Realistic Expectations for LA Clippers Rookie Brice Johnson in 2016-17
It took four years for Brice Johnson to sell himself as a first-round NBA talent.
After three frustratingly inconsistent seasons at North Carolina, his final year was anything but. Johnson broke out his senior season and helped lead the Tar Heels to the national title game.
Given the win-now state of the Los Angeles Clippers and their limited frontcourt depth, coach Doc Rivers' interest in Johnson—a 22-year-old first-team All-American power forward—comes as no shock.
"We're happy he was there [pick No. 25]," Rivers told the Los Angeles Times' Broderick Turner. "I don't know if we were surprised or not. That was a guy we liked from the very beginning.
"We like the fact that we believe he has a chance to help right away. But we all feel like he has a high ceiling and he can get a lot better."
It became necessary to start taking Johnson seriously following a 39-point, 23-rebound eruption at Florida State on Jan. 4. He kept the pressure on after that, particularly when it counted; Johnson went for at least 20 points and 10 boards in three straight NCAA tournament games.
Always known for his bounce, Johnson backed up his athleticism with offensive production in 2015-16, raising his scoring average to 17 points from 12.9.
From an NBA standpoint, it's Johnson's 87.5 percent finishing clip at the rim, per Hoop-Math.com, and 14.8 boards per 40 minutes the Clippers will deem most attractive. Johnson specializes around the basket and will enter his rookie year with a defined role.
Team Fit
Johnson fills a need in L.A. The only true bigs behind Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are Marreese Speights and Branden Dawson, with 19-year old fellow rookie Diamond Stone seeming like more of a long-term project.
Rivers can call on Johnson for immediate energy, activity and easy buckets. The fewer decisions he has to make and plays he has to create, the better. Though capable in the post, at this stage of his development, Johnson's best reacting off the ball rather than settling for in-the-key fallaways.
Thus, the Clippers will use him as a finishing target off guard penetration and screen-and-rolls. He'll also give L.A. free points off putbacks and transition opportunities.
Rivers could even experiment with Johnson (6'10", 230 lbs) as a backup 5 in a small-ball second unit. His mobility and burst are light-years ahead of the heavier-footed Speights, and he doesn't give up ground under the boards.
Johnson's value gets a boost if he starts knocking down mid-range jumpers. He shot 78.3 percent from the line as a senior and has a confident stroke, though it's too early to call him a reliable threat outside the paint. He'll ignite hope by showing he can connect from 20 feet, but don't count him emerging as a big scorer early on.
Concerns
Johnson has had trouble in the past channeling his passion. Tar Heels coach Roy Williams benched him in college, and he received technical fouls. It's worth noting, considering the Clippers led the league last year in technicals. When speaking with NBA TV, Rivers called out Johnson's body language during his first summer-league contest.
Johnson also racked up a whopping 31 personal fouls (6.2 per game) and 25 turnovers through five games in Orlando, which highlights a lack of discipline. He doesn't figure to be an asset in rim protection or pick-and-roll coverage, either, lacking strength below the basket and lateral quickness away from it.
The fact that Rivers hasn't had much success developing his rookies is also unsettling. From Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo in Boston to Reggie Bullock and C.J. Wilcox in L.A., players entering the league have struggled to flourish under him, as he's been reluctant to allow younger prospects to play through mistakes.
Expectations
The coach's track record suggests Johnson will have to earn his minutes early on. But unless the Clippers sign another backup or play Luc Mbah a Moute and Wesley Johnson at the 4, Rivers may be have room to make his first-round rookie a rotational reserve.
Expect occasional flashes of back-to-the-basket spins, fadeaways in the post and spot-up shooting inside the arc. But for the most part, he'll only be asked to run through the motions of the offense and catch-and-finish off cuts, dives, rolls and fast breaks.
Johnson's impact will be felt in stretches off the bench when the lineup needs a jolt of bounce. The key for him this year will be keeping his focus sharp and his motor charged.
Don't expect big numbers in 2016-17; rather, count on his liveliness and explosion translating to above-the-rim highlights and interior activity. He'll be used as a 10- to 15-minute energizer.
Complete Stat Predictions
- Minutes: 12.0
- Points: 5.0
- Rebounds: 4.0
- Assists: 0.3
- Field-goal percentage: 50.0
- Blocks: 0.5
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