NBA Free Agents 2016: Predictions for Kevin Durant, Hassan Whiteside and More
The NBA Finals are in progress, but it's not too early to discuss some hot storylines that will occur once the season is over.
While the draft comes first, free-agency decisions loom large for many teams in the league this summer. Some squads are counting on their own key players to re-sign, some are looking to swipe other teams' impact players on the market and others are looking to do both.
Let's break down the situations of three of the biggest free agents and then determine where they'll end up.
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder (Unrestricted)
Every single team in the NBA wants to sign Kevin Durant this summer. He's probably the third-best basketball player in the world and has a versatile skill set that can make any team better.
Where does KD want to go, though? That gets tougher to decipher.
The Oklahoma City Thunder forward will be 28 years old by the start of next season, and it's likely that the possibility he'll never win a championship is starting to weigh on him. He's had some close calls, including this season's heartbreaking seven-game Western Conference Finals loss to the Golden State Warriors, but injuries and an overall inability to finish the deal have plagued him and his team throughout the past several years.
Because of that, it's safe to assume that any team Durant can't make an immediate title contender is out of the question.
But why not stay with his own squad? You know, the Thunder team that just had a nine-game playoff stretch in which it went 7-2 against healthy San Antonio Spurs and Warriors squads (average number of regular-season wins: 70) and outscored them by a total of 60 points during that span.
According to Sporting News' Sean Deveney, one source who has worked with Durant said the following about him:
"He is not the kind of guy who wants to fiddle around in free agency and sort of play the system that way. That is not his personality. He likes stability and it is kind of a gamble to be taking a short contract and then trying to come back and do it all over again in a year. That’s the other thing. He is not someone who wants to go through this twice, I really don't think. It's no sure thing.
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Durant has been with the same franchise for nine seasons, the team is still young and it's always a title contender when he's healthy. Expect him to opt for the security of a long-term deal with his current squad.
Prediction: Durant re-signs with the Thunder on a five-year max deal.
Hassan Whiteside, Miami Heat (Unrestricted)
Hassan Whiteside established himself as a top-five center in the NBA during the 2015-16 season. After the All-Star break, the Miami Heat center averaged 17.5 points, 13.3 rebounds and 3.4 blocks per game while shooting 59.2 percent from the field and a much-improved 75.0 percent from the free-throw line. He ended the campaign with a third-place finish in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Now, teams must decide how much the talented but temperamental big man is worth in free agency.
According to the Miami Herald's Barry Jackson, Whiteside likes Miami and wants to re-sign with the Heat "if all things are equal financially."
The problem is that they might not be.
Jackson also reported that Miami's front office is hoping to persuade the 26-year-old center to sign for less than a maximum deal. Considering Whiteside is quickly improving and many teams have heaps of cash to spend this summer, it's likely that several teams will be willing to offer him max money.
Whiteside also has a history of wanting respect. He was adamant last season that the developers of NBA 2K15 notice his improvement and reward him for it, according to Bleacher Report's Brian Mazique.
Also, at the end of the 2015-16 campaign, he felt disrespected when he realized he was third in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
He said the following, per the Sun Sentinel's Ira Winderman: "I never get any credit for anything I do. It is what it is, bro."
If he feels slighted by the Heat's marginally cheaper offer, don't be surprised if he looks elsewhere.
The Los Angeles Lakers have frequently struck out on big-name free agents in recent years, but they have plenty of money and a franchise center role to offer him in Tinseltown. He'll take it.
Prediction: Whiteside signs with the Lakers on a four-year max deal.
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks (Unrestricted)
The Atlanta Hawks need to change something if they're going to get past being just "pretty good." Unfortunately, they aren't a big free-agent destination, and they don't have any superstars at the moment. Paul Millsap is the closest.
But letting Al Horford go without a fight this summer would be a mistake for Atlanta. The 30-year-old center doesn't dominate his opponents, but he consistently outplays his matchup and excels in nearly every area of the game (rebounding may be a slight weakness) with an athletic 6'10" frame.
While Atlanta should do its best to bring back Horford, whether he returns is up to him. By all indications, he loves the organization and wants to stay. Per ESPN.com's Ohm Youngmisuk, Horford said the following in May:
"There are a lot of things that we need to address. But the biggest thing for me is I feel good here. I have a great relationship with Coach. That is important to me and my teammates. Atlanta is a city that welcomed me from the first day. ... I like the way the team is going, I feel like we can win here.
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The fact that Horford uses "we" is telling. Many free agents refer to their teams as "they" and are noncommittal, but not Big Al. While squads such as the Boston Celtics and Houston Rockets will likely make a run at him, Horford seems like the type who prioritizes stability.
The outcome of the veteran center's decision could change if the Hawks' deal for the Philadelphia 76ers' Nerlens Noel works out, per The Vertical's Shams Charania. Otherwise, Atlanta will make sure it locks up its four-time All-Star with a max deal.
Prediction: Horford re-signs with the Hawks on a three-year max deal.
