Can Spain Make History and Make It a Hat-Trick of Titles at Euro 2016?

Spain’s qualifying campaign for Euro 2016 always looked too good to be true.

At first glance, how could you possibly pick apart a record of nine wins from 10 games, which saw Spain score 23 goals and concede only three to qualify for the tournament as the comfortable winners of their group.

It would seem ever so pedantic to cast aspersions. Even so, delve a little deeper, and Spain’s record quickly loses its impressive sheen.

Vicente del Bosque’s side were gifted a relatively straightforward path to France, being placed in a group alongside such continental lightweights as Belarus, Luxembourg and Macedonia.

Even the more challenging nations of Ukraine and Slovakia would not have caused the Spanish much concern, so the defending champions coasted through qualifying.

It should be noted, however, that Spain lost what had always appeared their most difficult fixture: away to Slovakia.

But until Tuesday, the facade had been maintained that all was good in the Spain camp. The bookmakers still have them as one of the favourites to win the tournament in France at 5-1, per Odds Shark.

However, Georgia exposed the surprising brittleness of the Spanish on Tuesday night, when they inflicted the embarrassment of a 1-0 defeat on them in Madrid.

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This was Georgia, ranked 137th in the world, who will not be in France this summer and who have not won a game since 2014—and that was against Gibraltar.

There will be a temptation to dismiss the result as a mere blip, just a pre-tournament tune-up with players going through the motions. But the truth is it laid bare some of the problems in the Spain squad.

Can Spain recapture the form and spirit that saw them triumph at Euro 2008 and Euro 2012, with a World Cup thrown in for good measure in 2010, or will they succumb to the same problems as they did in Brazil two years ago, failing to make it out of the group stage?

As well as Spain execute their style of play—they've patented possession football over the last six years—the truth is teams have learned how to stop them.

Sit back, let them have the ball and then break at pace is how you deal with Spain, and even Georgia worked that out to great effect.

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Del Bosque is aware of this, and he recently stressed how his side must vary their approach to games; patient buildup has its place, but there needs to be more variety, passing over bigger distances, more counter-attacks and simply more surprises.

It would help if Spain had more strikers to lead this approach and be the focus of a more direct style of play, but Del Bosque has only selected two in his squad.

Aritz Aduriz might be 35, but he has improved with age and has just enjoyed the most prolific season of his career, scoring 36 goals for Athletic Bilbao. However, he remains inexperienced in international football and represents a risk.

Alvaro Morata, who has flourished over the last two seasons in Italy with Juventus, should fill the striker’s role, but he goes into the tournament struggling with injury. 

Spain, with these limitations, must even look at the many striking options available to England with a degree of envy. 

For all the wealth of talent in the Spanish midfield, the paucity of choice up front is an obvious weakness, which could undermine their chances in France.

This didn’t matter when Spain won Euro 2012, when they largely played without a conventional striker. But Del Bosque seems reluctant to repeat this and likely intends to play with a No. 9 leading the line.

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Of course, retreat a little further back on the pitch, and the forecast for Spain begins to significantly improve, especially with such an illustrious midfield.

Any side that can afford not to select midfielders of the calibre of Saul Niguez, Juan Mata, Santi Cazorla and Isco has to be taken seriously.

In their absence, it will be left to Sergio Busquets, Cesc Fabregas, David Silva, Andres Iniesta and Koke to probe and plot for Spain from the centre of the pitch.

While behind them, the likely defensive unit of David De Gea, Juanfran, Gerard Pique, Sergio Ramos and Jordi Alba will make Spain difficult to overcome. 

Spain have the experience and players to complete a hat-trick of European Championship triumphs, but after their humbling in Brazil, it would also not be a huge surprise to see them bundled out early.

For such an accomplished and successful group, real doubts continue to plague Spain with little time left to banish them.