It's Time for Cavs, Kevin Love to Decide If They Fit In or Fit Out Together
CLEVELAND — Kevin Love has lost control.
Not of his emotions, which the Cleveland Cavaliers veteran holds dutifully in check, forever shrouded from public view.
Not of his game, still a silky blend of sharp perimeter shooting and precision outlet passes.
No, Love has lost control of his own story, his image, his narrative—and perhaps his career trajectory. And he might have just a few days to seize control again.
It is a quandary born of bad luck as much as anything.
A year ago, Love missed the entirety of the NBA Finals, a six-game loss to the Golden State Warriors, because of a shoulder injury. His first shot at a title was ripped away before he ever had a chance to chase it.
On Wednesday, in an anguishing bit of deja vu, Love was a Finals spectator again—this time sidelined by a concussion while his teammates put together a series-saving, 30-point thrashing of the Warriors in Game 3.
"He's frustrated that he couldn't play," a person who spoke with Love said late Wednesday. "He worked this hard, obviously injured last year, and the last thing he wanted to do was not play."
The theme last June: If Love (and Kyrie Irving) had played, maybe the Cavs win the championship.
The theory this June: If the Cavs win by 30 without Love, maybe he's not so essential—or even a hindrance.
It's impossible to prove or disprove either theory definitively (though one statistical analysis squashes the better-without-Love hypothesis). But that's the problem for Love: his Finals absences have left too much room for speculation, and too little proof of his true worth to LeBron James and the Cavaliers.
Is the Love-Irving-James consortium good enough to win a championship? Or just good enough to win conference titles in a weak East? Is Love worth keeping, as a No. 3 option on a max contract, or could he be parlayed into better-fitting pieces?
The moment of truth has arrived—for Love, for LeBron and head coach Tyronn Lue, for everyone.
With a victory Friday in Game 4, the Cavaliers would tie the series and preserve their title hopes. But a loss would leave them in a 3-1 hole, a likely death knell in the series.
This might well be Love's last chance to prove his value—assuming he gets to play.
The Cavaliers offered no status update Thursday, although the team expects Love to be cleared for Game 4, according to the Akron Beacon Journal's Jason Lloyd. Lloyd also indicated it is "likely" Love will come off the bench, thus leaving intact the lineup that won Game 3, with Richard Jefferson in Love's starting role.
If the Cavaliers were to win again with that lineup, it would only cement the impression that Love is superfluous.
It's a theory that cannot be dismissed outright. In the aftermath of Game 3, the sense among the Warriors was that the Cavaliers were sleeker, quicker and sharper on defense with Jefferson in the lineup and James taking Love's place at power forward.
"Obviously, they're a little quicker, probably a little bit better defensively," said Warriors center Andrew Bogut. "It worked for them."
There was a desperation and a renewed energy about the Cavaliers, and they used it to thoroughly throttle Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green in Game 3. But the lineup change helped, too.
Here was the analysis by a Western Conference scout who watched the game: "R.J. is such a better defender than Love, and drives the ball—much more aggressive player than Love. Defensive switches are better, since there is no one to attack."
And yes, that was a direct indictment of Love's defense.
The Cavaliers played four meaningful games without Love in the regular season (not counting the final game, when the entire lineup rested), and they consistently produced more quality shots in those games, according to one statistical analysis. They also won all four games.
The advanced stats show the Cavaliers are still stronger with Love on the floor than off, according to this analysis by numberFire. But that won't dispel the overall concerns that Love is perhaps not the ideal fit for this team, or against this particular opponent.
| ORtg | eFG% | DRtg | Opp eFG% | Net Rtg | |
| With Love | 113.8 | 53.6 | 104.9 | 50.5 | 8.9 |
| Without Love | 109.4 | 51.1 | 106.1 | 49.2 | 3.3 |
That's the quandary now confronting Lue, the Cavaliers' rookie head coach who has already come under fire for his rotation decisions. Does he stick with Jefferson, to preserve the unit that beat the Warriors? Or does he go back to Love, to restore the lineup that went 12-2 through the Eastern Conference playoffs? Either way, should he limit Love's minutes?
Against the Warriors this season, according to B/R Insights, Love has averaged 8.8 points while shooting 33.3 percent from the field and 23.5 percent from the three-point line. Against the rest of the league, Love averaged 16.4 points, shot 41.6 percent overall and 37.9 percent from three.
Lue's decisions, and the outcome of this series, could have massive implications for all involved. James is playing, as ever, for his legacy—and Cleveland's sanity as a sports town. Lue presumably needs a strong showing to secure his own standing. And Love needs to establish himself not as merely good or valuable, but indispensable.
Two summers ago, fresh off a Finals defeat in Miami, James chose to come home to Cleveland, to start anew with younger stars. He effectively chose Irving as his new running mate and pushed for the trade that brought Love here in exchange for then-rookie Andrew Wiggins.
This was a team designed to contend immediately, while James still had prime years to spend. Every season, every Finals, is an all-or-nothing exercise. And every hiccup raises doubts.
The Cavaliers have flirted with trading Love before, and will almost certainly do so again if they flame out in these Finals.
The chemistry between the Cavaliers' Big Three has been iffy at times but never better than in this postseason. And Love, a sometimes-brooding soul, has come out of his emotional shell in recent months, making a deeper connection with teammates. Twice in the postseason, Love has held team dinners at his home. And he's made great strides integrating his game with James and Irving.
"I've seen him go from a guy that got everything on his own terms, to a guy that pretty much embraces whatever terms he's given and finds a way to excel at it," said Cavaliers veteran James Jones.
Whereas Love had an entire offense catering to him for years in Minnesota, now he "comes in every night and he has to figure it out for himself," Jones said. "And that's a tough adjustment, especially when you've been an elite player for a long time. But that's the maturation…of a superstar."
After the Cavaliers' beatdown of the Warriors on Wednesday, Love was quick with the high-fives and smiles and warm embraces—all signs of a fully integrated star.
It was James who once posed the existential question, believed to be aimed at Love, of whether he would "fit in" or "fit out." Time is running short to determine the answer.
Howard Beck covers the NBA for Bleacher Report and is a co-host of NBA Sunday Tip, 11 a.m.-1 p.m. ET, on SiriusXM Bleacher Report radio. Follow him on Twitter, @HowardBeck.
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