Realistic Expectations for Detroit Pistons Rookie Henry Ellenson in 2016-17
Henry Ellenson had a lot going for him heading into the 2016 NBA draft.
He's productive, consistent, blatantly skilled and still 19 years old. He also identifies as one of the league's most coveted types: a stretch big man. Alarms wouldn't have sounded had someone taken Ellenson in the top 10.
"He was a guy we had as basically no chance to get to No. 18, so we didn't bring him in for a workout," coach Stan Van Gundy said, per the Detroit News' Rod Beard. "We loved him and everything (all our scouts) had seen. He was a guy we didn't think we had a shot at."
His slide into the late teens can only be traced to one obvious flaw: Ellenson lacks quickness and explosiveness. According to Seth Davis of Campus Rush, one scout referred to him as a "woeful athlete."
Ellenson is mobile, just not fast or bouncy, which raises questions concerning his potential to execute against NBA-caliber bigs. On the other hand, one could argue he's the most polished scorer among 4s or 5s in the draft class. Only once did he fail to reach double figures in points his freshman year. He went for 20 points 10 times.
At 6'11", 245 pounds with a 7'2 ¼" wingspan, Ellenson has NBA-center size with three-point range (30 makes), a mid-range stroke (42.7 percent on two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com) and post game (0.97 points per play in back-to-the-basket situations, per DraftExpress' Mike Schmitz). He also established himself as a credible rebounder, having averaged 9.7 boards and racking up 18 double-doubles.
But he isn't known for defense, which could stand in the way of rookie minutes with Van Gundy in Detroit.
Team Fit
The Pistons could view Ellenson as an interchangeable big man capable of playing power forward or center. The fact he'll initially be coming off the bench—a unit currently led by still-unproven Stanley Johnson—makes the debate over his position less important. Detroit could use an additional player capable of creating his own shot and making the open ones outside.
While Andre Drummond gives Detroit's starting lineup power and athleticism around the rim, Van Gundy could experiment with Ellenson as a backup 5 against small-ball second units. Compared to Drummond, Aron Baynes and Boban Marjanovic, Ellenson could give the lineup a more open look with face-up offense and the ability to stretch the floor, depending on the opponent.
Ellenson will also compete for time with newly added Jon Leuer, who'll have the edge to start. But over the next two-to-three seasons, the realistic hope is that Ellenson, whose ceiling is higher than both Leuer's and Baynes', will emerge as a sixth-man-type scorer.
Unfortunately, Ellenson isn't ready to be a dependable three-point shooter. And considering he plays mostly below the rim, expect inefficiency in his rookie year.
Concerns
The recent signings of Leuer and Marjanovic make it difficult to envision early playing time for Ellenson. With Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris each having averaged at least 32 minutes a game in 2015-16, it would likely take an injury or a slumping reserve for the rookie to see regular action.
Ellenson's defensive questions also won't earn him time any sooner. One steal per 40 minutes, a 4.4 percent block rate, according to Sports-Reference.com, and clumsy lateral footwork raise skepticism. He doesn't project as a rim protector, and opposing offenses will be quick to target him in isolation and the pick-and-roll game.
While it hurts his chances of cracking Detroit's rotation as a rookie, having a one-way label could also damage his overall value in the long term. Plus, with the Pistons looking to win now and Harris and Morris each under contract until 2019, the other fear is that seasons will go by and Ellenson will never get a chance to develop.
Expectations
We've already seen in summer league why Ellenson's athletic limitations could be problematic. He shot just 31 percent through five games and in 147 minutes totaled one assist, one steal and two blocks.
Van Gundy is likely to trust Leuer, Baynes and Marjanovic out of the gate, which could force Ellenson to either watch from the sidelines or play in the NBA Development League.
But during the expected 82-plus-game season, opportunities will come. At some point, the Pistons will likely need a new injection of offense behind Drummond, Harris and Morris. Ellenson has the potential to provide it, but expect it to come in sporadic spurts and flashes during Year 1.
Complete 2016-17 Stat Predictions
- Minutes: 12.0
- Points: 5.0
- Rebounds: 3.0
- Assists: 0.5
- Field-goal percentage: .420
- Three-point percentage: .265
- Blocks: 0.3
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
