Teams Most Likely to Produce 2016 Heisman Finalists

We're smack dab in the middle of “Watch List” season—that portion of college football's preseason when nearly all of the national awards organizers release early lists of players they're considering for their honor. The one trophy that noticeably abstains from this practice is the biggest of them all: the Heisman.

There's really no need for the Heisman folks to do so, though, since we in the media are so quick to come up with our own contender lists. This starts moments after the previous winner is announced and continues throughout the offseason and into the season, becoming a weekly practice right up until the finalists are announced in early December.

We're jumping ahead to that announcement, looking at the schools that are most likely to have players included among the finalists. There should be between three and six players invited to New York City for the Heisman ceremony, but our list of possible schools features 12. Some are based on the top players they have—and whether they're on early Heisman odds lists, such as the one released by Odds Shark—and others are mentioned for their history of producing finalists.

Alabama Crimson Tide

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Top candidates: WR Calvin Ridley, RB Bo Scarbrough, TBD QB

No school has had more players invited to New York in the last decade than Alabama, which has had a representative five times since 2006. In addition to winners Derrick Henry and Mark Ingram, the Crimson Tide have had a quarterback (A.J. McCarron), running back (Trent Richardson) and wide receiver (Amari Cooper).

That's no guarantee the Tide will be included among the finalists again this year, but it does mean that any players who break out as stars in 2016 figure to be in the mix. That includes whoever wins the quarterback job, since previous first-time starters Blake Sims and Jake Coker received some Heisman buzz along the way, though neither finished in the top 10 in voting.

Calvin Ridley has the top early odds of any Alabama player, sitting at 25-1 in Odds Shark's most recent update. He's coming off a freshman season in which he outpaced what Cooper did in his first year of college, and further improvement will put him in the running to be the Tide's second wideout in three years to go to New York City.

Not to be forgotten is Henry's successor at running back. Bo Scarbrough might end up splitting carries with Damien Harris, but if he were to emerge as a clear No. 1 option in the backfield, he'd garner consideration.

Clemson Tigers

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Top candidates: QB Deshaun Watson, RB Wayne Gallman

Deshaun Watson became Clemson's first Heisman finalist last season, finishing third, which puts him in great position to make a repeat appearance in 2016. Quarterbacks tend to be the returning finalists who have the best chance to get a second invite to New York, as Johnny Manziel, Andrew Luck and Tim Tebow were the last three to do so.

But it's more than just trends that puts Watson in line to make the final group again. There's also the fact he's coming off the first-ever season with 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards as he helped the Tigers reach the national title game, and Clemson is again a College Football Playoff favorite thanks to its explosive offense.

That unit includes other players who could make it to New York, such as Wayne Gallman or top receivers Artavis Scott and Mike Williams, though likely only if Watson were to fall out of contention. USC was the last school to have multiple Heisman finalists. In 2005, Reggie Bush won the award (though later had his Heisman stripped because of NCAA violations), and Matt Leinart was third.

Florida State Seminoles

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Top candidate: RB Dalvin Cook

Dalvin Cook is Florida State's first running back to have back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons since Warrick Dunn did it three years in a row in the mid-1990s. With another 1,291 yards, Cook will surpass Dunn as the Seminoles' career yardage leader.

That's production that Cook had by early November last season and probably would have had sooner had injuries not slowed him down early. He's dealing with further ailments, having undergone shoulder surgery in the spring, but will again be the focal point of the FSU offense.

The Seminoles don't want him to be the only weapon, but they know they can turn to him whenever needed. If this is parlayed into another ACC title and a playoff bid, he's going to have a good shot to be FSU's first Heisman finalist since Jameis Winston won it all in 2013.

"Cook doesn’t need to be in front of the pack, rather enter with consideration and let his play propel his candidacy," Jason Hall of TodaysU.com wrote. "If he can continue the output of his first two seasons, he will remain a legitimate contender to win the award in December."

Georgia Bulldogs

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Top candidates: RB Nick Chubb, QB Jacob Eason

Despite a major knee injury that knocked him out of half of last season and most offseason activities, Nick Chubb has the eighth-best odds on Odds Shark's list at 14-1. That speaks to the talent he is, the assumption he'll be able to rebound from the injury and Heisman prognosticators' increasing desire to pick out so-called dark-horse candidates.

Chubb wouldn't normally qualify for that designation had he not gotten hurt. Instead, he'd be a favorite in 2016 and would have been so in 2015 as well. He had the fifth-best odds as late as Oct. 5, right before going down against Tennessee. He topped the 100-yard mark in his first five games last season and has had at least 100 rushing yards in 13 games in which he's been able to play from kickoff to final whistle.

Georgia might also have one of the best shots to produce the first true freshman Heisman finalist since 2004 (Oklahoma's Adrian Peterson) in Jacob Eason. He's not been officially named the starting quarterback, but if that happens and he has instant success—similar to what Josh Rosen did last year at UCLA—the added exposure of the SEC will give him a chance to make history.

LSU Tigers

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Top candidate: RB Leonard Fournette

Leonard Fournette's Heisman chances, much like they did in 2015, hinge on what everyone else does around him. For a while last year, it didn't seem like that would be the case, as the one-man wrecking crew was steamrolling defenses and was the overwhelming Heisman leader during the first half of the season.

Then, suddenly, he wasn't. Not after the Tigers lost three consecutive games and his production took a dramatic dip, the product of tougher opponents stacking the line of scrimmage to stop him and no other offensive players stepping up to make defenses honest.

LSU is determined not to fall in the same trap again, which could mean reduced touches for Fournette and thus lower overall numbers. But if that comes in exchange for wins and a run to the playoffs, it won't hurt his Heisman resume one bit.

"This year, LSU—my prediction from January—has the talent to come up with the nation’s best team, and Fournette will be the signature guy," Campus Insiders' Pete Fiutak wrote.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

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Top candidates: QB DeShone Kizer, QB Malik Zaire

With a wide-open quarterback competition that could go either way, neither DeShone Kizer nor Malik Zaire is on most early Heisman lists. That figures to change once one gets named the starter and especially so if the job remains in one player's hands all season.

Notre Dame quarterback is one of the most frequently honored positions in Heisman history, with four of the school's six winners playing QB for the Fighting Irish. Their most recent finalist was a defensive player, though, with linebacker Manti Te'o finishing second in 2012.

Because of Notre Dame's major national profile, its top players are always going to be considered for the Heisman. That also means if Josh Adams puts together a big rushing year or someone shines on defense, their names will also get mentioned as possible finalists.

Ohio State Buckeyes

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Top candidate: QB J.T. Barrett

For most programs, bringing back only six starters would make it seem quite difficult to be considered a playoff contender yet again. But Ohio State gets the benefit of the doubt because of how well it has recruited under Urban Meyer and because one of those returners is arguably the most important player on the team.

J.T. Barrett is the unquestioned veteran leader of an otherwise young and inexperienced Buckeyes team. He started every regular-season game as a redshirt freshman and probably deserved to do the same in 2015 but was stuck in a prolonged competition with Cardale Jones for much of the year. Though he's not the only player who has to excel this season for Ohio State to get back into the playoffs, he's the one who has to stand out from the pack.

And, by virtue, he'd be solidifying his case as not just a Heisman finalist but maybe the favorite as the season goes on.

"This is a player who's already proved capable of doing it all, as evidenced by his fifth-place Heisman voting finish as a redshirt freshman in 2014," Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod wrote.

Oklahoma Sooners

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Top candidates: QB Baker Mayfield, QB Samaje Perine

Odds Shark's Heisman favorites list isn't comprehensive, but 15 is a fair number of candidates to consider prior to the start of the 2016 season. And only Oklahoma is represented more than once among those top 15, with both Baker Mayfield and Samaje Perine getting nods.

With two strong candidates this early on, it makes the Sooners' chances of having someone among the finalists as good as any other school in the country. It could also hurt their shot of having the winner, though, because Heisman voters could be torn between the two, and they would thus cancel each other out.

The most recent example of this might be in 2011, when Wisconsin had two players make the top 10 in quarterback Russell Wilson (ninth) and running back Montee Ball (fourth). Many voters might have chosen not to pick either player because they couldn't choose between the two, though the Badgers fell out of the national championship picture midway through the season, and that also had an impact.

Oklahoma figures to be in the playoff hunt all year long, and early games against Houston and Ohio State can help further that cause. It can also help give Mayfield, Perine or both some strong early Heisman buzz.

Ole Miss Rebels

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Top candidate: QB Chad Kelly

One of just three senior quarterbacks certain to be starting for their teams in the SEC, Chad Kelly is also looking like the league's best hope for a passer to go to New York in December. That position has comprised six of the SEC's 13 finalists in the past decade, but that includes repeat invites to Tim Tebow and Johnny Manziel.

Ole Miss hasn't had a player finish in the top 10 in voting (let alone have a Heisman finalist) since Eli Manning was third in 2003. Kelly has already broken several of Manning's school records, and if he gets a few more this season—or tops his own marks—then the Rebels will be represented.

Helping Kelly's cause, but not necessarily his team's chance of winning the SEC or making the playoffs, is Ole Miss' lack of a defined run game. Kelly had 10 rushing touchdowns last year, twice as many as leading rusher Jaylen Walton, and more of the same is expected this fall. That means Kelly will have to do a lot himself, which will lend itself again to big numbers.

Oregon Ducks

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Top candidate: RB Royce Freeman

Marcus Mariota won the 2014 Heisman, and since then, all talk related to Oregon has been its overdependence on FCS quarterbacks. This has managed to overshadow some dominant running by Royce Freeman, who ran for 1,365 yards as a true freshman and topped that with 1,836 yards last season. Along the way, he's scored 35 rushing touchdowns and averaged more than six yards per carry.

Oregon is a perennial player in the Pac-12 and thus will always have its best players on the Heisman radar. All Freeman needs is for his team to have a solid quarterback to help balance the offense, which enables him to show off his pass-catching skills, and he'll be among the top candidates from the western half of the country.

Stanford Cardinal

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Top candidate: RB Christian McCaffrey

Stanford is home to last year's Heisman runner-up, which, based on past history, bodes well for Christian McCaffrey's chances to get invited to New York again. The last three second-place finishers who returned to college finished no worse than third the following season, including Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck in 2011.

Whether McCaffrey can move from second in 2015 to first this year will depend as much on how the rest of the field performs as it will on how he follows up his monster junior season. He set the FBS record for all-purpose yards by a wide margin by rushing for more than 2,000 yards while being the Cardinal's top receiver and primary return man.

"If Christian McCaffrey can stay healthy and perform like he did last season, and build upon that, the Heisman Trophy is his," Michael Berns of EndZoneScore.com wrote.

Stanford has produced the second-most Heisman finalists since 2000 with four, trailing only Alabama.

UCLA Bruins

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Top candidate: QB Josh Rosen

Josh Rosen entered college with a ton of hype and did his best to live up to expectations. His true freshman season was very good but still had some hiccups, as you'd expect from a first-year player. As a result, any thought he'd be the first true freshman finalist since Adrian Peterson in 2004 fizzled down the stretch.

It didn't help that his team couldn't win big games, which is as important to a player's Heisman hopes as his individual performance.

Odds Shark's Justin Hartling noted that the last seven quarterbacks to win the Heisman averaged 3,910 yards with a 68.1 percent completion rate along with 36.5 touchdowns. They also averaged more than 800 rushing yards and 15 rushing TDs, numbers that aren't realistic for a pro-style passer such as Rosen.

That's going to force Rosen to put up some huge passing numbers to account for the lack of a run element. Combine that with a Pac-12 title, and Rosen will be the Bruins' first Heisman finalist since Cade McNown in 1998.

All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted. All statistics provided by CFBStats, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.