What's Next for 2016 Offseason After NBA Draft?
So, now what?
This year's NBA draft set the stage for what figures to be a tumultuous offseason. Prospects were reached for, others passed on. Logjams were created or intensified. Trades were made. More importantly, specific trades weren't made.
Everything that happened—or didn't happen—will play a direct role in shaping the storylines we follow this summer. These are some of the biggest.
Butler Is the New Cousins
Depending on what hour of the day it is, the Chicago Bulls either almost traded Jimmy Butler or didn't even think about moving him.
General manager Gar Forman did little to alleviate the confusion once everything died down Thursday night. Though he said the Bulls "were in no talks with anybody," he didn't exactly give Butler's future in Chicago a ringing endorsement, per ESPN.com's Marc Stein:
"You've got to keep an open mind. I think [Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations] John Paxson said it best when we met [with the media] in [April]. He was only around one guy in an 11-year career that was untradable, and that was Michael Jordan. I mean, you're always going to listen, but we value—and I've said this—we value Jimmy. We appreciate Jimmy. We think Jimmy is a heck of a basketball player. We love his work ethic. And for us to ever consider anything, it would have to be something that just absolutely knocked our socks off.
"
Perhaps this is Forman's (ineffective) way of fending off suitors. Or maybe he's just subtly telling the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves to up their antes.
Minnesota "aggressively pursued" Butler using fifth overall pick Kris Dunn, according to Stein. Boston apparently cobbled together an inadequate offer that was more appealing than the Timberwolves' pitch, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
The Bulls can spin this however they want. But after trading Derrick Rose, which suggests an extensive rebuild is on the horizon, it's open season for the Butler rumor mill—DeMarcus Cousins-style.
Cousins Is Still Cousins
Speaking of the Sacramento Kings' All-Star skyscraper, he was none too pleased with his team's draft-night decisions:
Cousins told Marc J. Spears of The Undefeated his tweet was about "a hot sculpting class," not the draft. But...come on.
After trading out of the No. 8 slot, Sacramento proceeded to select two centers in the first round. Yes, two: Georgios Papagiannis of Greece at No. 13 and Skal Labissiere from Kentucky at No. 28. Papagiannis in particular ranks as an incomprehensible reach; Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman had him 48th on his big board.
Neither of these first-round decisions makes any sense. Cousins and Willie Cauley-Stein, last year's sixth overall pick, are best suited to center. So, too, is backup big man Kosta Koufos.
The Kings, of course, are going to King, but they were never supposed to emulate the Philadelphia 76ers' cluttered frontcourt. Expect Cousins-centric trade rumors to reach fever pitch again this summer—if not because Sacramento has five centers, then because Cousins is actually at his wit's end.
Sixers to Be the Anti-Warriors(?)
Well, it's official. Philadelphia now employs five high-end prospects who stand 6'10" or taller: Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, Dario Saric and No. 1 pick Ben Simmons.
Rest in peace, floor spacing.
Look, the Sixers didn't have a choice. They needed to take Simmons. He has drawn comparisons to Draymond Green. You cannot pass on that upside.
And it's not like they didn't try to clear up their depth chart. They offered Noel, Robert Covington and the Nos. 24 and 26 selections for the Celtics' No. 3 pick, according to Stein. If that deal goes through, Philly has one less big man—albeit still too many—and is up one NBA-level point guard in Dunn.
The Sixers' frontcourt reconstruction will now spill into the summer. They cannot enter next season with this oversized platoon—not even if Saric unexpectedly stays in Turkey. Neither Simmons nor Saric should be forced to play much small forward, and the Noel-Okafor power forward experiment already proved to be a disaster.
Bank on Philadelphia aggressively shopping one or both of Noel and Okafor before 2016-17 tips off. Also look for it to overpay a point guard in free agency after missing out on Dunn.
Dunn vs. Rubio vs. Thibodeau
Selecting Dunn when he fell to No. 5 wasn't just a Butler-driven ploy by the Timberwolves. The Providence product topped president of basketball operations and head coach Tom Thibodeau's draft board, according to The Vertical's Adrian Wojnarowski—which means exactly what you think it does for Ricky Rubio:
Thibodeau, however, did not pigeonhole himself to choosing between Dunn and Rubio, telling reporters: "I think they have good size; they have good toughness. It's a different look. I think you're seeing that more and more now, where you have two point guards on the floor. They're both capable of playing off each other."
This is an ambitious claim at best, a whimsical fantasy at worst. David Kahn had the same vision for Rubio and Jonny Flynn in 2009. Look how that turned out.
Not one of Minny's two point men is known as an off-ball guard. While Dunn drilled 37.2 percent of his triples as a college senior, he put down just 29.6 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.com. Rubio converted only 32.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot looks in 2015-16 and has hit more than 33 percent of his treys just twice in five seasons.
Will the Timberwolves revisit dangling Dunn in a Butler trade? Should Rubio warm up to living in Milwaukee on the summertime chopping block?
Minnesota needn't work itself into a tizzy trying to break up this backcourt pairing. Dunn is an inbound rookie, so the situation isn't that dire. But with Tyus Jones and Zach LaVine on the roster, the Dunn-Rubio partnership isn't one that figures to last long.
PGs for Sale in Phoenix...Again
Here we go again, per Stein:
The Phoenix Suns did not move Eric Bledsoe or Brandon Knight on draft day. They actually added to their collection of guards, selecting Tyler Ulis, Devin Booker's former Kentucky teammate, at No. 34. Ulis, at 5'9", isn't a player for whom you break up the current duo, but Phoenix's dual-point guard experiment has run its course.
Bledsoe and Knight will combine to earn more than $26.6 million next season, which isn't obscene when factoring in the coming salary-cap explosion. But the Suns were offensive letdowns when the two shared the floor this past season, and it's a stretch to count on the 6'6" Booker surviving as a full-time small forward.
Plus, this summer's free-agent market isn't flush with talented floor generals. You can easily make the case for Deron Williams as a top-five free agent at his position. That's a problem.
Playmaking-poor teams (Sixers!) will gauge the availability of Bledsoe and Knight over the offseason, at which time Phoenix will hold all the leverage. Point guard may still be the league's deepest position (eh), but it's never been harder to acquire a quality solution. The Suns are in for a post-free agency bidding craze.
That Boston-Brooklyn Swap, Though
Sick of the Celtics' constantly churning rumor mill? You're not alone. It's exhausting to hear about them trying to trade for everyone under the sun, only for them to inevitably stand pat. Such inaction is even worse when they displace the blame for their dilly-dallying.
"We did not sniff a trade today," Boston owner Wyc Grousbeck said, per Celtics Blog's Jared Weiss. "It was a collection of rip-off attempts, and we laughed at them."
Here's to more of those, um, rip-off attempts.
Draft-night dormancy will not remove Boston from the trade-speculation fray. Jaylen Brown, the No. 3 pick, projects as an iffy fit since the Celtics already have so many tweeners who can't shoot (I'll miss you, Evan Turner), and the Brooklyn Nets' wheeling and dealing only makes Boston a more attractive rumor-mill staple.
Brooklyn sent Thaddeus Young to the Indiana Pacers for the No. 20 pick (Caris LeVert) in a good move for the future, but it came at the expense of wins in the present. The Celtics have the right to swap the Nets' 2017 first-rounder with their own, putting them on course for another top-three pick in a much deeper draft class.
Butler, Cousins, Gordon Hayward, Khris Middleton—those names, however far-fetched, aren't going away. Boston's timeline is no longer of the slow-and-steady ilk. It is trying to make a leap now. The Celtics' inability to mine superstar blockbusters ahead of the draft, coupled with the renewed mystique of that Brooklyn swap, should result in them assuming a hyper-aggressive approach after it.
Denver's Trade Proposals Are Going to Be Lit
Someone, anyone, get the Denver Nuggets to join the trade-rumor festivities. While we've been bowing down at the altar of Boston's treasure chest, the Nuggets have quietly built an asset-drunk monster.
Denver used two of its three first-round picks on Jamal Murray (No. 7) and Malik Beasley (No. 19), both of whom should crack next season's rotation—provided there's room, which there isn't.
Not including draft-and-stash candidate Juan Hernangomez (No. 15) or Axel Toupane's non-guaranteed deal, the Nuggets have as many as 13 players on their docket, all of whom belong in the NBA:
| Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Nikola Jokic |
| Jameer Nelson | Jamal Murray | Will Barton | JaKarr Sampson (non-guaranteed) | Jusuf Nurkic |
| Malik Beasley | Wilson Chandler | Joffrey Lauvergne |
Parts of the roster-wide logjam can be addressed by playing Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari at power forward, Denver's weakest position, and slotting Murray at point guard when Emmanuel Mudiay takes a seat. But that's a half-solution. The Nuggets need to make moves, preferably consolidating some of their assets into a headlining name.
Kenneth Faried is already up for grabs, according to the Sporting News' Sean Deveney. His broken jump shot and lackluster defense render him an awkward fit for today's frontcourts, but he has three years and $38.8 million left on a contract that looks like a bargain in the new cap climate.
Denver should also consider hijacking any existing superstar sweepstakes. Hell, it should create its own trade market. Marquee names needn't be officially available to tender proposals. The Nuggets have that kind of asset clout and, following Thursday's proceedings, must be prepared to wield it.
Position Designations Will Become Obsolete
Just two of the first 10 picks this year play a defined position: Dunn (point guard) and Jakob Poeltl (center). If Dunn stays in Minnesota with Rubio, his point guard designation goes out the window.
Sure, certain players make more sense at specific slots. Simmons should play far more power forward than small forward. Dragan Bender (No. 4) should end up being a center. Marquese Chriss (No. 8) is in the same boat as Simmons. But multiposition talents are becoming the standard.
Brandon Ingram (No. 2) will see time at small forward and power forward, and even shooting guard, for the Los Angeles Lakers. Jumper or no jumper, Brown is a combo forward because he'll defend just about anyone on the floor. Murray and Buddy Hield (No. 6) don't get selected in the top seven if they cannot soak up time at either guard spot.
It will be the same story in free agency. Pricey gambles will be made on combo wings and bigs. Single-position classifications are the past. The NBA has been trending this way for a while. The draft reinforced the progression, and the offseason will only carry it further.
The Kevin Durant Thing
For a while, with the Celtics sitting still, it looked as if draft night would go off without any potential Kevin Durant suitors throwing an offseason curveball. But the Oklahoma City Thunder struck, trading Serge Ibaka to the Orlando Magic for Ersan Ilyasova, Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, as first relayed by Wojnarowski.
Breaking up one of the NBA's best Big Threes isn't the strongest sales pitch. But, per Royce Young of ESPN.com, it's not a harbinger of Durant's departure, either:
This is more about the Thunder trying to ensure they can afford to keep the most important pieces of their core together. Ibaka and Russell Westbrook are both slated for free agency in 2017. Steven Adams is extension-eligible this offseason and could be a restricted free agent in one year's time. Same goes for Andre Roberson. Enes Kanter is already earning max-level money.
There is no way Oklahoma City can afford this nucleus long term, even with the new salary-cap structure. And with Adams blossoming into a frontcourt stud, Kanter locked up and Durant no stranger to playing power forward, Ibaka became disposable to a franchise that needed to make concessions anyway.
Still, there is the deja vu aspect of this ordeal to consider, as Warriors World's Sam Esfandiari pointed out:
Whether by choice or necessity, the Thunder keep encountering situations in which they turn key incumbent contributors into more cost-controlled assets. That perpetual state of uncertainty should at least play a small part in Durant's decision to stay or go.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise cited. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @danfavale.
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