Why Von Miller Needs to Get More Guaranteed Money from the Broncos

The numbers in NFL contracts are mostly lying to you.

Let’s get that out of the way. All parties involved—the player, the team and, by extension, the fans—are pretty much agreeing to participate in a lie and use fluff as the foundation for a money castle.

But as the salary cap continues to rise each year, players are becoming less willing to play their part in the non-guaranteed cash dance. You're familiar with that shuffle, as it's when the total value of a contract comes with monstrous, often meaningless dollar figures.

Denver Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller is the latest, most significant player to sit in a chair with his arms folded, demanding to be guaranteed what he’s worth. And he's right to do so.

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

The high-stakes game of contract chess playing out between the Super Bowl 50 MVP and a team built around a smothering, league-leading defense that can’t live without him has turned toward guaranteed money.

Which is also known as the only part of a contract that carries meaning.

The total value of a deal isn’t devoid of significance, but it’s damn close. How much—and what percentage—of that sweet, sweet cash is guaranteed to find a home in the player’s pocket dwarfs the weight of those gaudy numbers your jaw drops over.

That is why, according to a series of tweets from NFL Network’s Rand Getlin, the franchise-tagged Miller has looked at the deal Denver slid across the table and responded with a shoulder shrug. Here are the terms:

Miller's reaction is the only reasonable one from someone of his stature, considering the lack of guaranteed money. If Hillary Clinton’s social media team were conducting his contract negotiations, he would have responded with the thinking-face emoji.

Miller has accepted the overall contract terms, according to Getlin’s report, which means he’s really accepted nothing. Getlin continued and noted the true battleground lies in contract structure:

Miller knows that $114.5 million figure is hollow. Both common sense and five years of NFL experience tell him playing out the length of a contract at the terms initially agreed upon is rare. If he accepts a deal similar to the one proposed, Miller will be 33 years old when it ends. That's an age when even if a pass-rusher isn’t fading yet, he's often past his career peak.

Toward the end of the deal, Denver would likely ask for a restructured contract. It would then release Miller if the sides couldn't agree on one, depending upon whether his age, performance and the team's salary-cap situation at the time align. Miller would lose a lot of money on the back end—money that was so mouth-watering during those zany cash-tossing times in the spring of 2016.

Miller’s camp knows how the future could unfold. So by focusing on guaranteed money and what he’s being paid over the first three years, as ESPN’s Ed Werder reported, Miller is essentially asking: Why aren’t you guaranteeing me as much as the Giants gave defensive end Olivier Vernon and the Dolphins handed defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh?

The answer is the Broncos are using their leverage gained from the franchise tag. Miller isn’t on the open market, and therefore the highest bidder can't drive up his price.

That reality should matter little to Miller, though, if the reported contract figures are accurate. Those overall numbers Werder, Getlin and Yahoo's Charles Robinson passed along were likely leaked to cast Miller as the villain. But the Broncos’ complete disregard for the current market has led to the contract stalemate.

Consider Vernon's pact, the most recent market-setting pass-rusher contract. As Robinson reported, the deal proposed to Miller is mostly filled with confetti. Denver can erase it quickly, and it is in reality a two-year pact that guarantees Miller only $38.5 million.

It’s easy to see why he feels insulted after we do a tale of the NFL career tape between Miller and Vernon, including that guaranteed money:

Pass-rusher	Age	Games	Sacks	Pro Bowls	All-Pro	Guaranteed $
Von Miller	27	72	60	4	4	$38.5 million
Olivier Vernon	25	64	29	0	0	$52.5 million

Miller is two years older than Vernon, which means something when dollars are being tossed around, but not much in this case.

We’re talking about a player in his prime. Barring severe injury, Miller will remain a top-tier talent throughout the early portion of his next contract, which is why the value of those years is so hotly contested.

And during that time, he’s expected to provide premier play as one of the league’s most skilled pass-rushers for $14 million less in guaranteed money than Vernon received? The same Vernon who’s never been to a Pro Bowl? The same Vernon who’s never been selected as a first- or second-team All-Pro? And, most importantly, the same Vernon who has recorded one double-digit-sack season, while Miller has posted four?

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

That’s Exhibit A for why the Broncos' offer to make Miller the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history in terms of total contract value means little.

Exhibit B is Suh, who was the most dominant player at his position when he signed a deal with the Dolphins in 2015 that includes a little less than $60 million guaranteed. At the time of signing, he led all defensive tackles in sacks since 2010. Miller is on that level as an outside linebacker after he recorded 82 pressures in 2015, according to Pro Football Focus. This tied him for the lead among 3-4 outside linebackers.

Miller is also behind only the Texans’ J.J. Watt on this rather important chart, which shows sack production since he entered the league in 2011:

Pass-rusher	Sacks
J.J. Watt	74.5
Von Miller	60.0
Justin Houston	56.0
DeMarcus Ware	54.5
Jared Allen	53.0

Yet with the current offer, Miller would still be set to earn a whopping $21.5 million less than Suh in guaranteed money.

Finally, there’s Exhibit C, the Chiefs' Justin Houston. He provides the most direct comparison to Miller because Houston plays the same position, was drafted in the same year and is the same age. And, like Miller, injuries have restricted his career sack total of 56 (Houston missed five games in 2013, while Miller missed seven the same year).

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

In 2015, Houston signed a deal that contained $52.5 million in guaranteed money. If Miller gets the three-year guarantee he wants, it will net him roughly $57 million. That is what he’s worth in the current market and what he's earned.

The Broncos are wielding the mighty power of the franchise tag and trying to get Miller to take a hometown discount. The concept of accepting such a discount is strange throughout all professional sports—especially in the NFL, a league where the agreed-upon contract terms are laughably inflated, often to the point that what matters disappears under a pile of puffy nothingness.

The headlines those terms created draw eyeballs, but the guaranteed portion tells a player his true worth. Miller is among the best defensive players in football, and his pay needs to reflect that.

If getting there means sitting out and missing regular-season games, so be it.