Potential Rewards Far Outweigh Risks for Borussia Dortmund in Mario Gotze Deal

One of the most spectacular—and controversial—transfers in recent Bundesliga history is finally complete: Mario Gotze will make a sensational return to Borussia Dortmund.

Thomas Hennecke of Kicker (link in German) reported that Dortmund will pay a base fee of €26 million for the versatile midfielder, who will sign a four-year contract after passing his medical.

It's a stiff price for a player who clearly isn't in head coach Carlo Ancelotti's plans and out of contract in 2017, but it's one that the Black and Yellows can easily afford after the high-priced sales of Mats Hummels, Ilkay Gundogan and Henrikh Mkhitaryan this summer.

It's an exciting deal for the Ruhr side, but it's not one without risks.

The club usually doesn't have the chance to add a world-class talent about to enter his prime years, and there can be no question that Gotze represents that level of potential quality. He was regarded as a once-in-a-generation talent during his first stint at the Westfalenstadion, and despite his struggles in Bavaria, he still is among the most gifted footballers in Germany.

He'll fill the creative void that the departures of Gundogan and Mkhitaryan have left, which is something Dortmund desperately need even though they've already signed six highly talented players. The 24-year-old could play any number of roles in Thomas Tuchel's system that focuses on position play and ball retention.

He'd be an improvement over Shinji Kagawa in a No. 10 role, he'd be a candidate to play up front as a fluidly moving central forward and he could play on the wing, because—unlike at Bayern under Pep Guardiola—full-backs provide width while the wingers often make early inward runs. 

Although not a natural central midfielder, he could also play in Gundogan's old spot, especially should Tuchel keep playing a three-man defence behind the two central midfielders.

Moreover, thanks to his impeccable technique in tight spaces and excellent awareness in the final third, Gotze would be a logical replacement for Mkhitaryan, who excelled in a relatively free role under Tuchel. Much like the Armenian, the Germany international is a creative genius in his best form, able to shred a defence to pieces with dribbles or passes.

Quick combinations between Dortmund's attackers led to many goals last season, and the club would do well trying to recreate the magic even after their best player left for Manchester United.

Of course, Gotze hasn't been in his best form for a while. More than anything, injuries have derailed his career in Bavaria to a point where a transfer seemed inevitable despite the 24-year-old committing to the club in an interview with German tabloid Bild (h/t Coral Barry of Sky Sports) in May.

Although he's done fairly well whenever given a chance under Guardiola, Gotze never developed into a full-time starter and the kind of impact player his talent would dictate. This is perhaps best indicated by the fact that he's played a grand total of 50 minutes in six UEFA Champions League semi-final matches, against Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid, per Transfermarkt.co.uk.

Due to numerous nagging injuries, he failed to get into any kind of rhythm, especially over the last two years, and ended up surplus to the Catalan's requirements, receiving most of his playing time in relatively meaningless matches.

For Dortmund, that doesn't have to be a bad thing, seeing as he'll be fresh upon his return. Apart from a rib injury that kept him out of the DFB-Pokal final against his former and future team-mates, the 24-year-old has been healthy since February, which should allow him to get up to speed quickly once he joins up with the team after his vacation following Euro 2016.

During the tournament, he struggled leading the line. Countless crosses sailed over his head, and he was so cut off from his team's combination play that he often dropped deep into midfield just to get a touch of the ball every now and then.

His best performance came when he was finally allowed to play in a role more suited to his qualities against Northern Ireland, where he played on the left wing and looked much more lively. That match reminded of the Gotze of old. If Tuchel can unlock that player, Dortmund just made a hell of a deal. 

However, it's a transfer that could divide the club from a large contingent of fans.

Many felt, and still feel, betrayed by Gotze, who left his boyhood club for the Bavarian rivals in 2013 thanks to a buyout clause, only two months after saying he could see himself finishing his career at Dortmund in an interview with local paper Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung (link in German).

It's hard to envision a scenario in which he'd be received with open arms by the same people who threw fruits and lighters after him the last time he visited the Westfalenstadion. The group already voiced their disapproval of a return in May, unfurling a banner on the famous south stand that read, per Stefan Buczko of ESPN FC: "Milan or Madrid—just not Dortmund. Piss off Gotze!"

It will take a lot of effort from the club and the 24-year-old himself to repair what was broken three years ago. Of course, many fans will forget everything once he puts on a yellow shirt and starts playing well, but there will be scepticism, if not hostility, from others.

Gotze acknowledged these circumstances in his initial statement after Dortmund announced his return, as relayed by ESPN FC's Stephan Uersfeld:

"

When I left BVB for FC Bayern in 2013, it was a conscious decision and one I don't want to hide today.

Three years on, and now 24, I look at it from a different view. I can understand that many fans were not able to relate to my decision. I wouldn't repeat it from where I am today.

When I now return to my home, I want to try to convince all people with my performances, especially those who will not welcome me with open arms. It's my goal to play my best football again. For us all, the club and the BVB fans.

"

The group of hardcore supporters will take some convincing, and there will be a lot of pressure on Gotze, especially in the first few games. He should be commended for facing that music and not taking the easy way out with a transfer abroad.

One could argue that Tuchel's first season in charge should already have bought the Black and Yellows enough leeway to bring one of Europe's most talented players in, regardless of his baggage.

However, with fan favourites such as Neven Subotic and Jakub Blaszczykowski out of favour, the return of a player many consider to be a traitor for leaving for the enemy three years ago will only be under more scrutiny.

In that regard, the transfer is a crucial test of the marriage between club and supporters. Dortmund's fans are among the most passionate in world football, and this is their chance to prove that no one man is bigger than the club.

Lars Pollmann also writes for YellowWallPod.com. You can follow him on Twitter.