Realistic Expectations for Boston Celtics Rookie Jaylen Brown in 2016-17
While it was clear who'd go top-two in 2016's NBA draft, the Boston Celtics' selection of Jaylen Brown at No. 3 was unexpected.
Between the trade rumors and general manager Danny Ainge's reported interest in Providence point guard Kris Dunn, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski (h/t NESN.com)—along with the fact Brown's one-and-done season at California yielded mixed results—the pick raised a few eyebrows.
Even Brown said he wasn't sure he would be selected at that spot, per Kyle Hightower of the Associated Press (via WWLTV.com):
"I had no idea, I promise you I had no idea. I was actually sweating bullets when the final seconds came in. But I knew they were heavily interested when they asked me to come back for a second workout. But you hear different things every day. But I'm glad to be here, and I think it's the right fit.
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"It was a tough choice. A lot of good players at [No.] 3," Ainge said, per Hightower. "But unanimously, a lot of people really liked Brown."
Brown flashed upside and explosiveness, averaging 21.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per 40 minutes as a freshman. Plus, he aces the NBA-wing eye test at 6'7", 225 pounds with world-class athletic ability.
However, a number of holes in his game were also exposed, specifically an overall skill level that suggests a lengthy developmental timetable.
Despite an NBA body and bounce, he only shot 43.1 percent from the floor and 29.4 percent from the three-point line while totaling more turnovers (105) than assists (68). He also finished the year in a brutal slump that saw him shoot just 5-of-29 in three postseason games, including a four-point effort during the team's NCAA tournament loss to Hawaii.
It's the long-term upside that swayed Ainge to pull the trigger on a teenager with correctable weaknesses and unteachable gifts. The question is: How will Brown fit short-term with a team looking to compete today?
Team Fit
With Jae Crowder at small forward, Brown looks poised to start the year on the bench. "Time will tell," head coach Brad Stevens said in reference to Brown's role as a rookie, per MassLive's Jay King:
"He's 19. The bottom line is I'm watching a lot of the 19-year-olds get more comfortable as the games go on, but none of them are knocking people's socks off right out of the gate. Obviously he's got a great deal of talent. He's got a great deal to learn to be effective at this level, and we'll see. Time will tell.
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Brown will compete for minutes with James Young, who's proved nothing through two seasons in the league, and Jonas Jerebko, a veteran glue guy looking to build on a solid playoff showing.
In a lineup with scoring weapons at the 1, 2 and 5 positions, it's not unreasonable to think we'll see Stevens unleash a Brown-Crowder pairing in stretches at the 3 and 4 spots. Two strong, quick forwards capable of matching up with shooting guards, wings or small-ball 4s would offer defensive versatility, physicality and speed.
Brown, who is a monster in transition thanks to a combination of power, agility and springs, should also embrace Boston's uptempo pace, which ranked third in the NBA last season, per ESPN.com's Hollinger Stats. If there is one thing we can be sure he can give the Celtics as a rookie, it's the ability to put pressure on the rim and pick up easy open-floor points.
However, there are also a number of questions concerning both his fit and individual development—especially after an summer league debut that validated weaknesses on his scouting report.
Concerns
Brown's physical tools are far ahead of his offense. He averaged 16 points per game in summer league as a top option playing 29 minutes a game. But he also missed 50 of his 74 field-goal attempts and dished out just eight assists over six contests.
He struggles to create quality shots for himself or open ones for teammates, which is likely to limit his isolation and ball-screen touches.
Brown should wind up playing mostly off the ball—only he isn't an accurate spot-up shooter, either. He finished 5-of-22 from three in summer league after a poor year shooting in college and won't offer much in the half court.
The problem: Boston finished 28th last year in three-point percentage and didn't do much beyond Al Horford's arrival to address it in free agency. Will the Celtics get enough scoring and shot-making in a rotation where Brown, Avery Bradley, Marcus Smart, Crowder, Amir Johnson and Jerebko all play regular minutes?
Expectations
Brown should beat out Young on the depth chart and do most of his damage as a fast-break weapon and slasher off the bench. Bank on him also emerging as a tough, promising defender.
Occasionally, we'll see flashes of pull-up, step-back and fadeaway jumpers. And he's bound to make an open three-pointer every other game or so.
The flashes will illuminate Brown's offensive potential. In the meantime, expect inconsistency, erratic shooting, questionable decisions and fluctuating playing time. He's a project who'll be mostly used for his athleticism and energy at both ends in 2016-17.
Complete Stat Predictions
- Minutes: 21.0
- Points: 8.5
- Rebounds: 4.5
- Assists: 1.0
- Field-goal percentage: 0.39
- Three-point percentage: 0.26
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