The Toughest NBA Free Agents to Price on the 2016 Market
Some NBA free agents are easier to figure out than others.
Of course you should pay Kevin Durant all of the money (ditto for LeBron James if/when he opts out). So long as you're the Detroit Pistons, you shouldn't hesitate before handing Andre Drummond as large a contract as the collective bargaining agreement will allow.
Naturally, you should avoid spending too much of your cap space on known, ho-hum commodities such as Arron Afflalo, Kirk Hinrich and Anderson Varejao.
But what about the unknowns?
A handful of players have flashed high ceilings, but handing them a gaudy deal would be fraught with risk. They could easily become free-agency busts, leaving you saddled with albatross contracts throughout the foreseeable future. Buckle up, because you're about to learn which players have the largest discrepancies between their ceilings and floors.
Honorable Mentions
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Kent Bazemore, SF, Unrestricted
Was Kent Bazemore merely the product of the Atlanta Hawks' system? Head coach Mike Budenholzer has already displayed a knack for maximizing the talents of unheralded wing players (see: Carroll, DeMarre) with ball-sharing tactics and reliance on perimeter marksmanship, and this small forward could be the latest example of fool's gold.
Eric Gordon, SG, Unrestricted
There's no doubt Eric Gordon can shoot from downtown, but he's had trouble staying healthy throughout his time with the New Orleans Pelicans. If he can remain in working order while surrounded by more offensive talent, he could be a post-hype breakout candidate, blossoming into a poor man's version of the star he was supposed to become while suiting up for the Los Angeles Clippers.
Meyers Leonard, PF/C, Restricted
Plagued by injuries, a slow release and a shooting slump at the beginning of the year, Meyers Leonard failed to live up to sky-high expectations. But he's still just 24 years old, and big men who can knock down three-pointers, defend the rim and rebound with aplomb don't come around too often. That 50/40/90 dalliance from 2014-15 will still be fresh in many general managers' minds.
Evan Turner, SF, Unrestricted
Though he still couldn't knock down outside jumpers, Evan Turner found his niche with the Boston Celtics. He gifted head coach Brad Stevens some high-quality defense on the wings, showed the necessary versatility to play positionless basketball and made a positive impact on offense with his passing and driving abilities. But was that merely because Stevens alone could maximize the talents of this (now-former) draft bust?
Dion Waiters, SG, Restricted
Dion Waiters can score the basketball. Unfortunately, he usually requires plenty of shots to produce a meager point total and calls his own number far too often. General managers know how much talent is contained in his 6'4" frame, but they're also aware of how unpredictable the thing resting atop his shoulders can be.
Harrison Barnes
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Current Team: Golden State Warriors
Age: 24
Position: SF
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 11.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.2 blocks
Reasons to Gamble
Harrison Barnes seemed to have "star" written all over him when he left high school for North Carolina, and that stuck until the Golden State Warriors used the 2012 NBA draft's No. 7 selection on him. Even though he hasn't lived up to the hype, there's plenty of talent lying dormant, though that may only be true because he's taken a backseat to the Dubs' stars.
If Barnes didn't have to defer to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, would he look more like a max player? If he weren't asked to fill a smaller role, would the world know he could do far more than spot up for jumpers, rebound and defend?
Barnes is the ultimate high-upside gamble in this class, and it's not just because he has prototypical size (6'8", 210 lbs) and athleticism for a modern wing. The Warriors have continued to let him fill an important role but not enough that he's yet marginalized his enduring potential.
Reasons to Hesitate
As Kevin Draper pointed out for Deadspin, Barnes has stagnated:
"In Barnes' fourth season, he's largely the same player he was when he entered the league, albeit more polished. It's actually remarkable how little Barnes' game has changed. ...
This isn't to say Barnes is incapable of growth or improvement—the average player peaks around 27, and he is just 24—just that it will take meteoric rise in his game to get to the point that he's worth spending 25 percent of a team's salary cap on.
"
Barnes would be a late bloomer if he suddenly broke out, and that's a nerve-wracking proposition when the words "max contract" are evoked.
Bismack Biyombo
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Current Team: Toronto Raptors
Age: 23
Position: C
Type of Free Agency: Player option (will decline, per ESPN's Marc Stein)
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 5.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 1.6 blocks
Reasons to Gamble
During the Toronto Raptors' second-round matchup against the Miami Heat and the ensuing battle with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Bismack Biyombo showed just how impactful he could become.
Assuming a larger role in Jonas Valanciunas' absence, he averaged 8.2 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.1 blocks after moving into the starting lineup for 10 games while shooting 60.4 percent from the field.
His athleticism and relentless hustle made him a force on the glass. He protected the rim as well as possible and often deterred drives. He showed off improved touch around the basket, even if the Raptors remained hesitant to call his number in a planned set.
All that is why Stein reported Biyombo could fetch $15 million on the open market.
Reasons to Hesitate
Ten games isn't a large sample.
Throughout the regular season, Biyombo filled a smaller role. He gave Toronto quality production in his speciality areas, but he never came close to consistently making the impact he did during the second half of the playoff run.
No matter how good he is at defense and rebounding, the Congolese big man remains a one-way player. He has no idea how to pass out of double-teams, forces his squad into four-on-five situations and can become unplayable down the stretch when attempting to complete a comeback.
Allen Crabbe
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Current Team: Portland Trail Blazers
Age: 24
Position: SG/SF
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 10.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.2 blocks
Reasons to Gamble
Wings who can score are always coveted in the modern NBA, and Allen Crabbe proved he could do exactly that during his age-23 season. Not only did he serve as the Portland Trail Blazers' No. 3 scorer, but he also did so while knocking down 45.9 percent of his shots from the field and 39.4 percent of his three-point attempts.
The California product has continued to improve throughout his professional career, and 2015-16 functioned as his breakout campaign. He looked the part of an NBA rotation member—on a competitive squad, no less—and submitted a positive offensive box plus/minus for the first time.
Now, he'll be a tempting purchase for teams in dire need of scoring. He's skilled enough to take on more of a leading role, and bottom feeders could be eager to see whether he can produce even more impressive numbers when not ceding touches to both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
Plus, the price tag has to rise significantly in order to dissuade Rip City from matching the offer sheet.
Reasons to Hesitate
Crabbe was an unheralded second-round pick during 2013, and he's still made only 17 starts in Portland. His role has been small for much of his career, only growing once most of the incumbent talents departed for other organizations this past offseason.
Was he a fluke generated by the relative lack of established scouting reports? It's possible, and teams may not want to risk his regressing while he's under their control.
Crabbe's defense is also deterrent to a big payday. The defensive portion of NBA Math's total points added database had him ranked ahead of only 62 players in 2015-16, and ESPN.com's defensive real plus/minus placed him No. 85 among the league's 97 ranked shooting guards.
Terrence Jones
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Current Team: Houston Rockets
Age: 24
Position: PF
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 8.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.8 blocks
Reasons to Gamble
Terrence Jones thrived on both ends of the floor in 2014-15.
When he wasn't limited by injuries, he knocked down 35.1 percent of his shots from beyond the arc and averaged 15.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.7 steals and 1.8 blocks per 36 minutes. According to Nylon Calculus, he allowed opponents to shoot just 46.5 percent at the rim, which helped him save more points for the Houston Rockets than an average player at his position.
If teams hand this restricted free agent a contract large enough to make the Rockets hesitate, it'll be because they remember this version of Jones.
Reasons to Hesitate
In 2015-16, Jones struggled on both ends of the floor.
When he wasn't limited by injuries (yes, this is a trend), he saw his shooting percentages decline severely—his field-goal percentage and three-point percentage dropped 7.6 and 3.5 points, respectively.
The complete lack of confidence in his offensive abilities made it tougher for Houston to justify handing him a larger role, and it didn't help that he struggled defensively. NBA.com's SportVU data shows he let the opposition hit 51.6 percent of its shots at the basket.
If teams are hesitant to pay him a large sum, it's because this last season remains fresh in their minds.
Boban Marjanovic
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Current Team: San Antonio Spurs
Age: 27
Position: C
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 5.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.2 steals, 0.4 blocks
Reasons to Gamble
In addition to becoming a cult hero with his ginormous hands and unassuming personality, Boban Marjanovic actually produced while he was on the floor. The older rookie showed off soft touch around the basket, dunked mercilessly against smaller opponents, knocked down some mid-range jumpers and thrived on the defensive end. His player efficiency rating was a stunning 27.7—the highest PER produced by a rookie who logged over 500 minutes since Wilt Chamberlain.
"He's a good basketball player," Popovich told ESPN's Michael C. Wright in late December. "It's the NBA, and it's see if he can adjust to it; see what happens. He's a quick learner. Chad [Forcier] and Chip [Engelland] as usual have been working hard with him. Before practice, he comes every day; stays after practice or shootaround."
Based on the brief time he spent on the court, it sure seemed like he was capable of making the necessary adjustments.
Reasons to Hesitate
Marjanovic could very well be one of those players who only thrived because they were playing under the NBA's best coaching staff. The San Antonio Spurs' vaunted system helps cerebral contributors make immediate impacts, but it leaves open the possibility they could struggle if going elsewhere.
The 7'3" center still has just 508 NBA minutes under his belt, rendering most of his statistical achievements moot. For all the potential he flashed when receiving opportunities, much of the production came in garbage time against easier competition.
Marjanovic is intriguing, but he's one of the bigger gambles in this free-agent class—literally and metaphorically. It also doesn't help that he'll celebrate his 28th birthday in August, as many behemoths tend to operate on a shortened aging curve.
Donatas Motiejunas
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Current Team: Houston Rockets
Age: 25
Position: PF/C
Type of Free Agency: Restricted
2015-16 Per-Game Stats: 6.2 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.5 steals, 0.1 blocks
Reasons to Gamble
"D-Mo is the type of guy who can have an impact in so many different areas. He's skilled enough to pass. He's skilled enough to score. And he can knock down shots," former Houston Rockets interim head coach J.B. Bickerstaff explained to Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle. "He's a different type of threat on the floor."
Donatas Motiejunas now has four NBA seasons under his belt, but he's just 25 years old and has only been granted a significant rotation spot once. That came in 2014-15, when he averaged 12.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks for a significantly more competitive version of the Rockets.
Better still, he did so while shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from downtown.
The skills are there, and the right team could unlock them, turning this Lithuanian big man into a two-way asset who thrives when spacing the court for his running mates.
Reasons to Hesitate
The 2014-15 season is now nothing more than a distant memory, and Motiejunas' follow-up campaign offered far less excitement. He knocked down his treys at a meager 28.1 percent clip, struggled to finish plays inside the arc and regressed defensively to the point he was a significant liability.
According to NBA Math's TPA rankings, Motiejunas provided 48.93 fewer points than an average player on an average team, and that was despite playing only 37 games. Had he maintained that pace and suited up all 82 contests, his TPA would've beaten out only 21 players.
Couple that with persistent back injuries that eventually led to a failed physical preventing a trade, according to ESPN's Calvin Watkins, and lumbar microdiscectomy surgery, and it's not tough to see why the optimism is much more tempered in 2016 than one year prior.
Adam Fromal covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @fromal09.
Unless otherwise indicated, all stats are from Basketball-Reference.com or NBAMath.com.
