University Of Kentucky Football Fans Making Unrealistic Comparisons

Some unrealistic and impatient UK football fans are frustrated that their Wildcats haven't already become the next Virginia Tech, or better.  Cat fans have seen other non-traditional football powers build very successful programs over the last 20 years, and they don't understand why it hasn't yet happened here.

Don't get me wrong, most fans are truly thankful for the success that head coach Rich Brooks has had in his six-plus seasons at UK.  After all, under Brooks, UK has won three straight bowl games for the first time in the program's history, beaten a No. 1 ranked team (LSU in 2007), won 16 straight non-conference games, beaten traditional power Georgia, and has a three-game winning streak over hated instate rival Louisville. 

However, fresh off an embarrassing loss to No. 1 ranked Florida, where the Wildcats looked both intimidated and unprepared, some UK fans are openly wondering if Brooks is capable of taking UK to that "next level."

Virginia Tech's rise over the last 20 years is the model many fans expect Brooks to live up to.  Prior to Frank Beamer's arrival at Blacksburg, the Hokies had very little positive football history.  Beamer's Hokies have now been to 16 straight bowl games (including six BCS bowls), won five conference championships, and they've won 10 or more games in eight of the last 10 seasons.

This is not a good comparison and is a recipe for continued frustration.  As was pointed out recently by Matt Jones at KentuckySportsRadio.com, UK lacks the local talent base that most other good teams enjoy, and two-thirds of its games are against members of undoubtedly the strongest football conference in America.  Jones took some heat from fans for saying that these barriers would keep UK from ever becoming a top 10 program.

Let's look at the Virginia Tech comparison more closely.  The state of Virginia produces roughly twice as many BCS-caliber players as does the state of Kentucky (statistics compiled by Andy Staples at CNNSI.com), and each state has the same number of BCS schools to fight for those recruits.  In fact, only the state of Arkansas produces fewer BCS players than Kentucky among states represented by SEC schools.

Furthermore, not a single one of the Hokies' ACC competitors could be considered a top 10 program over the last 10 years.  In the SEC, UK faces arguably four top 10 programs in Florida, Georgia, LSU, and now Alabama—not to mention the other quality programs in the conference.

Without the talent base and the number of winnable games on the schedule, I just don't see UK matching the Hokies' success.

A more reasonable comparison, based on instate talent, would be the Wisconsin Badgers.  Although the state of Wisconsin only produces about half the number of BCS-caliber players as does Kentucky, the Badgers don't have any other FBS football programs in the state to fight for those players.

Like the Hokies, Wisconsin had very little football tradition prior to the arrival of Barry Alvarez in 1990.  The Badgers have now been to 14 bowl games in the last 16 seasons, including three Rose Bowl appearances.  Alvarez led the Badgers to their first ever 10-win season in 1993, and they've had four other 10+ win seasons since then—including a school record 12 wins in 2006 under Bret Bielema, Alvarez's hand-picked successor.

However, this comparison still has the issue of strength of schedule.  As has been made painfully obvious in the last few seasons (or gleefully obvious if you're an SEC fan) the talent in the Big 10 is clearly a step down from the SEC.  With this in mind, duplicating the success the Badgers have enjoyed still might be a stretch for the UK football program.

The bottom line is that it is extremely difficult to build a program from within the SEC, especially in the state of Kentucky.  Look at South Carolina.  The state of South Carolina produces almost twice as much talent as Kentucky, with the same number of BCS schools.  The Gamecocks have tried as hard as anyone in the last 10 years to climb the SEC ladder.  They have hired two coaches, Lou Holtz and Steve Spurrier; both have won a national championship, and both is/will be in the College Football Hall of Fame.  And yet, neither of these Hall of Famers has been able to lead USC to a single 10-win season.

Does this mean that UK fans should be content with mediocrity, with being embarrassed by the Gators on national TV, or with having lost 24 and 22 straight games to Tennessee and Florida, respectively?  Absolutely not!  But it does mean that the fans should stop setting unrealistic expectations that only lead to perpetual disappointment.

It also means that fans should show a little more patience.  In Beamer's first eight years at Virginia Tech, the Hokies suffered through four losing seasons, went to only two bowl games, and did not win more than nine games in any one season.  When Brooks was at Oregon, it took him 17 years to lead the Ducks to the Pac 10 championship and to the Rose Bowl—winning National Coach of the Year honors in 1994.

Although UK likely will never duplicate the success of Florida, Georgia, or even Virginia Tech, UK can continue to build on the success of the last three seasons.  To do that, the Wildcats must keep the Kentucky kids home and not lose them to Ohio State, Illinois, Alabama, etc.; they must continue to beat their non-conference opponents; and they must more consistently pick up another conference win from one of the other lower/middle tier teams in the SEC.

Brooks may be the man to lead UK football to the heights it realistically can reach.  He may not.  At this point, it is just too soon to judge.  But based on his accomplishments to date, Brooks deserves the chance to find out.