NBA Free Agents 2016: Rumors and Predictions for Remaining Available Talent
NBA free agency is not a place for patience.
In other major American sports, it's prudent to wait out the early signing sprees and locate bargains amid the remnants. This formula doesn't work in a star-driven league where most of the top available players agree to deals during the first week.
The few remaining dominoes still standing fell once Kevin Durant announced his league-altering decision to join the Golden State Warriors on Monday on the Players' Tribune. Now it's mostly a matter of role players finding roster spots, but one future Hall of Famer still looms large.
With most of the biggest questions answered, let's examine the chatter surrounding a few free agents still on the market.
With LeBron James staying with the Cleveland Cavaliers seeming like a certainty, Dwyane Wade remains this class' lone remaining available star. Contentious talks with the Miami Heat could cause a nasty separation.
According to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski, Miami "deeply angered" its superstar by making him an initial offer with a $10 million annual value. (Austin Rivers will make more for the Los Angeles Clippers, per ESPN.com.) Despite Miami doubling the offer to two years and $40 million, per the Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman, Wade still wants more.
ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst reported the 34-year-old guard's desire to make at least $50 million over two years. According to Wojnarowski, Wade has made receiving a guaranteed third year a "priority." The Denver Nuggets and Chicago Bulls remain active suitors with the ability to meet his financial demands.
The Nuggets can't offer championship aspirations, but they will present Wade a massive check, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
A lack of funds may motivate him to leave Miami, where he has spent his entire 13-year career. Yet this story took an odd turn when Jordan Schultz of the Huffington Post threw the Cavaliers in the mix:
Wade's friendship with James and a hunger to build another superteam to match Golden State would have to heavily influence the three-time champion. The Miami Herald's Ethan J. Skolnick examined how a Wade-James reunion could happen:
"And yes, joining LeBron James in Cleveland is an option. Among a few still, and “a long shot” due to the economics, according to a source, but definitely an option. The Cavaliers don’t currently have anything other than the taxpayer midlevel to offer ($3.48 million), which would be a huge reduction in pay. So they would need to make multiple deals to accommodate more salary. Or James would need to take a historically large cut, which wouldn’t sit well with the players’ union, but maybe he doesn’t care about that. He repeatedly told me, when I was covering the Cavaliers during the 2014-15 season, how much he missed Wade. That might be priceless.
"
So Wade is going to take a massive pay cut to spite Miami, whom he reportedly resents after it didn't offer him enough money? And no, a team's Twitter account following a player, per ESPN, doesn't count as a binding contract.
He wouldn't push Denver over the hump, and he's an odd fit for a Bulls organization rebuilding around Jimmy Butler. Mending his relationship with Miami makes the most sense, and the Heat can't afford to let the face of their franchise walk.
Prediction: Wade signs three-year, $60 million deal with Miami Heat
Lance Stephenson
Timing is everything. If the NBA's cap spiked two years ago, Lance Stephenson would have cashed in on a promising breakout season. Instead, he's looking for someone to take a chance.
He has struggled mightily since leaving the Indiana Pacers, prompting the Charlotte Hornets to trade him to the Los Angeles Clippers, who shipped him to the Memphis Grizzlies. The polarizing perimeter player averaged 8.2 points in 2014-15 in Charlotte and 8.3 last year.
Despite the fact Stephenson turned things around in Memphis—where he recorded 14.2 points per game on a 47.4 field-goal percentage—the Grizzlies did not exercise their $9.4 million club option.
Talented 25-year-olds won't come much cheaper in this market, so Stephenson shouldn't have to take much of a salary cut. Of course, he must first find someone who values his defensive energy enough to tolerate his poor perimeter shooting.
How about the team that drafted him? According to the Indianapolis Star's Nate Taylor, both Stephenson and Indiana are interested in a reunion.
“That’s home for him,” a source told Taylor. “He absolutely loves the town and the organization.”
Stephenson played his best basketball with the Pacers, who seem to have a thing for athletes with imperfect shooting skills. Indiana should target someone who can space the court, but team president Larry Bird hasn't made that a top priority.
Prediction: Stephenson signs three-year, $25 million deal with Indiana Pacers
Caron Butler
Per The Vertical's Shams Charania, the Sacramento Kings tossed veteran small forward Caron Butler into the open market on Monday:
The 36-year-old won't incite a bidding war after averaging 3.7 points and 1.3 rebounds in severely limited playing time last season. In 176 total minutes, he drained three three-pointers.
Yet someone will bite on Butler, who has played for seven different teams over the past seven seasons. According to Wojnarowski, he could return to the franchise that drafted him with the 10th overall pick 14 years ago:
Butler spent his first two years in South Beach, registering 15.4 points per game during his rookie campaign. If they bring back Wade, the Heat will have little cap space to fill out their top-heavy roster. They can't be too picky about their bench signings, and Butler can't expect to reap the rewards of the league's rising revenue.
His best-case scenario is having a Richard Jefferson-like impact on a contender. He could instead, however, land on a rebuilding club needing a veteran leader to help mold a youthful roster.
Miami lies somewhere in the middle, as he can mentor young wings Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson while the Heat take another crack at reaching the Eastern Conference Finals.
Prediction: Butler signs one-year deal with Miami Heat for veteran minimum
