2016 NBA Mock Draft: Analyzing Riskiest Prospects and 1st-Round Predictions
There are no sure things in the NBA draft, but some prospects come with more risk than others.
For many front offices looking for the next superstar who can carry a team to a championship, upside is all that matters. They want to know what a player can become if everything goes right, not necessarily what type of contributions he can make in his first season.
The problem with this strategy is some of the players with the highest potential also come with the most risk. Here is a breakdown of some of those prospects along with full predictions for the first round of the NBA draft on June 23.
| 1 | Philadelphia 76ers | Ben Simmons | PF | LSU |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Brandon Ingram | SG | Duke |
| 3 | Boston Celtics (via BKN) | Jamal Murray | SG | Kentucky |
| 4 | Phoenix Suns | Dragan Bender | PF | Croatia |
| 5 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Kris Dunn | PG | Providence |
| 6 | New Orleans Pelicans | Buddy Hield | SG | Oklahoma |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets (via NYK) | Marquese Chriss | PF | Washington |
| 8 | Sacramento Kings | Jaylen Brown | SF | California |
| 9 | Toronto Raptors (via DEN) | Jakob Poeltl | C | Utah |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | Demetrius Jackson | PG | Notre Dame |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | Henry Ellenson | PF | Marquette |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Denzel Valentine | SF | Michigan State |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns (via WAS) | Timothe Luwawu | SF | France |
| 14 | Chicago Bulls | Wade Baldwin IV | PG | Vanderbilt |
| 15 | Denver Nuggets (via HOU) | Furkan Korkmaz | SG | Turkey |
| 16 | Boston Celtics (via DAL) | Domantas Sabonis | PF | Gonzaga |
| 17 | Memphis Grizzlies | Ante Zizic | C | Croatia |
| 18 | Detroit Pistons | Deyonta Davis | PF | Michigan State |
| 19 | Denver Nuggets (via POR) | Tyler Ulis | PG | Kentucky |
| 20 | Indiana Pacers | Skal Labissiere | PF | Kentucky |
| 21 | Atlanta Hawks | Thon Maker | C | Australia |
| 22 | Charlotte Hornets | Cheick Diallo | C | Kansas |
| 23 | Boston Celtics | DeAndre' Bembry | SF | Saint Joseph's |
| 24 | Philadelphia 76ers (MIA) | Dejounte Murray | PG | Washington |
| 25 | Los Angeles Clippers | Brice Johnson | PF | North Carolina |
| 26 | Philadelphia 76ers (OKC) | Malachi Richardson | SF | Syracuse |
| 27 | Toronto Raptors | Malik Beasley | SG | Florida State |
| 28 | Phoenix Suns (via CLE) | Taurean Prince | SF | Baylor |
| 29 | San Antonio Spurs | Malcolm Brogdon | SF | Virginia |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Ben Bentil | PF | Providence |
Riskiest Prospects
Dragan Bender, PF, Croatia
It's easy to understand why Dragan Bender will likely be a top-five pick in the upcoming draft. The 7'1", 225-pound forward has the versatility and physical tools to be a game-changer in the NBA on both sides of the ball.
Offensively, he has the range to be a true weapon from the outside while also possessing quality footwork to score consistently in the post. On the other end of the court, his length will allow him to protect the rim and grab rebounds, while his on-ball work will likely only improve once he adds strength.
The problem comes from the fact he struggled to see the floor this past season with Maccabi Tel Aviv, meaning all of his numbers come with a caveat of a small sample size.
Derek Bodner of DraftExpress provided a complete breakdown of the Croatian big man but noted the risk:
"Looking at Bender as a prospect requires a fair amount of projection, not just because of his extreme youth and lack of playing time, but also because he's just scratching the surface on many of his skills. Despite showing a high base on a diverse set of skills, it could be a couple of years before Bender turns that into consistent production at the NBA level.
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The success of Kristaps Porzingis won't affect general managers, but it might help ease the concern from skeptical fans afraid of international prospects. Still, there is plenty of unknown surrounding this raw but talented player.
Skal Labissiere, PF, Kentucky
Unlike Bender, Skal Labissiere had a chance to show what he can do in the spotlight of one of the biggest programs in college basketball. This did not end up like he hoped.
The No. 2 recruit in the 2015 class, per 247Sports' composite rankings, never got going at Kentucky and finished his freshman year averaging just 6.6 points and 3.1 rebounds in 15.8 minutes per game. He wasn't aggressive offensively, got overpowered in the post and inexplicably couldn't grab rebounds.
Despite the struggles, NBA teams are seeing what made him so highly sought-after in high school. Alex Kennedy of Basketball Insiders provided his impressions from Labissiere's individual workout:
With no one else on the floor, scouts are seeing a 7-footer with a smooth jump shot that is consistent out to 15 feet and could get better with time. He also has good instincts on the defensive end and averaged 4.2 blocked shots per 40 minutes as a freshman.
His biggest flaws—offensive technique, defensive rebounding, lack of strength—are all fixable. If he works hard, he can potentially turn into a two-way star in the NBA. Still, it will take a lot of work to get there.
Thon Maker, C, Australia
There is no bigger mystery in the 2016 draft than Thon Maker. He was born in Sudan, moved to Australia and then played high school ball in Canada before attempting to make the leap directly to the NBA.
For a majority of fans, all there is to go on is a few highlight reels on YouTube, which display an incredible skill set:
It's hard to watch clips like this without thinking about Maker as a potential superstar. He looks like a young Kevin Garnett with his ability to make shots from deep, run the floor and finish inside as well as block any shot in his vicinity.
The problem is this skill set doesn't show up as well in actual games. The motor is there, but he is also raw and lacks the fluidity you want to see from a top prospect. In those appearances, he seems less like a star and more of a hustle big man who contributes blocks and rebounds and little else.
While the possibility of Maker reaching his potential should make any team salivate, it's tough to know what you will get from the high school player.
Wade Baldwin IV, PG, Vanderbilt
While big men are usually the ones with the reputation of boom-or-bust prospects, some backcourt players can share this distinction as well.
This is the case with Wade Baldwin IV, who has the physical tools to be a big-time contributor in the NBA but never had the production some would expect of a point guard of his ability.
Baldwin's length is the first thing that stands out to scouts. He measures in at 6'4" with a 6'11 ¼" wingspan, per DraftExpress. This helps him with his on-ball defense and allows him to get more shots off offensively.
So what does he need to improve before reaching the NBA? According to him, everything.
"As I get ready for the next step, I’m working on every part of my game because I don’t see any limits," Baldwin wrote in an essay for CBS Local Sports' "My Life As" series. "I want to be great at every aspect of the game. Some guys are just shooters, some guys are just slashers, but I don’t hold myself to just one category. I want to be the best I can at everything."
The work ethic is good for someone who could be a top point guard at the next level, but it's also clear he's not quite there yet. He has to improve his consistency and decision-making with the ball while also developing more of a mid-range shot.
With that said, don't be surprised if someone in the lottery takes a chance on the upside.
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