves around relentless takedown chains against the fence and suffocating top control. Excellent cardio and durability help him stick around late into the fight.
Tybura can do a bit of everything. As a striker, he boasts a solid kicking arsenal and works at a good pace, and he's a relentless chain-wrestler. Grappling is the best facet of his game, though, and he excels at both control and getting to the back for the rear-naked choke.
Prediction: This is a close matchup. Pesta is the better wrestler, but Tybura is the more dangerous grappler and should have a slight edge on the feet. The pick is Tybura by decision.
Welterweights
Court McGee (17-5; 6-4 UFC) vs. Dominique Steele (14-7; 1-2 UFC)
TUF 11 winner and Utah native McGee takes on Ohio's Steele in the preliminary card's headliner. McGee has split two fights since returning from a two-year layoff due to injuries, beating Marcio Alexandre in December and then suffering the first knockout loss of his career against Santiago Ponzinibbio. Steele dropped a close decision to Danny Roberts after defeating the lesser of the UFC's two Dong Hyun Kims in November.
Pressure and offensive output define McGee's game. He pushes forward behind a constant stream of punching combinations and cracking kicks to the body, and he excels at dragging opponents into exhausting, quick-paced fights. Solid defensive wrestling keeps him on his feet and he shoots the occasional takedown as a changeup. Durability and volume are the keys to this approach.
Steele isn't particularly fast or athletic, but he's a physical, in-your-face kind of fighter. He loves to come forward with powerful punching combinations and then tie up in the clinch, where he can grind away while landing potent shots against the fence. Big slams and punishing ground strikes add another dimension. His cardio isn't great, though, and he struggles outside close range.
Prediction: Steele could overpower McGee in the early going, but it's more likely that McGee's pace takes over as the fight goes on. McGee wins an increasingly one-sided decision.
Maryna Moroz vs. Danielle Taylor
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Strawweights
Maryna Moroz (7-1; 2-1 UFC) vs. Danielle Taylor (7-1; 0-0 UFC)
Ukraine's Moroz takes on the American Taylor, who steps in to replace the injured Justine Kish on just two weeks' notice. Moroz made waves in her debut by defeating heavy favorite Joanne Calderwood, and since then, she has split two fights, dropping a decision to title challenger Valerie Letourneau and then beating Cristina Stanciu. For her part, Taylor has beaten solid competition on the regional scene.
The Ukrainian is a diverse and dangerous fighter. On the feet, Moroz—an instructor for the Ukrainian women's national boxing team—showcases quick and powerful hands. Her jab is sharp and sets the tone and distance for her game, and she throws hard combinations when she sits down. On the counter, Moroz is quick on the trigger and always drops more than one shot at a time.
The occasional kick adds some variety, but Moroz's hands are the centerpiece of her game. She works at a good pace, but she isn't a defensive wizard and isn't particularly hard to hit.
Wrestling isn't Moroz's strong suit. She has a basic understanding of trips and shot takedowns, but her defensive wrestling is functional at best and nonexistent at worst. She's aggressive from her back, though, if not particularly diverse. The armbar is her go-to move.
Taylor is tiny for the division at only 5'0", but she makes up for that lack of size with big power in her hands and excellent speed. She likes to leap in and out of range with single kicks and punches and mixes in level changes and takedowns to distract from the threat of her hands.
In the clinch, however, Taylor's small stature is a serious issue. She can be over powered, and while it's hard to get in on her hips for a takedown given how low to the ground they are, she isn't particularly strong relative to her competition.
Betting Odds
Moroz -255 (bet $255 to win $100), Taylor +215 (bet $100 to win $125)
Prediction
While Moroz is hittable and Taylor's power is legitimate, the rest of the matchup favors the Ukrainian. She throws more volume, works in better combinations and has finishing ability on the mat to go along with her skill on the feet. Moroz takes a decision.
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Trevor Smith vs. Joseph Gigliotti
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Middleweights
Trevor Smith (13-6; 3-3 UFC) vs. Joseph Gigliotti (7-0; 0-0 UFC)
Blue-chip prospect Gigliotti, who fights out of Arizona's Power MMA team alongside Ryan Bader and CB Dollaway, makes his UFC debut against the veteran Smith. Smith hasn't fought since a decision win over Dan Miller a year ago and prior to that, alternated wins and losses in five more outings.
The 22-year-old Gigliotti is a ridiculous athlete blessed with exceptional speed, explosiveness and power. He's short for the division at 5'11", and his future is probably at welterweight, but his sheer physicality will suffice for the time being.
The debutant has a background in wrestling but blends all of his skills together nicely. He uses level changes to distract from hard punching combinations and uses punches to freeze his opponent and open up takedowns. All of his shots carry serious power, and he finishes his takedowns with authority. On top, Gigliotti passes quickly, rains down heavy shots and prefers the arm-triangle choke.
Gigliotti has never been the distance, and it's hard to tell how he'll react if pushed hard for three rounds. Transitions are the strength of his game, and he might struggle if forced to do nothing but strike, wrestle or grapple for extended periods of time.
Smith is a well-rounded veteran. The former Iowa State wrestler can do a bit of everything at this point in his career, throwing a crisp jab and solid punching combinations at range at a good pace.
His real wheelhouse is the clinch. Smith's 6'3" frame gives him great leverage on the inside, which he puts to good use for control while landing sequences of short punches, knees and elbows. Trips add another dimension to his game. Perhaps surprisingly, Smith isn't great at defending takedowns, though he isn't easy to hold down.
Betting Odds
Gigliotti -135, Smith +115
Prediction
This isn't an easy debut fight for Gigliotti, talented though he is: Smith exceeds his depth of knowledge in every phase, and only in the transitions does the debutant have a legitimate skill advantage.
Where Gigliotti has a real edge is his physicality. Smith is 35 and wasn't a great athlete even in his younger years, while Gigliotti is a beast.
This athletic disparity should make the difference, though, with the caveat that Gigliotti will probably lose if he gets sucked into a longer fight. Gigliotti finds a knockout punch in the first round.
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Zak Cummings
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Welterweights
Santiago Ponzinibbio (22-3; 4-2 UFC) vs. Zak Cummings (19-4; 4-1 UFC)
Argentina's Ponzinibbio takes on the American Cummings in an under-the-radar, but promising, welterweight scrap. Cummings has won two in a row since a submission loss to Gunnar Nelson, knocking out Dominique Steele and then taking a decision over Nicolas Dalby. Ponzinibbio has likewise won two in a row, both by knockout, finishing Andreas Stahl and McGee in the first round.
The winner will be well-placed for a matchup with an elite welterweight, while the loser will remain an interesting action fighter in a stacked division.
Pressure is Ponzinibbio's game. The Argentinean constantly moves forward, working behind a crisp jab and crushing low kicks. He has excellent fundamentals and balance, which allows him to move smoothly from punches to kicks and vice versa without compromising his stance.
All of Ponzinibbio's strikes carry big power, and his habit of using subtle footwork to find small angles enhances this. He'll take small steps and pivots that allow him to plant punches flush on the temple or to put kicks on the back of the hamstring rather than the side of the thigh. These are minute things, but they make a world of difference.
When he backs his opponent to the fence, Ponzinibbio unloads brutal head-body combinations and finishes them off with kicks. This is the heart and soul of his game, and it's where he makes his money.
While not the most accomplished defensive wrestler, Ponzinibbio has made real improvements in that facet recently. That comes with a caveat, though: Ponzinibbio struggles to stuff the initial shot, but he never stops his momentum when he hits the ground and keeps scrambling until he gets back to his feet.
An active guard keeps Ponzinibbio's opponents busy, while from top position he can do serious damage with ground strikes.
Ponzinibbio isn't a bad defensive fighter per se, but he loves to get in his opponent's face, which means he's always there to be hit. This is also the issue with his takedown defense: He tends to get so close that he's often on the mat before he even has time to defend the initial shot.
While not particularly well-known, the southpaw Cummings is an interesting and dangerous fighter. He doesn't throw a great deal of volume on the feet, but he's accurate and boasts fantastic timing and sense of the range. All of his shots carry serious power, and his subtle, efficient footwork gives him the chance to land them.
Counters are Cummings' specialty. He excels at drawing his opponent into the pocket and cutting a small angle as he steps back and throws or planting his feet and looping shots around, under or through the guard.
The American is a solid wrestler as well, though he doesn't shoot for many takedowns. Defensively, it's not easy to get him down, and his footwork and command of space make it difficult to get a clean shot at his hips.
Cummings really shines from top position. He maintains strong control, passes smoothly and has a knack for finding chokes in transition, especially the guillotine and brabo.
Betting Odds
Ponzinibbio -140, Cummings +120
Prediction
This is yet another close fight. The core of the matchup pits Cummings' sharp counterpunching against Ponzinibbio's relentless, quick-paced pressure. The question is whether the Argentinian will be able to pin Cummings against the fence and how much damage he'll take on the way in.
Pace will be key. Cummings can turn it up when he needs to, but he isn't a volume striker by nature, while Ponzinibbio buries his opponents with his offense. If the counters don't scare Ponzinibbio off, he'll throw and land more. Ponzinibbio takes a decision.
Thales Leites vs. Chris Camozzi
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Middleweights
Thales Leites (25-6; 10-5 UFC) vs. Chris Camozzi (24-10; 9-7 UFC)
Mid-tier 185-pounders meet in a well-matched fight. Leites won five consecutive fights after returning to the UFC in 2013 but has since lost two in a row, dropping decisions to Michael Bisping and Gegard Mousasi. The 29-year-old Camozzi seems to be hitting his stride as a fighter. He lost to Jacare Souza for a second time to begin this third stint in the UFC, but three wins in a row have him knocking on the door of the top 15.
Leites is a grappler by trade with a high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he's no picnic elsewhere, either. On the feet, Leites doesn't throw much volume, but he has legitimate power in his punches and kicks.
While he has real craft to his striking game, especially as a counterpuncher, Leites mostly looks to cover his clinch entries and shot takedowns. Strong trips and chains of singles and doubles against the fence make Leites a surprisingly crisp wrestler, and he isn't afraid to pull guard or try for a sacrifice throw in the hopes of creating a scramble in which he can work his way to top position.
On the ground, Leites is a monster. His technically sound game features an unshakable base, silky-smooth passes, hard strikes and an emphasis on submissions from the top. The arm triangle is his specialty, but he can do it all.
Camozzi is a rugged, durable fighter. The 6'3" southpaw prefers to strike and makes good use of his height with a preference for jabs and low kicks, especially cut kicks to the calf. He mixes in the occasional left straight and left kick to the body or head when he wants to do damage, but scoring points with a high volume of strikes is his wheelhouse more than power punching for knockouts.
The clinch is a strong secondary area for Camozzi. His height and long arms give him great leverage, which he puts to work with collar ties and frames. Sharp knees and a steady diet of elbows wear his opponent down and do serious damage in close quarters.
Camozzi isn't a great defensive wrestler, but he's serviceable enough to stuff all but very good takedown artists. He can hit the odd trip or shot takedown of his own for a change of pace, and while nobody will confuse him with an elite grappler, he knows how to maintain position on top and land a few strikes while surviving and scrambling back to his feet on the bottom.
Betting Odds
Leites -160, Camozzi +140
Prediction
If Camozzi can keep this standing, he'll probably outpoint Leites with a steady diet of low kicks and jabs. If Leites can get this to the mat, he can either control Camozzi or, more likely, finish with a submission. Given Camozzi's porous takedown defense, the latter seems more probable. Leites submits Camozzi in the second round.
Dennis Bermudez vs. Rony Jason
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Co-Main Event: Featherweights
Dennis Bermudez (16-5; 8-3 UFC) vs. Rony Jason (15-5, 1 NC; 4-2, 1 NC UFC)
The Ultimate Fighter 14 finalist Bermudez takes on TUF: Brazil winner Jason in an excellent featherweight battle.
Bermudez put together a seven-fight winning streak between 2012 and 2014, but consecutive losses to Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas set him back. He's back on the winning track now, though, after defeating Kawajiri in February. Jason has been out of action for a year since testing positive for a diuretic, which overturned his win over Damon Jackson last May.
The Brazilian is a wild and dangerous fighter blessed with great athleticism and serious power. On the feet, he throws wicked kicks, flying knees and vicious haymakers, but he doesn't throw many of them and can be outworked by more active opponents. There isn't much of a plan to these things, either: Jason just seems to throw them out there and hope they land.
From a technical perspective, wrestling is the weakest part of the Brazilian's game. He rarely shoots for takedowns, mostly relying on trips in the clinch, and is a genuinely bad defensive wrestler.
A lethal guard partially makes up for that deficiency. Jason is active from his back, constantly throwing up triangles, armbars and looking for sweeps, and he excels in scrambles and transitions.
Bermudez is highly skilled and dangerous, but he has some distinct flaws that have kept him out of the featherweight elite.
On the feet, Bermudez works at an outstanding pace. He works his way forward behind a crisp, consistent jab and then launches into crushing low kicks, picking his spots to sit down and throw slick head-body punching combinations. Rhythm is a strong suit, and Bermudez will tap away with half-power shots before surprising his opponent by throwing something at full speed and power.
The problem with this is defense. His short frame (5'6") and pressure style means Bermudez is constantly in range to be hit, and his lack of consistent head movement and parries means that when he gets hit, he gets hit cleanly.
In the clinch, Bermudez is a monster. He excels at grinding his opponent against the cage, and when he grabs the double-collar tie, he unleashes a vicious stream of fight-ending knees.
Wrestling is the strongest part of Bermudez's game. He's almost impossible to get to the mat, while offensively he has a knack for hitting big slams off his single- and double-leg shots. His strength is ridiculous when he grabs ahold of his opponent.
Bermudez isn't much of a control artist on the mat, and he tends to use his takedowns as a change of pace. He's excellent in transitions, though, and he's particularly good at getting to the back in a scramble.
Betting Odds
Bermudez -240, Jason +200
Prediction
There are two likely outcomes to this fight: Either Jason finishes the hittable Bermudez with a big shot or quick submission, probably early in the fight, or Bermudez grinds Jason down with volume and constant takedowns. While the former is a possibility, the latter seems more probable. Bermudez takes a decision.
Yair Rodriguez vs. Alex Caceres
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Main Event: Featherweights
Yair Rodriguez (8-1; 4-0 UFC) vs. Alex Caceres (12-8, 1 NC; 7-6, 1 NC UFC)
Since winning the first season of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America, Rodriguez has emerged as both a potential future champion type of prospect and the type of talent the UFC needs to break into the market of Mexican combat sports fans.
Rodriguez defeated Leonardo Morales to win the show and has looked increasingly impressive since then. Decision wins over Charles Rosa and Dan Hooker showcased real improvements to his game, and a stunning head-kick knockout win over Andre Fili in April marked his entry into the conversation at the top of the featherweight division.
This fight with Caceres is a soft step up. Caceres, a competitor on TUF 12 way back in 2010, has had an up-and-down stint in the organization. He started with a brutal 1-3 run but then hit his stride with four wins in a row at 135 pounds. Three more losses followed, and now he has won two more to set up this bout with Rodriguez.
Caceres is a skilled and tricky veteran, but Rodriguez is the A-side of his matchup. The raw young fighter still needs a bit more time to develop, and this fight is all about giving him exposure while allowing for a soft step up in competition.
Rodriguez is an extraordinary athlete blessed with exceptional speed and explosiveness. He's also tall for the division at 5'11", and his game relies on the twin pillars of size and physical gifts.
That combination of length and speed melds beautifully with Rodriguez's rangy kicking game, the basis of his approach to striking. He fluidly switches stances and circles through the space of the cage, cutting angles and then delivering a bewildering array of side, oblique, front, round and spinning kicks.
Side kicks to the thigh and body help to keep his opponent at long range, while slicing round kicks and crushing spinning kicks to the body and head do the real damage. Rodriguez's opponents struggle to cover the long distance that his kicks set, and as long as they're outside, Rodriguez can pick them apart with strike after strike after strike.
Inside that lengthy range, Rodriguez is still competent. He throws long punches and mixes in the occasional hook or spinning backfist, but it's clear that he's less comfortable there, and he rarely works in combinations.
Boxing is by far the weakest piece of his game, especially defensively; while he's rarely there to be hit, when his opponent can cover that distance, it's not difficult to land punches, and Rodriguez doesn't react especially well to that kind of pressure.
Rodriguez's solution to this lack of comfort in punching range is a slick and diverse arsenal in the clinch. He simply steps forward to cover that small chunk of distance rather than staying at middle range, and once he's tied up with his opponent, Rodriguez goes to work with an array of trips and throws. Hard knees and sharp elbows add another dimension of danger.
Solid defensive wrestling generally keeps Rodriguez standing. He struggled a bit earlier in his career but has improved noticeably in his last two fights, using hard overhooks and his strong hips to keep himself standing.
On the mat, Rodriguez is dangerous. He has an active guard that focuses on submission to sweep chains, making him hard to hold down in the event that his takedown defense does fail. From top position, his long limbs and good posture make him a surprisingly vicious ground-striker, and he passes beautifully and maintains a heavy base.
Caceres is a well-rounded veteran. Though only 28 years old, he's been in 14 fights during a five-year UFC career and has boatloads of experience against a variety of mid-level opposition at 135 and 145 pounds. Durability, diversity and enough flash to offer a surprise are his hallmarks.
On the feet, the southpaw is an accurate and quick-paced striker. He throws a steady stream of hard round kicks at all levels and mixes in effective punching combinations. Caceres relies less on spinning kicks and backfists than he used to, but he can still go to that flashy well when necessary.
There's a basic fundamental soundness to Caceres' striking arsenal that was lacking earlier in his career. He cuts sharp angles and melds his punches and kicks together nicely while working at a quicker pace. Accuracy has always been a strong suit, but he's better at moving his shots around and through his opponent's defenses than he used to be.
The most surprising part of Caceres' transformation are his drastically improved clinch and wrestling games. Slick trips and throws have become his bread and butter, and while he's still not an exceptional defender of takedowns, he has improved from his abysmal lack of defensive wrestling in his early UFC outings.
Grappling has always been a strong suit for Caceres. He has an active guard and throws up nice chains of sweeps and submissions from his back, while from top position he's a punishing ground-striker. Transitions are a specialty, and he has a variety of ways of getting to the back.
Betting Odds
Rodriguez -325, Caceres +265
Prediction
This is a fun and intriguing matchup. Rodriguez is the favorite and deservedly so, but the new and improved version of Caceres should test him in particular ways that will tell us a great deal about the Mexican fighter's chances moving forward.
Rodriguez will try to use his kicks to set a long range. Caceres will probably try to kick with him before moving forward into the pocket, and while the veteran isn't a devastating or particularly slick boxer, he's better there than what Rodriguez has shown in the past. If Caceres can consistently get to that range, Rodriguez will struggle.
Moreover, Caceres should test Rodriguez in the clinch. The Mexican fighter is strong in that phase and has shown serious trips and throws, but Caceres has a nice takedown arsenal of his own and won't make it easy for Rodriguez there.
If Caceres were just a bit better as a wrestler or a bit more dangerous in the pocket, he'd have a good shot at winning this, but he's just not quite good enough there to pull it off. Rodriguez takes a decision.
All betting odds via Odds Shark.
Patrick Wyman is the Senior MMA Analyst for Bleacher Report and the co-host of the Heavy Hands Podcast, your source for the finer points of face-punching. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook.
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