NBA Playoff Predictions We Got All Wrong
When it comes to predicting the NBA playoffs, everyone and their mother seems to have a crystal ball handy.
But nobody's perfect.
Few get called out for the accuracy of their prognostications, and even fewer cop to their own results. Fortunately, there's an easy way to see who got what right—or, in this case, wrong—and it's called the internet.
Here's a look at 10 predictions, presented roughly in chronological order, that have since gone belly up, with explanations for what went wrong and what the prognosticator in question might've missed along the way.
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers Lose to Los Angeles Clippers in Six Games
From yours truly:
"The Blazers will have plenty to prove in their first-round showdown with the Clippers. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum exceeded expectations by boosting the Blazers back into the postseason after a tumultuous summer. It'll be up to Portland's brilliant young backcourt to turn a surprising season into something more than a "happy to be here" playoff cameo.
"
Actual Result: Trail Blazers Beat Clippers in Six Games
Lillard and McCollum did, indeed, come alive against the Los Angeles Clippers. The Portland Trail Blazers' brilliant young backcourt combined to average 41.7 points over the course of those six games.
That number ticked up to 46.8 points over the final four contests, and not just because three of those were played in Rip City. In Game 4, the Clippers lost Chris Paul to a broken finger, then saw Blake Griffin go down with a quad injury.
The latter's demise wasn't entirely a surprise. Griffin played just 35 games during the 2015-16 season on account of problems with that same quad and returned to action in April knowing it wasn't going to heal fully until the offseason.
But Paul's exit was the sort that even Nostradamus might've missed. With CP3 healthy and playing like an MVP, the Clippers could've slithered their way into a second-round matchup with the Golden State Warriors, after pummeling Portland by a combined 41 points in Games 1 and 2.
Without Paul and Griffin? L.A. hardly had a prayer and didn't win another game.
Prediction: Celtics Edge Hawks in Seven With Stout Defense
From SB Nation's Tom Ziller:
"...I think Boston's offense stands a slightly better chance against Atlanta's defense than the Hawks' offense stands against the Celtics' defense. Unless Korver blows up or we get Playoff Teague (certainly possible!), I don't see the Hawks scoring enough to win four games. But this is a tight series, so I'll go Boston in seven.
"
Actual Result: Atlanta Scores Enough in Six-Game Victory
It turns out, Atlanta's offense did fare better against Boston's defense. The Hawks topped the 100-point mark four times, to the Celtics' three instances, during the six-game series.
Jeff Teague wasn't quite up to the playoff speed he's shown in recent seasons, averaging a sturdy 16.5 points and 6.0 assists, though his percentages (40.0 percent from the field, 23.8 percent from three) weren't particularly pretty.
Kyle Korver didn't exactly blow up either, at 12.2 points per game, but he was hot enough from three (45.0 percent) to open up the floor for a balanced Atlanta attack. All five Hawks starters averaged at least as many points as Korver, with Dennis Schroder and Mike Scott each chipping in more than nine per game off the bench.
As always, Atlanta shared the ball to loosen Boston's scrappy defense. By the end of the series, the Hawks had logged 136 assists on 222 makes—61.3 percent, for those keeping score at home.
Prediction: "The Hawks Have A Better Shot At Stopping The Cavs This Time"
From FiveThirtyEight's Andrew Flowers and Neil Paine:
"Statistically, though, the Hawks are hotter on the Cavaliers’ heels now than when the two clubs faced off last season. Going into Game 1 of their series a year ago, our Elo ratings — which estimate a team’s “form” at any given moment based on its wins, scoring margin and strength of schedule — considered Atlanta to be about 2.3 points per game worse than Cleveland. Now, Elo thinks the Hawks have sliced that difference down to about 1.3 points per game in the Cavs’ favor.
"
Actual Result: The Hawks Get Demolished by the Cavs...Again
Technically, the Atlanta Hawks did fare slightly better against the Cleveland Cavaliers this time around. After losing by a combined 53 points in four games to the Cavs during last year's Eastern Conference Finals, the Hawks shaved that margin of defeat in the semifinals all the way down...to 50 points.
Atlanta's improved defense—with Thabo Sefolosha, Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap on hand to check LeBron James—was no match for Cleveland's historic three-point onslaught.
The Cavs hit 50.7 percent of their 38 long-range looks per game, bolstered by an NBA-record 25-trey barrage in Game 2.
That uptick didn't come out of left field. The Cavaliers racked up the second-most three-point makes in the league during the regular season and knocked down 14.3 per game during a first-round sweep over the Detroit Pistons.
And, unlike the 2015 playoffs, Cleveland came into its rematch with Atlanta sporting a healthy Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in the starting lineup, as well as Channing Frye and Richard Jefferson off the bench.
Prediction: Hawks and Hornets Meet in Eastern Conference Finals
From Sports Illustrated's Lee Jenkins:
"The East is a jumble, and if Cleveland trips, the race opens. I am pegging the Hawks and Hornets to make deep runs, for similar reasons. They are supremely well-coached, they shoot the three (Atlanta ranks sixth in three-point makes, Charlotte fourth) and they have played well in the second half of the season (Atlanta has won 17 of its last 24, Charlotte 25 of 34). Maybe it doesn’t help that they also get along, but it can’t hurt.
"
Actual Result: Charlotte Out in Round 1, Atlanta Out in Round 2
The Cavaliers didn't trip during the Eastern Conference playoffs, in part because they weren't tested.
Not by the Hawks, whose sturdy 37.3 percent shooting from three against Cleveland didn't do much to narrow that gap. And certainly not by the Charlotte Hornets, who shot a subpar 30.8 percent from deep in their first-round defeat to the Miami Heat.
To the Hornets' credit, they valiantly fought their way from a 2-0 deficit to a 3-2 series lead against Miami. In the end, though, Kemba Walker and company ran out of gas, while Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic and the more experienced Heat rose to the occasion in Games 6 and 7. All the good chemistry in the world couldn't push Charlotte over the hump, nor could it overcome the gulf in talent between Cleveland and Atlanta.
So, instead of a busted bracket in the East, the NBA wound up with the top two seeds (Cleveland and the Toronto Raptors) facing off in the conference finals once again.
Prediction: Spurs Over Thunder in Five
From Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal:
"...nothing matters more than the strategic clash between the two head coaches. On one end, we have the legendary Gregg Popovich—arguably the greatest coach in the sport's history. Squaring off against him is Billy Donovan, finishing up his rookie year without making too many late-game adjustments (see: Brooks, Scott for reference on what this looks like).
On paper, this is a blowout. But if Donovan has a few tricks up his sleeve that he's been saving until the postseason...
"
Actual Result: Thunder Over Spurs in Six
Donovan had some tricks up his sleeve, after all. The biggest one, both figuratively and literally, was the combination of Steven Adams and Enes Kanter. Those two, seldom used together during the regular season, smashed the San Antonio Spurs' aging front line with their superior size, strength and youthful energy.
| Regular Season | 127 | +5 | 48.3% | 49.8% |
| Playoffs vs. Spurs | 67 | +32 | 50.9% | 41.4% |
Together, they helped the Oklahoma City Thunder recover from a 32-point pounding in Game 1.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook had plenty to do with the shift in fortunes, too. Between that dynamic duo and the team's maturing supporting cast, OKC turned the tables on a historically great team and set itself up for a seismic showdown with the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals.
Prediction: San Antonio Shuts Down Russell Westbrook
From SB Nation's Tom Ziller:
"Russell Westbrook is so much better than Tony Parker right now that it's a little scary. But San Antonio's team defense is monstrous, and between Kawhi [Leonard], Tim Duncan, Danny Green and the rest, Westbrook will be well-contained. I mean, he's still RUSSELL WESTBROOK. He'll drop your jaw a dozen times. But despite the Parker mismatch, the Spurs will find ways to limit his efficiency as much as possible.
"
Actual Result: Westbrook Bullies Spurs
Westbrook dominated Parker, as predicted, almost across the board.
And, in two instances (i.e., Games 1 and 4), the Spurs managed to bottle up Westbrook as a scorer. He put up a total of 28 points on 10-of-37 shooting between those two outings.
But even in those games, San Antonio couldn't contain Westbrook. He tallied nine assists in Game 1 and dropped 15 more in Game 4.
All told, Oklahoma City's superstar guard flew over, around and through every defender San Antonio tossed his way. He shot poorly (37.6 percent from the field, 28.6 percent from three) and turned the ball over (4.5 times per game), but his full body of work—see the graph above—suggests anything but a successful containment effort by the Spurs.
Prediction: Kyle Lowry Will Outplay Kyrie Irving
From SB Nation's Tom Ziller:
"Toronto is going to be ultra-hyped for this, and the Raptors will make it a series. Toronto went 2-1 vs. Cleveland during the regular season and the Lowry-Kyrie pairing must be a source of concern for the Cavaliers. Irving tries on defense, but he doesn't have the nose for stopping physical, aggressive guards like K-Low. I think Lowry gets the better of Irving here.
"
Actual Result: Kyrie Squeaks By Lowry
Kyle Lowry's peaks outpaced Kyrie Irving's, but so did his valleys. Lowry's brilliant efforts for the Toronto Raptors in Games 4 (35 points, five assists) and 6 (35 points, three assists) couldn't erase his substandard showings in Games 1, 2 and 5.
Irving, on the other hand, was a steady stream of production by comparison. He scored at least 23 points in all six games except for one—Game 3, in which he managed a mere 13 points on 3-of-19 from the field.
Overall, Irving scored more points, dished out more assists, earned more free throws, snagged more steals and shot more efficiently from the floor than his opposite in Toronto.
Irving, though, wasn't necessarily responsible for Lowry's inconsistency. The Raptors' All-Star point guard had already been struggling to string together strong performances. He did so just once through the first two rounds of the playoffs—between Games 5 and 7 against the Miami Heat during the conference semifinals, when he poured in 25, 36 and 35 points, respectively, on Toronto's behalf.
Prediction: OKC Outlasts Golden State in a Seven-Game Conference Finals
From NBA.com's Lang Whitaker:
"On the other side of the country, as I predicted on last week’s Hang Time Podcast, I think the Oklahoma City Thunder will win in seven games. I know, my Twitter mentions are going to go crazy, but the Thunder are white hot right now, and Westbrook and Durant are playing at the peak of their powers. Every year, some team gets hot in the postseason. And right now it’s the Oklahoma City Thunder.
"
Actual Result: Warriors Survive Thunder in Seven
So close. So, so, so close.
The Thunder had a trip to the Finals well within their grasp. They owned a 3-1 series lead after inflicting the Warriors with their first back-to-back losses of the entire season. Durant and Westbrook were as dynamic as ever. Golden State had no answer for the towering powers of Steven Adams, Serge Ibaka and Enes Kanter.
But OKC, in all of its emergent brilliance defensively, couldn't hold down Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson forever. In Game 5, the Splash Brothers combined for 58 points. Game 6, Thompson almost single-handedly shot the Dubs out of a fourth-quarter hole on the way to his 41 points and playoff-record 11 threes, with Curry providing 31 points in support.
Come Game 7, it was Curry's time to shine, with 36 points, eight assists and seven three-pointers, none more dramatic than this rainbow over Adams:
All the while, the "Choke-lahoma City" moniker that plagued the Thunder throughout the 2015-16 campaign came back to bite them in a big way.
Durant and Westbrook combined for 10 turnovers in Game 5 and eight more during Game 6, with the two of them shooting 20-of-58 from the field. Durant was efficient in Game 7 (10-of-19 for 27 points), but not enough so to overcome Westbrook's 7-of-21 shooting night—not to mention the 17-of-49 effort put forth by the rest of OKC's rotation.
Prediction: Warriors Crush Cavs in Game 3
From Bleacher Report's Chris Roling:
"Cleveland is hobbled, and Irving and Co. are too weak on the defensive end to stop Golden State's eight-deep attack. Look for the Warriors to help bettors get one step closer to cashing in on those four-game props.
Prediction: Warriors 116, Cavaliers 96
"
Actual Result: Cleveland Rocks Golden State
Whatever setback the Cavaliers may (or may not) have suffered from Kevin Love's absence was smothered by a more energetic, more focused all-around effort.
Cleveland looked nothing like the slow, lazy and confused claque that surrendered 107 points per game through the first two contests of the Finals. The Cavs were on point from the get-go, flying around the floor to contest shots and impose their physical will against the Warriors.
The result? Cleveland gave up just 90 to Golden State on 42.1 percent shooting.
Irving, in particular, was spectacular. He poured in 30 points and eight assists on one end and helped hold Stephen Curry to 13 shots and six assists on the other.
As for the disparity in depth, the Dubs still dominated bench scoring, 33-15. The problem for Golden State stems from the starters, who were outmatched by their Cleveland counterparts for the second time in this series.
Prediction: Stephen Curry Will Redeem Himself From Poor 2015 Finals
From SB Nation's Bram Kincheloe (via colleague Nate Parham):
"Honestly, there's a reason Stephen Curry didn't win Finals MVP last season. He did not play to the pinnacle of his abilities, and voters were stuck between giving the award to LeBron James (who had obviously been the series' best player), or giving it to the man most responsible for trying to stop LeBron, Iguodala. I think Curry remembers his (semi) no-show, and explodes onto the stage. Especially considering he has shown some more razzle dazzle as his knee heals.
"
Actual Result: Curry's Been Worse
Last year, Stephen Curry's slow start to the 2015 NBA Finals still amounted to 24.0 points and 6.3 assists through the first three games. This year, he's looked much more like little brother Seth than the guy who became the league's first-ever unanimous MVP.
Through three games, Curry's accounted for 16.0 points and 4.3 assists in 30.5 minutes per contest. His percentages have been subpar by his standards, but are better than the ones he posted to start last year's championship series.
The biggest difference? Curry isn't getting up shots as frequently as he usually does. After launching a career-high 20.2 field goals per game during the regular season and 19.5 through the Western Conference playoffs, he's chucked it up just 13.0 times a night against Cleveland.
There's still plenty of time for Curry to get cooking in this series. Chances are, he'll do just that at least once before the Larry O'Brien Trophy is lifted.
So far, though, the Cavaliers have bottled up the game's most popular player more effectively than any team has in recent memory.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise cited.
