Favorites and Dark Horses for Every Major College Football Award in 2016
We're still more than a month away from the start of the 2016 season, yet thanks to the release of sizable "watch lists" for a flew of national awards, it's starting to feel like college football. And few things help tide fans over before the actual games begin than predictions about what will happen.
Today's focus is on those awards, ones that honor everything from the best overall player in the country to those given to the top performer at various positions. Yes, even kicker and punter.
The watch lists that have come out are so all-inclusive it's hard to figure out which players are the true contenders heading into 2016. We've sorted through the noise to identify the favorite for each honor, as well as a dark horse who could rise up and grab some hardware with the right kind of performance this fall.
Lou Groza Award (Top Kicker)
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The Favorite: Daniel Carlson, Auburn
After a disappointing offensive performance in 2015, Auburn coach Gus Malzahn vowed at SEC media days that this year's team will move the ball more effectively. But if drives end up stalling, at least the Tigers can take solace in knowing they have one of the most dependable kickers in the game.
Carlson was 23-of-27 on field goals last year as a sophomore, making 16 in a row at one point. Four of his boots were for at least 50 yards, a school record, and he's connected on all 97 extra points in his career.
Carlson was a finalist for the Lou Groza Award last year, losing out to UCLA's Ka'imi Fairbairn.
The Dark Horse: Josh Lambert, West Virginia
A 2014 Groza finalist after converting 30 field goals, tied for the second-most in Division I history, Lambert is the active FBS leader with 68 in three seasons. Another 21—the number he made last year—and he'll be the all-time field-goal leader, though his pursuit of that record will be delayed due to a three-game suspension to start the season.
Ray Guy Award (Top Punter)
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The Favorite: Michael Carrizosa, San Jose State
Carrizosa was third nationally in punting average last year as a sophomore, at 47.5 yards per attempt. The former walk-on made major improvement from his 37.1 average as a freshman, setting a school record in the process.
With his accuracy and distance, which included 22 kicks that landed inside the 20-yard line, San Jose State finished second in FBS in net punting.
The Dark Horse: Austin Rehkow, Idaho
Rehkow was the FBS punting leader as a freshman, was second in 2014 and seventh this past season, his 47.83 average in 2013 the all-time freshman record. At 47.24 yards per punt for his career, Rehkow is in line to be the FBS career punting leader barring a poor senior campaign.
Jim Thorpe Award (Top Defensive Back)
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The Favorite: Desmond King, Iowa
Reigning Thorpe Award winner Desmond King passed up the chance to enter the NFL draft last winter, putting more importance on getting his degree and helping his team take care of unfinished business. Iowa began 2015 with 12 consecutive wins before falling short in the Big Ten championship game and then losing badly to Stanford in the Rose Bowl.
"I think he’s excited about being back and also embracing the challenge of being a leader and being a better player than he was last year," Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz said of King at Big Ten media days (h/t Saturday Tradition).
It will be hard to top his 2015 performance, when King intercepted eight passes (returning one for a touchdown against Maryland) and broke up another 13 balls. That was in addition to recording 72 tackles and averaging better than 14 yards on punt returns.
The Dark Horse: Jordan Whitehead, Pittsburgh
The first defensive player to win the ACC's Rookie of the Year Award since 1996, per his online bio, Whitehead was the linchpin of Pittsburgh's defense last year as a true freshman. His 108 tackles were 20 more than any other Panther, and though he only had one interception, he was credited with six pass breakups as well as six tackles for loss.
Whitehead's start to this season could be delayed, though, after he underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee in June.
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Ted Hendricks Award (Top Defensive End)
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The Favorite: Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
One of the newer awards, given out since 2002, the Hendricks doesn't put out a preseason watch list, instead waiting until October to start cutting down the field. Garrett was on last year's midseason list and was one of six finalists for the honor—he's also the only one who returns for this season.
Garrett's first two college years have arguably been the best ever by an SEC defensive end, first breaking Jadeveon Clowney's freshman conference sack mark in 2014 with 11.5 and then leading the league with 12.5 last season. He's recorded 33.5 tackles for loss in the process, including 19.5 in 2015.
This could be one of several defensive awards Garrett ends up taking home this fall if he has a strong junior campaign.
The Dark Horse: Hunter Dimick, Utah
Dimick had a breakout season in 2014 as a redshirt sophomore, with 10 sacks as part of a Utah defense that led the country with 55. But he only managed three sacks last year in an injury-plagued effort that saw him miss six games while being less than 100 percent in most of the others, finishing with only three sacks.
Assuming he's able to stay healthy, Dimick should get consideration for comeback player of the year recognition in addition to this award.
Dick Butkus Award (Top Linebacker)
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The Favorite: Raekwon McMillan, Ohio State
McMillan finds his name on numerous preseason watch lists, including one the Big Ten releases each summer in lieu of a preseason all-conference team. This award is where he has the best chance to win, since it's specifically geared toward players like McMillan who patrol the middle of the field and contribute both to the run and pass defense.
Last year, McMillan was all over the field for Ohio State, leading the team with 119 tackles to go with four tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and four pass break-ups.
One of only three returning starters on defense for the Buckeyes, McMillan is as important to that unit as quarterback J.T. Barrett is to OSU's offense in 2016.
The Dark Horse: Zach Cunningham, Vanderbilt
Major national awards tend to go to great players from the most successful teams, which often causes standouts from losing squads to miss out on deserving accolades. If Vanderbilt can win a few more games in 2016, getting into a bowl and possibly challenging in the SEC East, Cunningham won't fall victim to such a sleight.
Cunningham wasn't a starter at the beginning of last season but finished as one, recording 103 tackles with 16.5 tackles for loss as well as four forced fumbles, third-most in the SEC.
Rotary Lombardi Award (Top Lineman/Linebacker)
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The Favorite: Devonte Fields, Louisville
Named after famed NFL coach Vince Lombardi, there are detailed requirements for eligible players based on how far they play off the line of scrimmage or how far they line up away from the ball on offense or defense. In its 46-year history, the award has gone to nine offensive linemen, 10 linebackers and 27 defensive linemen.
Defenders have won every year since 1997, with three of the last five going to linebackers. Our pick is a guy who began his career on the defensive line but has developed into a hybrid pass-rusher who can play up close or start on the second level but still get to the quarterback.
Fields' 22.5 tackles for loss last season were third-best in FBS and the most of any returning player, going along with 11 sacks and two forced fumbles as a junior. He began his career at TCU as a defensive end, winning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2012.
The Dark Horse: Anthony Walker, Northwestern
Billed by his school as "The Franchise," a campaign meant to raise awareness of his talents through a viral video as well as commemorative lunch boxes given out to media, Walker had 120 tackles and 22.5 tackles for loss last season. His play helped the Wildcats win 10 games and rank 12th nationally in scoring defense in 2015.
Outland Trophy (Top Lineman)
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The Favorite: Cam Robinson, Alabama
The big boys in the trenches are all eligible for the Outland Trophy, given out since 1946 to either offensive or defensive linemen. It's been blockers who have won five of the last six awards, including Stanford guard Joshua Garnett last year. In 2016, it is Robinson's to lose.
A starter since Alabama's season opener in 2014 as a true freshman, Robinson has been part of lines that have yielded just 42 sacks in his 29 games with very few attributed to his work at left tackle.
Pegged by Bleacher Report's Matt Miller as the No. 6 prospect on his 2017 NFL draft big board, Robinson will again be Alabama's anchor this season.
The Dark Horse: Carlos Watkins, Clemson
Five of last year's Outland semifinalists were on offense, and only 17 of the 70 players on the 2016 watch list play on defense. Watkins is the only defensive tackle from the ACC that made that initial list, recognized for a solid 2015 season in which he had 7.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.
Watkins is the veteran on a relatively young Clemson defensive line. Other younger players might have more name recognition, but Watkins could be the key to that group matching last season's performance.
Rimington Trophy (Top Center)
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The Favorite: Ethan Pocic, LSU
Success on the offensive line starts in the middle, where a clean snap can be the difference between a big play and a botched one. Pocic has started LSU's last 13 games at center, with 16 starts there for his career in addition to nine at guard. Last season, he led the SEC with 132.5 knockdown blocks while paving the way for Leonard Fournette to rumble for big runs.
Pocic's versatility, which is unique for someone who plays on the interior at 6'7”, may also lead him to play at tackle in 2016 if needed.
The Dark Horse: Pat Elflein, Ohio State
Another multiposition offensive lineman, Elflein started every game for the Buckeyes at either left or right guard in 2014 and 2015 but is moving into the middle for his senior season. He is one of only three returning offensive starters for OSU, and his connection with quarterback J.T. Barrett will be integral to how this season goes.
John Mackey Award (Top Tight End)
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The Favorite: Jake Butt, Michigan
The 16 previous Mackey Award recipients have averaged about 55 receptions, 687 yards and 5.5 touchdowns in their winning seasons. Butt wasn't far off those numbers last year as a junior, with 51 catches for 654 yards and three scores.
Though he's one of three pass-catchers that Michigan returns who had at least 50 receptions in 2015, Butt's 6'6”, 248-pound frame makes for a very welcoming target over the middle.
The Dark Horse: O.J. Howard, Alabama
Howard has been college football's unicorn during his career, a promising and sizable (6'6”, 242 lbs) tight end who has mostly gone unused by Alabama. He has 69 catches in three seasons, 38 last year, but until scoring two touchdowns in the national championship game in January, he hadn't found the end zone since October of his freshman year.
If 'Bama makes him a regular part of the pass offense this season, Howard will stop being just a promising pro prospect and finally meet his collegiate expectations.
Fred Biletnikoff Award (Top Wide Receiver)
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The Favorite: JuJu Smith-Schuster, USC
Baylor's Corey Coleman won the Biletnikoff last season despite only making 74 receptions, the fewest by this award's recipient since Charles Rogers had 68 catches in 2002. What Coleman lacked in overall catches he made up for in what he did with the ball, scoring 20 times.
Smith-Schuster does both of those things well, catching 89 passes for 1,454 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2015. He was the most efficient and explosive receiver in the country, according to SB Nation's Bill Connelly, who charted Smith-Schuster as the only wideout in FBS to rank in the upper tier in catch rate, yards per catch, yards per target and target rate.
"Congratulations in advance to 2016 Biletnikoff Award winner JuJu Smith-Schuster," Connelly wrote.
With USC breaking in a new quarterback, Smith-Schuster's importance goes up a few notches, as he'll probably end up getting targeted even more in 2016.
The Dark Horse: Gabe Marks, Washington State
Washington State's FBS-best passing offense lends itself to big numbers for its receivers, and Marks is in line for a second straight 100-catch season. Last year, he had 104, tied for sixth-most in Pac-12 history, and the senior is 68 receptions from being the conference's all-time leader.
Marks caught 15 TD passes in 2015 with at least one in 10 of 13 games.
Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award (Top Senior Quarterback)
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The Favorite: Chad Kelly, Ole Miss
Not so much a lifetime achievement award as it is one that rewards loyalty—since so many top quarterbacks tend to turn pro as soon as they're eligible—the Unitas is given to a passer who is in his fourth college season or beyond. This normally means seniors, but in 2014, Marcus Mariota won as a redshirt junior, as did Andrew Luck in 2011.
Kelly is a fifth-year senior, one who has only had one full season of action at the FBS level to this point. That came in 2015, his first go-around with Ole Miss after beginning his career at Clemson (and spending time at a junior college in between), and Kelly quickly established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in program history.
He set numerous single-season records, including for passing yards (4,042), total offense (4,542) and total touchdowns (41). Ranked by Bleacher Report as the top fifth-year senior in the game, he's a natural choice for this award.
The Dark Horse: Davis Webb, California
The recent prevalence of graduate transfers in college football, particularly at the quarterback position, has made it inevitable that someone who takes advantage of this rule will end up winning a major award. Webb could be that pioneer if his move from Texas Tech to California (with a brief stopover at Colorado) produces a big year.
Webb threw for 5,557 yards and 46 touchdowns in three seasons with the Red Raiders, starting 18 games as a freshman and sophomore before Patrick Mahomes II overtook him. Cal is turning to him to replace Jared Goff, the No. 1 pick in the 2016 NFL draft, and has a new offensive coordinator in former Texas A&M play-caller Jake Spavital.
Davey O'Brien Award (Top Quarterback)
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The Favorite: Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Passers of all ages (and classes) are eligible for this quarterback award, though it will be hard for someone other than the most recent recipient to win it in 2016. Watson was honored in December for his monster sophomore season, which ended up being the first in FBS history in which a QB threw for 4,000 yards and ran for another 1,000.
Watson is the third straight 4,000-yard passer to win the award and fourth in five years, the exception being Johnny Manziel in 2012 during his Heisman-winning season. There's a strong Heisman connection with the O'Brien Award, with the last eight passers to claim the Heisman also getting this trophy.
Oklahoma's Jason White was the last repeat O'Brien winner, in 2003-04, beating out Heisman winner Matt Leinart for the second one.
The Dark Horse: Lamar Jackson, Louisville
Postseason games don't factor into determining these national awards; otherwise, Jackson might have been in the mix for the O'Brien the way he finished up his true freshman season. In throwing for 227 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 226 yards and two scores against Texas A&M in the Music City Bowl, Jackson became the third quarterback to top 200 yards in both statistics in a bowl game.
Jackson has focused on improving his throwing this offseason after completing at just a 54.7 percent clip last year. A boost in that area combined with his running ability will make him a contender for national honors.
Doak Walker Award (Top Running Back)
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The Favorite: Leonard Fournette, LSU
Only five running backs have won the Heisman since 1998, and four of those times they also took home the Doak Walker Award. That includes Alabama's Derrick Henry last year, while Mark Ingram's surprise 2009 Heisman came in the same year that Stanford's Toby Gerhart was honored as the nation's top rusher.
Fournette has the best Heisman odds of any running back, per Odds Shark, which puts him in a good spot to sweep both awards. This one is the safer bet, particularly if Fournette is able to surpass the school-record 1,953 yards and 22 touchdowns he had last year, and his chances to win aren't as tied to LSU's success as a team as it would be for the Heisman.
One of two returning Doak Walker finalists, along with Stanford's Christian McCaffrey, Fournette is the best pure running back in the country and likely the first one to be taken in the 2017 NFL draft assuming he turns pro.
The Dark Horse: Matt Breida, Georgia Southern
The option is still used by a small number of FBS teams, and none do it better than Georgia Southern. The Eagles led FBS with 363 rushing yards per game in 2015, their second time in as many seasons since moving up from FCS to top the national charts.
It's a by-committee approach for Georgia Southern, but Breida is the one who gets the bulk of the carries and is also the one who does the most damage. Last year, he ran for 1,608 yards and 17 touchdowns on just 203 touches, with 1,485 yards and 17 scores on 171 rushes the season before. Nearly 10 percent (36 of 374) of his FBS carries have gone for 20 or more yards.
Chuck Bednarik Award (Top Defensive Player)
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The Favorite: Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
One of two national "top defender" awards, the Bednarik has gone to linebackers three of the last four seasons and to defensive linemen only twice since 2005. Make that three times, as Garrett is poised to end the recent linebacker dominance if he's able to have a third consecutive monster season.
Rated by Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman as the top "freak" in college football, Garrett has been nearly unstoppable to this point in his career but feels like he can be much better.
"Getting off the edge and run-defending, I know my coaches tell me I could get better at that, and I have been working on that for the last two years," Garrett told reporters at SEC media days.
Being able to stop the run as well as he does the pass—only 9.5 of his 33.5 tackles for loss have been on run plays—is what will take Garrett's game to the next level and get him some hardware.
The Dark Horse: Kendell Beckwith, LSU
Players of Beckwith's quality usually leave LSU as quickly as they can, the school tending to get hit harder than most each year by early entry into the NFL draft. Beckwith bucked that trend last winter, opting to come back for his senior year and thus giving the Tigers one of their most experienced defensive groups in years.
Beckwith gets involved in all facets of defense, recording 84 tackles (with 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks) along with two forced fumbles and a pass break-up in 2015. Those numbers should all go up this fall with fellow linebacker Deion Jones having departed, upping his award chances.
Bronko Nagurski Award (Top Defensive Player)
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The Favorite: Jabrill Peppers, Michigan
Though presented by different organizations and selected by unique voting groups, the Nagurski has mirrored the Bednarik Award's winner each of the last four years. We've strived for diversity in our picks, so although Texas A&M's Myles Garrett should be considered a favorite for this one as well, we're going in a different direction.
Peppers' redshirt sophomore season could be a huge one depending on how he performs in new Michigan defensive coordinator Don Brown's system. A defensive back in 2014 and 2015, coaches shifted Peppers this spring into a linebacker position in order to get him more involved in the entire defensive approach.
"There’s multiple places he can be effective on defense," Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh said, per Campus Insiders. "And you want the opposition to wonder where he’ll be. You want them to understand that he can be just about anywhere."
The Dark Horse: Carl Lawson, Auburn
When Lawson has been healthy, he's been really good for Auburn, but far too often in his career, he's been held back by injuries. He was limited to seven games in 2015 because of hip problems after missing the previous season with a torn ACL.
The Tigers are hoping Lawson can avoid injury this fall and expect him to play a big role on their defense. If he can return to the form of his freshman year in 2013, it will bode well for Auburn's SEC prospects and his chances at national recognition.
Walter Camp Award (Player of the Year)
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The Favorite: Leonard Fournette, LSU
Running backs haven't won consecutive Walter Camp trophies since Wisconsin's Ron Dayne followed Texas' Ricky Williams in 1998 and 1999. Those guys also happened to win the Heisman those years, which gives you an idea of how the Camp voters lean when picking their national player of the year.
Fournette is a top Heisman contender—the presumptive front-runner in 2015 before LSU started losing—and therefore, he's at the top of the list for this award as well.
Part of the award description listed on the Walter Camp Football Foundation website is a line that fits Fournette perfectly: "His standout performance on the playing field must be accompanied by an equally strong effort to contribute to the betterment of the life of all his fellow human beings."
En route to setting a single-season school rushing record last year, Fournette raised more than $100,000 for South Carolina flood victims by auctioning off a game-used jersey.
The Dark Horse: Dalvin Cook, Florida State
Much like LSU was heavily reliant on Fournette's running in 2015, so to was Florida State with the work Cook did on the ground. Neither school wants to fall into that same pattern again this season, though Cook might be more capable of leading his team to the playoffs coming out of the ACC.
Cook ran for a school-record 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns last year despite missing one game because of injury and being limited in others. He had shoulder surgery this spring, which should enable him to withstand even more punishment after carrying the ball 399 times in his first two seasons.
Maxwell Award (Outstanding Player)
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The Favorite: Christian McCaffrey, Stanford
Both a Maxwell and Heisman finalist last year, McCaffrey didn't win either award despite producing the most all-purpose yards in FBS history. He didn't set the record until after award season had passed, and while past performance isn't supposed to factor into current consideration, McCaffrey will come into 2015 with some momentum.
The key will be maintaining it, which could require him to surpass his record numbers. A 2,000-yard rusher and also Stanford's leading receiver and top return man, McCaffrey's junior year has him in position to handle all of those roles again.
How Stanford fares in the playoff picture will also have a significant impact on McCaffrey's award chances. The Cardinal were picked to win the Pac-12 for the first time in the league's media poll, though a tough schedule looms large.
The Dark Horse: Nick Chubb, Georgia
Chubb's knee injury last October was so significant there was concern his playing days might be over. He's still a question mark in regard to if he'll be at 100 percent when the 2016 season starts, but the fact he's recovered so much in such a short time is amazing in its own right.
"Few players in the college game returning from injuries will be watched as closely for progress in fall camp as the Bulldogs' star junior," NFL.com's Chase Goodbread wrote.
Chubb had rushed for at least 100 yards in 13 straight games before getting hurt. If that streak continues when he returns to the field, awards could follow.
Heisman Trophy (Outstanding Player)
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The Favorite: Deshaun Watson, Clemson
The preseason odds leader was a distant third in the Heisman Trophy voting last year, but then Watson put together two more masterful performances in the playoffs. He was responsible for 478 of Clemson's 550 yards of total offense in the national championship game, almost single-handedly leading the Tigers to a title.
Watson is unquestionably the best player on arguably the best team in college football, a combination that screams Heisman winner. He's unlikely to lose the former of those distinctions, but Clemson's quest to return to the playoffs will matter just as much to voters.
The last three Heisman winners were on teams heading into either the playoffs or the BCS championship game. If Clemson slips in the ACC, which is entirely possible thanks to its matchups with Florida State and Louisville, it will be hard for Watson to be able to remain the Heisman favorite unless his numbers are so ridiculously better than everyone else in the race.
That's how Johnny Manziel won it in 2012 on a Texas A&M team that finished second in its division and how Robert Griffin III edged Andrew Luck in 2011 despite Baylor losing three games.
The Dark Horse: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
Oklahoma's last two Heisman winners were quarterbacks, but since Sam Bradford won it in 2008, the Sooners haven't had anyone finish in the top 10 until Mayfield was fourth last year. He didn't get enough votes to warrant being invited to New York City, however.
If Mayfield has another year like he did last fall, when he operated like a gunslinger and smoothly transitioned Oklahoma back to the Air Raid offense while winning the Big 12 and making the playoffs, Mayfield seems like a shoo-in to be a Heisman finalist. What will help his cause are a pair of major nonconference clashes against Houston and Ohio State, games where he can get an early Heisman boost with strong individual efforts during the course of victories.
All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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